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1. Tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32018-4  

   Feng, Kairui; Ouyang, Min; Lin, Ning (December 2022, Nature Communications)

   Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) have caused extensive power outages. The impacts of TC-caused blackouts may worsen in the future as TCs and heatwaves intensify. Here we couple TC and heatwave projections and power outage and recovery process analysis to investigate how TC-blackout-heatwave compound hazard risk may vary in a changing climate, with Harris County, Texas as an example. We find that, under the high-emissions scenario RCP8.5, long-duration heatwaves following strong TCs may increase sharply. The expected percentage of Harris residents experiencing at least one longer-than-5-day TC-blackout-heatwave compound hazard in a 20-year period could increase dramatically by a factor of 23 (from 0.8% to 18.2%) over the 21 st century. We also reveal that a moderate enhancement of the power distribution network can significantly mitigate the compound hazard risk. Thus, climate adaptation actions, such as strategically undergrounding distribution network and developing distributed energy sources, are urgently needed to improve coastal power system resilience. 

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2. Assessing Future Coastal Flood Hazards From Tropical Cyclones in the Northeastern United States

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006063  

   Begmohammadi, Amirhosein; Lin, Ning; Xi, Dazhi; Blackshaw, Christine (November 2025, Earth's Future)

   Coastal flooding from tropical cyclone (TC)‐induced storm surges is among the most devastating natural hazards in the US. Accurately quantifying storm surge hazards is crucial for risk mitigation and climate adaptation. In this study, we conduct climatology‐hydrodynamic modeling to estimate TC surge hazards along the US northeast coastline under future climate scenarios. In this methodology, we generate synthetic TCs for the northeastern US to drive a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC) to simulate storm surges. Observing their significant effect on storm surge, for the first time, we bias‐correct landfall angles of synthetic TCs, in addition to bias‐correcting their frequency and intensity. Our findings show that under the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR) and TC climatology change, historical 100‐year extreme water levels (EWLs) along the US northeast coastline would occur annually at the end of the century in both SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 emissions scenarios. 500‐year EWLs are also projected to occur every 1–60 (1–20) years under SSP2‐4.5 (SSP5‐8.5). SLR is the dominant factor in the dramatic changes in the EWLs. However, while in higher latitudes () TC climatology change modestly affect EWLs ( contribution for 100‐year and for 500‐year EWL changes), in lower latitudes the impact is more significant (up to 40% contribution to 100‐year and 55% for 500‐year EWL changes). Extending previous methods, the physics‐based probabilistic framework presented here can be applied to project future coastal flood hazards under the effects of SLR and storm climatology change for any TC‐prone region. 

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3. Impact of solar geoengineering on wildfires in the 21st century in CESM2/WACCM6

   https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5467-2023  

   Tang, Wenfu; Tilmes, Simone; Lawrence, David M.; Li, Fang; He, Cenlin; Emmons, Louisa K.; Buchholz, Rebecca R.; Xia, Lili (January 2023, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics)

   Abstract. We quantify future changes in wildfire burned area and carbon emissions inthe 21st century under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenariosand two SSP5-8.5-based solar geoengineering scenarios with a target surfacetemperature defined by SSP2-4.5 – solar irradiance reduction (G6solar) andstratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (G6sulfur) – and explore themechanisms that drive solar geoengineering impacts on fires. This study isbased on fully coupled climate–chemistry simulations with simulatedoccurrence of fires (burned area and carbon emissions) using the WholeAtmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) as the atmosphericcomponent of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Globally,total wildfire burned area is projected to increase over the 21st centuryunder scenarios without geoengineering and decrease under the twogeoengineering scenarios. By the end of the century, the two geoengineeringscenarios have lower burned area and fire carbon emissions than not onlytheir base-climate scenario SSP5-8.5 but also the targeted-climate scenarioSSP2-4.5. Geoengineering reduces wildfire occurrence by decreasing surfacetemperature and wind speed and increasing relative humidity and soil water,with the exception of boreal regions where geoengineering increases theoccurrence of wildfires due to a decrease in relative humidity and soilwater compared with the present day. This leads to a global reduction in burnedarea and fire carbon emissions by the end of the century relative to theirbase-climate scenario SSP5-8.5. However, geoengineering also yieldsreductions in precipitation compared with a warming climate, which offsetssome of the fire reduction. Overall, the impacts of the different drivingfactors are larger on burned area than fire carbon emissions. In general,the stratospheric sulfate aerosol approach has a stronger fire-reducingeffect than the solar irradiance reduction approach. 

