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Abstract Many plant species alter both the timing and duration of their flowering in response to changing climate and often differ with respect to the magnitudes or directions of their phenological responses to climate changes. These shifts may have cumulative effects on the diversity of species simultaneously in flower throughout a given flowering season, resulting in periods of disproportionately high or low species richness of actively flowering community members relative to historical conditions. Although the potential for such changes to occur is well appreciated, few studies have assessed how climate trends have affected patterns of co‐flowering synchrony due to a scarcity of long‐term datasets documenting flowering duration across species in a community. In this study, we leveraged 1,908,706 plant specimens collected in flower to model the effects of warming throughout the past century on the daily species richness of actively flowering species by developing species‐specific phenoclimate models for 1848 plant species inhabiting 16 well‐documented plant communities across California. These communities are located across a variety of ecoregions, ranging from coastal marshes and grasslands to deserts, chaparral shrublands, and coniferous forests. The recurring patterns in the modeled community‐level flowering displays indicate that recent warming has consistently shortened the period during which many species flower concurrently, and that the bloom season has advanced by nearly 5 days on average. Accordingly, within every flora, recent warming was predicted to increase the daily species richness of flowers early in the local growing season, with corresponding reductions in species richness of flowers later in the growing season. Notably, patterns of change in community‐level bloom displays were driven primarily by differences among species in the timing of flowering onset, as termination dates tended to advance in unison with onset dates, resulting in minor changes to flowering duration among species.
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Scaling flowering onset and duration responses among species predicts phenological community reassembly under warming
Abstract Global warming has caused widespread shifts in plant phenology among species in the temperate zone, but it is unclear how population‐level responses will scale to alter the structure of the flowering season at the community level. This knowledge gap exists largely because—while the climatic sensitivity of first flowering within populations has been studied extensively—little is known about the responsiveness of the duration of a population's flowering period. This limits our ability to anticipate how the entire flowering periods of co‐occurring species may continue to change under warming. Nonetheless, flowering sensitivity to temperature often varies predictably among species between and within communities, which may help forecast temperature‐related changes to a community's flowering season. However, no studies—empirical or theoretical—have assessed how patterns of variation in flowering sensitivity among species could scale to alter community‐level flowering changes under warming. Here, we provide a conceptual overview of how variation in the sensitivity of flowering onset and duration among species can mediate changes to a community's flowering season due to warming trends. Specifically, we focus on the effects of differences in (1) the mean sensitivity of flowering onset and duration among communities and (2) the sensitivity of flowering onsets and durations among species flowering sequentially through the season within a community. We evaluated the manner and degree in which these forms of between‐species variation in sensitivity might affect the structure of the flowering season—both independently and interactively—using simulations, which covered a wide but empirically informed range of parameter values and combinations representing distinct community‐level patterns. Our findings predict that communities across the temperate zone will exhibit varied and often contrasting flowering responses to warming across biomes, underscoring that accounting for the temperature sensitivity of both phenological onset and duration among species is essential for understanding community‐level flowering dynamics in a warming world.
