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Abstract Salinity is an essential proxy for estimating the global net freshwater input into the ocean. Due to the limited spatial and temporal coverage of the existing salinity measurements, previous studies of global salinity changes focused mostly on the surface and upper oceans. Here, we examine global ocean salinity changes and ocean vertical salt fluxes over the full depth in a dynamically consistent and data-constrained ocean state estimate. The changes of the horizontally averaged salinity display a vertically layered structure, consistent with the profiles of the ocean vertical salt fluxes. For salinity changes in the relatively well-observed upper ocean, the contribution of vertical exchange of salt can be on the same order of the net surface freshwater input. The vertical redistribution of salt thus should be considered in inferring changes in global ocean salinity and the hydrological cycle from the surface and upper ocean measurements.
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Estimating freshwater flux amplification with ocean tracers via linear response theory
Abstract. Accurate estimation of changes in the global hydrological cycle over the historical record is important for model evaluation and understanding future trends. Freshwater flux trends cannot be accurately measured directly, so quantification of change often relies on ocean salinity trends. However, anthropogenic forcing has also induced ocean transport change, which imprints on salinity. We find that this ocean transport affects the surface salinity of the saltiest regions (the subtropics) while having little impact on the surface salinity in other parts of the globe. We present a method based on linear response theory which accounts for the regional impact of ocean circulation changes while estimating freshwater fluxes from ocean tracers. Testing on data from the Community Earth System Model large ensemble, we find that our method can recover the true amplification of freshwater fluxes, given thresholded statistical significance values for salinity trends. We apply the method to observations and conclude that from 1975–2019, the hydrological cycle has amplified by 5.04±1.27 % per degree Celsius of surface warming.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2048576
- PAR ID:
- 10597875
- Publisher / Repository:
- Earth Syst. Dynamics
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth System Dynamics
- Volume:
- 15
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 2190-4987
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 323 to 339
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-323-2024
