More Like this

1. Long- and short-term coupling of sea surface temperature and atmospheric CO ₂ during the late Paleocene and early Eocene

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2318779121  

   Harper, Dustin T; Hönisch, Bärbel; Bowen, Gabriel J; Zeebe, Richard E; Haynes, Laura L; Penman, Donald E; Zachos, James C (September 2024, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   The late Paleocene and early Eocene (LPEE) are characterized by long-term (million years, Myr) global warming and by transient, abrupt (kiloyears, kyr) warming events, termed hyperthermals. Although both have been attributed to greenhouse (CO₂) forcing, the longer-term trend in climate was likely influenced by additional forcing factors (i.e., tectonics) and the extent to which warming was driven by atmospheric CO₂remains unclear. Here, we use a suite of new and existing observations from planktic foraminifera collected at Pacific Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1209 and 1210 and inversion of a multiproxy Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric CO₂over a 6-Myr interval. Our reconstructions span the initiation of long-term LPEE warming (~58 Ma), and the two largest Paleogene hyperthermals, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Ma) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM-2, ~54 Ma). Our results show strong coupling between CO₂and temperature over the long- (LPEE) and short-term (PETM and ETM-2) but differing Pacific climate sensitivities over the two timescales. Combined CO₂and carbon isotope trends imply the carbon source driving CO₂increase was likely methanogenic, organic, or mixed for the PETM and organic for ETM-2, whereas a source with higher δ¹³C values (e.g., volcanic degassing) is associated with the long-term LPEE. Reconstructed emissions for the PETM (5,800 Gt C) and ETM-2 (3,800 Gt C) are comparable in mass to future emission scenarios, reinforcing the value of these events as analogs of anthropogenic change. 

   more » « less
2. Proxy‐Model Comparison for the Eocene‐Oligocene Transition in Southern High Latitudes

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022PA004496  

   Tibbett, Emily J.; Burls, Natalie J.; Hutchinson, David K.; Feakins, Sarah J. (February 2023, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   Abstract The Eocene‐Oligocene transition (EOT) marks the shift from greenhouse to icehouse conditions at 34 Ma, when a permanent ice sheet developed on Antarctica. Climate modeling studies have recently assessed the drivers of the transition globally. Here we revisit those experiments for a detailed study of the southern high latitudes in comparison to the growing number of mean annual sea surface temperature (SST) and mean air temperature (MAT) proxy reconstructions, allowing us to assess proxy‐model temperature agreement and refine estimates for the magnitude of thepCO₂forcing of the EOT. We compile and update published proxy temperature records on and around Antarctica for the late Eocene (38–34 Ma) and early Oligocene (34–30 Ma). Compiled SST proxies cool by up to 3°C and MAT by up to 4°C between the timeslices. Proxy data were compared to previous climate model simulations representing pre‐ and post‐EOT, typically forced with a halving ofpCO₂. We scaled the model outputs to identify the magnitude ofpCO₂change needed to drive a commensurate change in temperature to best fit the temperature proxies. The multi‐model ensemble needs a 30 or 33% decrease inpCO₂, to best fit MAT or SST proxies respectively. These proxy‐model intercomparisons identify decliningpCO₂as the primary forcing of EOT cooling, with a magnitude (200 or 243 ppmv) approaching that of thepCO₂proxies (150 ppmv). However individual model estimates span a decrease of 66–375 ppmv, thus proxy‐model uncertainties are dominated by model divergence. 

   more » « less
3. A Pliocene Precipitation Isotope Proxy‐Model Comparison Assessing the Hydrological Fingerprints of Sea Surface Temperature Gradients

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021PA004401  

   Knapp, Scott; Burls, Natalie J.; Dee, Sylvia; Feng, Ran; Feakins, Sarah J.; Bhattacharya, Tripti (December 2022, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   Abstract The Pliocene offers insights into future climate, with near‐modern atmospheric pCO₂and global mean surface temperature estimated to be 3–4°C above pre‐industrial. However, the hydrological response differs between future global warming and early Pliocene climate model simulations. This discrepancy results from the use of reduced meridional and zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, based on foraminiferal Mg/Ca and Alkenone proxy evidence, to force the early Pliocene simulation. Subsequent, SST reconstructions based on the organic proxy TEX₈₆, have found warmer temperatures in the warm pool, bringing the magnitude of the gradient reductions into dispute. We design an independent test of Pliocene SST scenarios and their hydrological cycle “fingerprints.” We use an isotope‐enabled General Circulation Model, iCAM5, to model the distribution of water isotopes in precipitation in response to four climatological SST and sea‐ice fields representing modern, abrupt 4 × CO₂, late Pliocene and early Pliocene climates. We conduct a proxy‐model comparison with all the available precipitation isotope proxy data, and we identify target regions that carry precipitation isotopic fingerprints of SST gradients as priorities for additional proxy reconstructions. We identify two regions with distinct precipitation isotope (D/H) fingerprints resulting from reduced SST gradients: the Maritime Continent (D‐enriched due to reduced convective rainfall) and the Sahel (wetter, more deep convection, D‐depleted). The proxy‐model comparison using available plant wax reconstructions, mostly from Africa, is promising but inconclusive. Additional proxy reconstructions are needed in both target regions and in much of the world for significant tests of SST scenarios and dynamical linkages to the hydrological cycle. 

