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Here, we show production pathways for greenhouse gas (GHG)-negative bio-based plastics from 2nd and 3rd generation feedstocks. We focus on bio-based plastics that are technically capable of replacing 80% of the global plastic market. By presenting life cycle inventories and discussing GHG-emissions hotspots, this work will inform stakeholders along the plastic supply chain of the necessary steps to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, and potentially, how to drive net-uptake. This work is of critical importance given the overwhelming mass of plastic produced annually and the resulting CO2 emissions. To conduct this assessment, we derive life cycle inventories for nine different bio-based plastics and address the impact of methodological choices, such as allocation method, on the resulting 100a global warming potential (GWP). Our findings show that resources used and processing methods implemented have significant effects on the potential for us to derive carbon-negative plastics. Furthermore, we find that environmental impact quantification methods greatly influence the perceived GWP of such processes. For example, economic and mass allocation methods resulted in an apparent increase in GWP of up to 39% and 166%, respectively, compared to no allocation for bio-based plastics made from 2nd generation crops, whereas mass allocation resulted in the lowest GWP for bio-based plastics made from 1st generation crops. In considering environmental impact hotspots, our findings show that decarbonization of thermal energy and electricity, reduced use of ammonia-based fertilizer, renewable hydrogen production, use of bio-based alternatives for petrochemicals and plasticizers, enzyme production pathways from 2nd generation crops, and more efficient biomass conversion processes to reduce feedstock inputs may be critical steps in creating GHG negative bio-based plastics in the future.
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Decarbonization Potential of Global Fired Clay Brick Production
Fired clay bricks (FCBs) are a dominant building material globally due to their low cost and simplicity of production, especially in low- and middle-income countries. With a projected rising housing demand, commensurate growth in brick demand is anticipated, the production of which could result in significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Robust models are needed to estimate brick demand and emissions to systematically address decarbonization pathways. Few sources report production values; hence, we present two novel proxy models: (i) a consumption prediction model, relying on country-specific clay extraction data, dynamic building stock modeling, and average material intensity use allowing for projections to 2050; and (ii) a GHG emissions model, using literature-based data and production technology-specific inputs. Based on these models, the current global FCB consumption is estimated as 2.18 Gt annually, resulting in approximately 500 million tCO2e (1% of current global GHG emissions). If unaddressed, this fraction could increase to 3.5–5% in 2050 considering a moderate SSP 2-4.5 climate change mitigation scenario. Consequently, we explored three potential decarbonization pathways: (i) improving energy efficiency; (ii) shifting production to best practices; and (iii) replacing half of FCB demand with hollow concrete blocks, resulting in 27%, 49%, and 51% reduction in GHG emissions, respectively.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2143981
- PAR ID:
- 10608156
- Publisher / Repository:
- ACS Publications
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Science & Technology
- Volume:
- 59
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 0013-936X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1909 to 1920
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.4c08994