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- PAR ID:
- 10599980
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecosphere
- Volume:
- 16
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2150-8925
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Global change is altering the phenology and geographic ranges of flowering species, with potentially profound consequences for the timing and composition of floral resources and the seasonal structure of ecological communities. However, shifts in flowering phenology and species distributions have historically been studied in isolation due to disciplinary silos and limited data, leaving critical gaps in our understanding of their combined effects. To address this, we used millions of herbarium and occurrence records to model phenological and range shifts for 2,837 plant species in the United States across historical, recent, and projected climate and land cover conditions, enabling us to scale responses from species to communities, and from local to continental geographies. Our analysis reveals that communities are shifting toward earlier, longer flowering seasons in most biomes, with co-flowering species richness increasing at the edges of the season and declining at historical peaks—trends projected to intensify under ongoing environmental trends. Although these shifts operate concurrently, they affect different aspects of the flowering season: phenological changes primarily alter seasonality—its start, end, and duration—and co-flowering diversity at the edges of the season, while range shifts more strongly influence co-flowering species richness during historical seasonal peaks, and attributes tied to community composition, such as patterns of flowering synchrony among co-occurring species. Together, these results demonstrate that shifts in phenology and species ranges act synergistically to restructure the flowering seasons across North America, revealing wide variation in the pace and magnitude of change among biomes.more » « less
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Summary Changes to flowering phenology are a key response of plants to climate change. However, we know little about how these changes alter temporal patterns of reproductive overlap (i.e. phenological reassembly).We combined long‐term field (1937–2012) and herbarium records (1850–2017) of 68 species in a flowering plant community in central North America and used a novel application of Bayesian quantile regression to estimate changes to flowering season length, altered richness and composition of co‐flowering assemblages, and whether phenological shifts exhibit seasonal trends.Across the past century, phenological shifts increased species' flowering durations by 11.5 d on average, which resulted in 94% of species experiencing greater flowering overlap at the community level. Increases to co‐flowering were particularly pronounced in autumn, driven by a greater tendency of late season species to shift the ending of flowering later and to increase flowering duration.Our results demonstrate that species‐level phenological shifts can result in considerable phenological reassembly and highlight changes to flowering duration as a prominent, yet underappreciated, effect of climate change. The emergence of an autumn co‐flowering mode emphasizes that these effects may be season‐dependent.more » « less
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ABSTRACT Global change is altering the phenology and geographic ranges of flowering species, with potentially profound consequences for the timing and composition of floral resources and the seasonal structure of ecological communities. However, shifts in flowering phenology and species distributions have historically been studied in isolation due to disciplinary silos and limited data, leaving critical gaps in our understanding of their combined effects. To address this, we used millions of herbarium and occurrence records to model phenological and range shifts for 2837 plant species in the United States across historical, recent, and projected climate and land cover conditions, enabling us to scale responses from species to communities, and from local to continental geographies. Our analysis reveals that communities are shifting toward earlier, longer flowering seasons in most biomes, with co‐flowering species richness increasing at the edges of the season and declining at historical peaks—trends projected to intensify under ongoing environmental trends. Although range and phenology shifts operate concurrently, they predominantly affect different aspects of the flowering season: phenological changes primarily alter seasonality—its start, end, and duration—and co‐flowering diversity at the edges of the season, while range shifts more strongly influence co‐flowering species richness during historical seasonal peaks and the identity and degree of flowering synchrony among co‐occurring species pairs. Together, these results demonstrate that shifts in phenology and species ranges act synergistically to restructure the flowering seasons across the conterminous United States, revealing wide variation in the pace and direction of change among biomes.more » « less
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Abstract Background and Aims When plant communities are exposed to herbicide ‘drift’, wherein particles containing the active ingredient travel off-target, interspecific variation in resistance or tolerance may scale up to affect community dynamics. In turn, these alterations could threaten the diversity and stability of agro-ecosystems. We investigated the effects of herbicide drift on the growth and reproduction of 25 wild plant species to make predictions about the consequences of drift exposure on plant-plant interactions and the broader ecological community. Methods We exposed potted plants from species that commonly occur in agricultural areas to a drift-level dose of the widely used herbicide dicamba or a control solution in the glasshouse. We evaluated species-level variation in resistance and tolerance for vegetative and floral traits. We assessed community-level impacts of drift by comparing species evenness and flowering networks of glasshouse synthetic communities comprised of drift-exposed and control plants. Key Results Species varied significantly in resistance and tolerance to dicamba drift: some were negatively impacted while others showed overcompensatory responses. Species also differed in the way they deployed flowers over time following drift exposure. While drift had negligeable effects on community evenness based on vegetative biomass, it caused salient differences in the structure of coflowering networks within communities. Drift reduced the degree and intensity of flowering overlap among species, altered the composition of groups of species that were more likely to coflower with each other than with others, and shifted species roles (e.g., from dominant to inferior floral producers and vice versa). Conclusions These results demonstrate that even low levels of herbicide exposure can significantly alter plant growth and reproduction, particularly flowering phenology. If field-grown plants respond similarly, then these changes would likely impact plant-plant competitive dynamics and potentially plant-pollinator interactions occurring within plant communities at the agro-ecological interface.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70070