   more » « less
4. Hot Tropical Temperatures During the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum Revealed by Paired In Situ δ ¹³ C and Mg/Ca Measurements on Individual Planktic Foraminifer Shells

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023PA004834  

   Kozdon, Reinhard; Kelly, D Clay (August 2024, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   The Paleocene‐Eocene thermal maximum (PETM, 56 Ma) is an ancient global warming event closely coupled to the release of massive amounts of d13C‐depleted carbon into the ocean‐atmosphere system, making it an informative analogue for future climate change. However, uncertainty still exists regarding tropical sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) in open ocean settings during the PETM. Here, we present the first paired d13C:Mg/Ca record derived in situ from relatively well‐preserved subdomains inside individual planktic foraminifer shells taken from a PETM record recovered in the central Pacific Ocean at Ocean Drilling Program Site 865. The d13C signature of each individual shell was used to confirm calcification during the PETM, thereby reducing the unwanted effects of sediment mixing that secondarily smooth paleoclimate signals constructed with fossil planktic foraminifer shells. This method of “isotopic screening” reveals that shells calcified during the PETM have elevated Mg/Ca ratios reflecting exceptionally warm tropical SSTs (∼33–34°C). The increase in Mg/Ca ratios suggests ∼6°C of warming, which is more congruent with SST estimates derived from organic biomarkers in PETM records at other tropical sites. These extremely warm SSTs exceed the maximum temperature tolerances of modern planktic foraminifers. Important corollaries to the findings of this study are (a) the global signature of PETM warmth was uniformly distributed across different latitudes, (b) our Mg/Ca‐based SST record may not capture peak PETM warming at tropical Site 865 due to the thermally‐induced ecological exclusion of planktic foraminifers, and (c) the record of such transitory ecological exclusion has been obfuscated by post‐depositional sediment mixing at Site 865. 

   more » « less
5. Enhanced Poleward Flux of Atmospheric Moisture to the Weddell Sea Region (ODP Site 690) During the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2019PA003811  

   Kozdon, Reinhard; Penman, Donald E.; Kelly, D. C.; Zachos, J. C.; Fournelle, John H.; Valley, J. W. (June 2020, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   Abstract Earth's hydrological cycle was profoundly perturbed by massive carbon emissions during an ancient (56 Ma) global warming event referred to as the Paleocene‐Eocene thermal maximum (PETM). One approach to gaining valuable insight into the response of the hydrological cycle is to construct sea‐surface salinity (SSS) records that can be used to gauge changes in the rates of evaporation and precipitation during the PETM in such climatically sensitive areas as the circum‐Antarctic region. Here, we pair oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) and magnesium‐calcium (Mg/Ca) measurements to reconstruct PETM sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) and δ¹⁸O composition of seawater (δ¹⁸O_sw) at austral Site 690 (Weddell Sea). Several discrepancies emerge between the δ¹⁸O‐ and Mg/Ca‐based SST records, with the latter indicating that the earliest PETM was punctuated by a short‐lived ~4°C increase in local SSTs. Conversion of the δ¹⁸O_swvalues to SSS reveals a ~4 ppt decrease ~50 ka after peak PETM warming at Site 690. This negative SSS (δ¹⁸O_sw) anomaly coincides with a prominent minimum in the planktic foraminifer δ¹⁸O record published for the Site 690 PETM section. Thus, our revised interpretation posits that this δ¹⁸O minimum signals a decrease in surface‐ocean δ¹⁸O_swfostered by a transient increase in mean annual precipitation in the Weddell Sea region. The results of this study corroborate the view that the poleward flux of atmospheric moisture temporarily increased during a distinctive stage of the PETM. 

   more » « less