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Earth system models suggest that anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century with light-limited regions becoming more productive and nutrient-limited regions less productive. Anthropogenic climate change can influence not only the mean state but also the internal variability around the mean state, yet little is known about how internal variability in marine phytoplankton will change with time. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on internal variability in marine phytoplankton biomass from 1920 to 2100 using the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble (CESM1-LE). We find a significant decrease in the internal variability of global phytoplankton carbon biomass under a high emission (RCP8.5) scenario and heterogeneous regional trends. Decreasing internal variability in biomass is most apparent in the subpolar North Atlantic and North Pacific. In these high-latitude regions, bottom-up controls (e.g., nutrient supply, temperature) influence changes in biomass internal variability. In the biogeochemically critical regions of the Southern Ocean and the equatorial Pacific, bottom-up controls (e.g., light, nutrients) and top-down controls (e.g., grazer biomass) affect changes in phytoplankton carbon internal variability, respectively. Our results suggest that climate mitigation and adaptation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes (e.g., fisheries, marine carbon cycling) should also consider changes in phytoplankton internal variability driven by anthropogenic warming, particularly on regional scales.
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Food web structure for high carbon retention in marine plankton communities
Total annual net primary productions in marine and terrestrial ecosystems are similar. However, a large portion of the newly produced marine phytoplankton biomass is converted to carbon dioxide because of predation. Which food web structure retains high carbon biomass in the plankton community in the global ocean? In 6954 individual samples or locations containing phytoplankton, unicellular protozooplankton, and multicellular metazooplankton in the global ocean, phytoplankton-dominated bottom-heavy pyramids held higher carbon biomass than protozooplankton-dominated middle-heavy diamonds or metazooplankton-dominated top-heavy inverted pyramids. Bottom-heavy pyramids predominated, but the high predation impact by protozooplankton on phytoplankton or the vertical migration of metazooplankton temporarily changed bottom-heavy pyramids to middle-heavy diamonds or top-heavy inverted pyramids but returned to bottom-heavy pyramids shortly. This finding has profound implications for carbon retention by plankton communities in the global ocean.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2224726
- PAR ID:
- 10598525
- Publisher / Repository:
- Science Advances
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science Advances
- Volume:
- 9
- Issue:
- 50
- ISSN:
- 2375-2548
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adk0842
