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Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have long been recognized as some of the planet’s most vulnerable areas to climate change, notably to rising sea levels and coastal extremes. They have been crucial in raising ambitions to keep global warming below 1.5 °C and in advancing the difficult debate on loss and damage. Still, quantitative estimates of loss and damage for SIDS under different mitigation targets are lacking. Here we carry out an assessment of future flood risk from slow-onset sea-level rise and episodic sea-level extremes along the coastlines of SIDS worldwide. We show that by the end of this century, without adaptation, climate change would amplify present direct economic damages from coastal flooding by more than 14 times under high-emissions scenarios. Keeping global warming below 1.5 °C could avoid almost half of unmitigated damage, depending on the region. Achieving this climate target, however, would still not prevent several SIDS from suffering economic losses that correspond to considerable shares of their GDP, probably leading to forced migration from low-lying coastal zones. Our results underline that investments in adaptation and sustainable development in SIDS are urgently needed, as well as dedicated support to assisting developing countries in responding to loss and damage due to climate change.
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This content will become publicly available on January 1, 2026
Knowledge Sharing and Capacity Development to Promote Early Career Ocean Professionals in Small Island Developing States: The SmartNet Approach
Given the challenges Small Island Developing States (SIDS) face in achieving ocean sustainability, the Barcelona Statement issued after the 2024 Ocean Decade Conference identified further investment in capacity development of SIDS and other underrepresented groups as one of the high-priority crosscutting issues (https://oceanexpert.org/document/34098). The statement calls for transforming international organizations by expanding existing capacity development services beyond their conventional geographical areas.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2318309
- PAR ID:
- 10599691
- Publisher / Repository:
- The Oceanography Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Oceanography
- ISSN:
- 1042-8275
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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