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4. Impact of changing recharge on a sole-source coastal aquifer: multi-model assessment for Virginia’s Eastern Shore.

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135003  

   Hesamfar, Farshad; Barbosa, Sergio A; Tran, Thanh-Nhan-Duc; Culver, Teresa; Band, Lawrence; Lakshmi, Venkataraman (April 2026, Journal of Hydrology)

   Coastal aquifers face compound pressures from shifting meteorological patterns and sea-level rise (SLR), posing a direct threat to groundwater resources. We estimate future climate-driven recharge by forcing SWAT with downscaled, bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections from four General Circulation Models (MIROC6, BCCCSM2- MR, CanESM5, and MRI-ESM2-0) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. These recharge rates, in addition to local SLR, are input into SEAWAT, a variable-density groundwater flow and solute-transport model. Simulations then project changes in the coastal aquifer system over the Eastern Shore of Virginia (ESVA), quantifying groundwater availability and salinity risk from 2023 to 2080. Our findings are: (1) by 2080, the driest scenario (BCC-CSM2-MR; SSP2-4.5) reduces inland surficial groundwater heads by more than one meter and decreases freshwater volume by approximately 100 million m3 (􀀀 2.5%), an amount equivalent to 4.8 yrs of the current total water demand on ESVA. (2) The wettest scenario (CanESM5; SSP2-4.5) increases groundwater heads up to 1.9 m and expands freshwater volume by +2.7%, corresponding to 17 yrs of residential water supply. (3) While the equal-weight ensemble median head change remains small (|median Δh| ≲ 5 cm), the inter-model variability in freshwater storage, measured by the interquartile range (IQR), increases from ~25 MCM in 2030 to ~46 MCM in 2060, indicating growing uncertainty. (4) Groundwater head variation peaks along the central upland ridge (>2 m) but drops below 0.25 m on barrier islands, where sea-level rise dominates. (5) High-emission scenarios show greater groundwater variability before 2060 but converge afterward, while intermediate scenarios show the opposite trend. These findings indicate the need for developing adaptive, climate-resilient groundwater management strategies to enhance water security and mitigate saltwater intrusion. 

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5. Constraining Future Projections of Freezing Level Height and Equilibrium‐Line Altitudes in the Tropical Andes Based on CMIP6

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042963  

   Turner, Shelby A; Vuille, Mathias; Rabatel, Antoine (June 2025, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)

   Abstract Over the past several decades, glacier retreat in the tropical Andes has accelerated. Given the role glacier melt plays for water supply, ecosystem integrity and glacier‐related natural hazards, improving projections of glacier changes in the region is critical. The accuracy of global climate models in this region remains an issue as the complex terrain and climate characteristics are difficult to realistically simulate. Here, we examine historical changes of freezing level height (FLH) on four tropical Andean glaciers: Antisana 15 glacier in Ecuador, Artesonraju glacier and Quelccaya ice cap in Peru, and Zongo glacier in Bolivia. The changes in FLH at each site are estimated based on ERA5 reanalysis data and then compared with historical simulations from 35 different CMIP6 models. Constraints are then placed on future projections via correction of model bias, selection of “best‐performing” models, and excluding models with an equilibrium climate sensitivity outside the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 likely range. By utilizing the significant empirical linear relationship observed between FLH and glacier equilibrium‐line altitude, we estimate the future shrinkage of the glaciers' accumulation zone under two emissions scenarios, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. By the year 2100, the Quelccaya ice cap will likely have passed a point of no return, committing to losing its entire accumulation zone, regardless of emission pathway. The same is true for Antisana 15‐alpha glacier under SSP5‐8.5 while a small accumulation zone remains under SSP2‐4.5. Thanks to their higher accumulation area, Zongo and Artesonraju glaciers are more likely to survive beyond 2100, albeit in a strongly reduced extent. 

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