skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: Analyzing the Losses and Gains of a Land Category: Insights from the Total Operating Characteristic
This manuscript provides guidance concerning how to use the Total Operating Characteristic (TOC) when (1) analyzing change through time, (2) ranking a categorical independent variable, and (3) constraining the extent for a gaining category. The illustrative variable is the marsh land-cover category in the Plum Island Ecosystems of northeastern Massachusetts, USA. The data are an elevation map and maps showing the land categories of water, marsh, and upland in 1938, 1971, and 2013. There were losses and gains near the edge of the marsh between 1938 and 1972 and between 1972 and 2013. The TOC curves show that marsh gained most intensively at intermediate elevations during the first time interval and then had a weaker association with elevation during the second time interval. Marsh gains more intensively from water than from upland during both time intervals. The TOC curves also demonstrate that the marsh gains occurred where marsh was previously lost, a phenomenon called Alternation. Furthermore, eliminating far distances and extreme elevations from the spatial extent decreased the area under the curve (AUC) for distance and increased the AUC for elevation. We invite scientists to use the TOC because the TOC is easier to interpret and shows more information than the Relative Operative Characteristic.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2224608
PAR ID:
10592187
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Land
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Land
Volume:
13
Issue:
8
ISSN:
2073-445X
Page Range / eLocation ID:
1177
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; ; ; ; (, Global Change Biology)
    Abstract Due to their position at the land–sea interface, barrier islands are vulnerable to both oceanic and atmospheric climate change‐related drivers. In response to relative sea‐level rise, barrier islands tend to migrate landward via overwash processes which deposit sediment onto the backbarrier marsh, thus maintaining elevation above sea level. In this paper, we assess the importance of interior upland vegetation and sediment transport (from upland to marsh) on the movement of the marsh–upland boundary in a transgressive barrier system along the mid‐Atlantic Coast. We hypothesize that recent woody expansion is altering the rate of marsh to upland conversion. Using Landsat imagery over a 32 year time period (1984–2016), we quantify transitions between land cover (bare, grassland, woody vegetation, and marsh) and the marsh–upland boundary. We find that the Virginia Barrier Islands have both gains and losses in backbarrier marsh and upland, with 19% net loss from the system during the timeframe of the study and increased variance in marsh to upland conversion. This is consistent with recent work indicating a shift toward increasing rates of landward barrier island migration. Despite a net loss of upland area, macroclimatic winter warming resulted in 41% increase in woody vegetation in protected, low‐elevation areas, introducing new ecological scenarios that increase resistance to sediment movement from upland to marsh. Our analysis demonstrates how the interplay between elevation and interior island vegetative cover influences landward migration of the boundary between upland and marsh (a previously underappreciated indicator that an island is migrating), and thus, the importance of including ecological processes in the island interior into coastal modeling of barrier island migration and sediment movement across the barrier landscape. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; ; (, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences)
    Abstract Sea level rise is leading to the rapid migration of marshes into coastal forests and other terrestrial ecosystems. Although complex biophysical interactions likely govern these ecosystem transitions, projections of sea level driven land conversion commonly rely on a simplified “threshold elevation” that represents the elevation of the marsh‐upland boundary based on tidal datums alone. To determine the influence of biophysical drivers on threshold elevations, and their implication for land conversion, we examined almost 100,000 high‐resolution marsh‐forest boundary elevation points, determined independently from tidal datums, alongside hydrologic, ecologic, and geomorphic data in the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the U.S. located along the mid‐Atlantic coast. We find five‐fold variations in threshold elevation across the entire estuary, driven not only by tidal range, but also salinity and slope. However, more than half of the variability is unexplained by these variables, which we attribute largely to uncaptured local factors including groundwater discharge, microtopography, and anthropogenic impacts. In the Chesapeake Bay, observed threshold elevations deviate from predicted elevations used to determine sea level driven land conversion by as much as the amount of projected regional sea level rise by 2050. These results suggest that local drivers strongly mediate coastal ecosystem transitions, and that predictions based on elevation and tidal datums alone may misrepresent future land conversion. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; ; ; (, Quaternary Research)
    Abstract Postglacial emergence curves are used to infer mantle rheology, delimit ice extent, and test models of the solid Earth response to changing ice and water loads. Such curves are rarely produced by direct dating of land emergence; rather, most rely on the presence of radiocarbon-datable organic material and inferences made between the age of sedimentary deposits and landforms indicative of former sea level. Here, we demonstrate a new approach,10Be dating, to determine rates of postglacial land emergence in two different settings. In southern Greenland (Narsarsuaq/Igaliku), we date directly the exposure, as relative sea level fell, of gravel beaches and rocky outcrops allowing determination of rapid, post–Younger Dryas emergence. In western Greenland (Kangerlussuaq), we constrain Holocene isostatic response by dating the sequential stripping of terrace sediment driven by land-surface uplift, relative sea-level fall, and resulting fluvial incision. The technique we employ provides high temporal and elevation resolution important for quantifying rapid emergence immediately after deglaciation and less rapid uplift during the middle Holocene.10Be-constrained emergence curves can improve knowledge of relative sea-level change by dating land emergence along rocky coasts, at elevations and locations where radiocarbon-datable sediments are not present, and without the lag time needed for organic material to accumulate. 
    more » « less
  4. ; ; (, Geophysical Research Letters)
    Abstract The lateral extent and vertical stability of salt marshes experiencing rising sea levels depend on interacting drivers and feedbacks with potential for nonlinear behaviors. A two‐dimensional transect model was developed to examine changes in marsh and upland forest lateral extent and to explore controls on marsh inland transgression. Model behavior demonstrates limited and abrupt forest retreat with long‐term upland boundary migration rates controlled by slope, sea‐level rise (SLR), high water events, and biotic‐abiotic interactions. For low to moderate upland slopes the landward marsh edge is controlled by the interaction of these inundation events and forest recovery resulting in punctuated transgressive events. As SLR rates increase, the importance of the timing and frequency of water‐level deviations diminishes, and migration rates revert back to a slope‐SLR‐dominated process. 
    more » « less
  5. ; (, Remote Sensing)
    The Total Operating Characteristic (TOC) measures how the ranks of an index variable distinguish between presence and absence in a binary reference variable. Previous methods to generate the TOC required the reference data to derive from a census or a simple random sample. However, many researchers apply stratified random sampling to collect reference data because stratified random sampling is more efficient than simple random sampling for many applications. Our manuscript derives a new methodology that uses stratified random sampling to generate the TOC. An application to flood mapping illustrates how the TOC compares the abilities of three indices to diagnose water. The TOC shows visually and quantitatively each index’s diagnostic ability relative to baselines. Results show that the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index has the greatest diagnostic ability, while the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index has diagnostic ability greater than the Normalized Difference Water Index at the threshold where the Diagnosed Presence equals the Abundance of water. Some researchers consider only one accuracy metric at only one threshold, whereas the TOC allows visualization of several metrics at all thresholds. The TOC gives more information and clearer interpretation compared to the popular Relative Operating Characteristic. Our software generates the TOC from a census, simple random sample, or stratified random sample. The TOC Curve Generator is free as an executable file at a website that our manuscript gives. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email