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1. Hurricane Ida’s blackout-heatwave compound risk in a changing climate

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59737-8  

   Feng, Kairui; Lin, Ning; Gori, Avantika; Xi, Dazhi; Ouyang, Min; Oppenheimer, Michael (May 2025, Nature Communications)

   The emerging tropical cyclone (TC)-blackout-heatwave compound risk under climate change is not well understood. In this study, we employ projections of TCs, sea level rise, and heatwaves, in conjunction with power system resilience modeling, to evaluate historical and future TC-blackout-heatwave compound risk in Louisiana, US. We find that the return period for a compound event comparable to Hurricane Ida (2021), with approximately 35 million customer hours of simultaneous power outage and heatwave exposure in Louisiana, is around 278 years in the historical climate of 1980–2005. Under the SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario, this return period is projected to decrease to 16.2 years by 2070–2100, a ~17 times reduction. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, it decreases to 23.1 years, representing a ~12 times reduction. Heatwave intensification is the primary driver of this increased risk, reducing the return period by approximately 5 times under SSP5-8.5 and 3 times under SSP2-4.5. Increased TC activity is the second driver, reducing the return period by 40% and 34% under the respective scenarios. These findings enhance our understanding of compound climate hazards and inform climate adaptation strategies. 

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2. Sensitivity of tropical cyclone risk across the US to changes in storm climatology and socioeconomic growth

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/add60d  

   Gori, Avantika; Lin, Ning; Chavas, Daniel; Oppenheimer, Michael; Xian, Siyuan (May 2025, Environmental Research Letters)

   Tropical cyclone (TC) hazards coupled with dense urban development along the coastline have resulted in trillions in US damages over the past several decades, with an increasing trend in losses in recent years. So far, this trend has been driven by increasing coastal development. However, as the climate continues to warm, changing TC climatology may also cause large changes in coastal damages in the future. Approaches to quantifying regional TC risk typically focus on total storm damage. However, it is crucial to understand the spatial footprint of TC damage and ultimately the spatial distribution of TC risk. Here, we quantify the magnitude and spatial pattern of TC risk (in expected annual damage (EAD)) across the US from wind, storm surge, and rainfall using synthetic TCs, physics-based hazard models, and a county-level statistical damage model trained on historical TC data. We then combine end-of-century TC hazard simulations with US population growth and wealth increase scenarios (under the SSP2 4.5 emission scenario) to investigate the sensitivity of changes in TC risk across the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts. We find that not directly accounting for the effects of rainfall and storm surge results in much lower risk estimates and smaller future increases in risk. TC climatology change and socioeconomic change drive similar magnitude increases in total EAD across the US (roughly 160%), and that their combined effect (633% increase) is much higher. 

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3. Global Predictability of Marine Heatwave Induced Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004935  

   Radfar, Soheil; Foroumandi, Ehsan; Moftakhari, Hamed; Moradkhani, Hamid; Foltz, Gregory R; Sen_Gupta, Alex (December 2024, Earth's Future)

   Abstract Prediction of the rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) is crucial for improving disaster preparedness against storm hazards. These events can cause extensive damage to coastal areas if occurring close to landfall. Available models struggle to provide accurate RI estimates due to the complexity of underlying physical mechanisms. This study provides new insights into the prediction of a subset of rapidly intensifying TCs influenced by prolonged ocean warming events known as marine heatwaves (MHWs). MHWs could provide sufficient energy to supercharge TCs. Preconditioning by MHW led to RI of recent destructive TCs, Otis (2023), Doksuri (2023), and Ian (2022), with economic losses exceeding $150 billion. Here, we analyze the TC best track and sea surface temperature data from 1981 to 2023 to identify hotspot regions for compound events, where MHWs and RI of tropical cyclones occur concurrently or in succession. Building upon this, we propose an ensemble machine learning model for RI forecasting based on storm and MHW characteristics. This approach is particularly valuable as RI forecast errors are typically largest in favorable environments, such as those created by MHWs. Our study offers insight into predicting MHW TCs, which have been shown to be stronger TCs with potentially higher destructive power. Here, we show that using MHW predictors instead of the conventional method of using sea surface temperature reduces the false alarm rate by 30%. Overall, our findings contribute to coastal hazard risk awareness amidst unprecedented climate warming causing more frequent MHWs. 

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4. Investigating the interaction of tropical cyclone-heatwave compound hazards in urban environments

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102667  

   Blackshaw, Christine Y; Lin, Ning; Begmohammadi, Amirhosein; Bou-Zeid, Elie (November 2025, Urban Climate)

   While tropical cyclone (TC) and heatwave (HW) compound hazard extremes are rare in the historical record, they have been recently emerging and are expected to become more frequent under future climate projections. Joint TC-HW hazards can exacerbate heat stress felt by residents, particularly in densely populated urban communities or areas suffering from storm-related power outages. The Princeton Urban Canopy Model (PUCM) has been used to evaluate heatwave conditions in urban environments, but has yet to be used to model joint TC-HW conditions. In this study, we model joint TC-HW hazards by adjusting the surface energy and water budgets of the PUCM to account for TC flood and extreme wind hazards. We investigate joint hazard interactions during Hurricane Laura (2020) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to simulate both Laura's wind field to drive subsequent hydrodynamic modeling of inundation and post-storm atmospheric conditions. The WRF and hydrodynamic modeling results are then used to drive the PUCM to assess the interaction of joint flooding, wind, and heat and their impacts on the city of Lake Charles in Louisiana. Results show that accounting for TC inundation up to a week after landfall can cause over 3°C reductions in daytime heat stress and 1.5°C increases in nighttime heat stress compared to simulations that ignore the presence of flooding. Accounting for defoliation from extreme TC winds can increase maximum nighttime heat stress by more than 4°C. 

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5. Hurricane Hilary (2023) and Rare Tropical Cyclones in the Southwest United States: Impacts on Temperature and Precipitation

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042739  

   Miles, Euan; Xie, Shang‐Ping (February 2025, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)

   Abstract Hurricane Hilary brought extensive, record‐breaking precipitation to the Southwest United States in August 2023. Although tropical cyclones (TCs) are uncommon in this region, they can cause substantial damage, primarily through flooding. However, heat extremes associated with these TCs are understudied and could have significant impacts in populated coastal areas. This study examines the conditions that promoted the occurrence of 42 north‐reaching, northeastern Pacific TCs and quantifies how local temperatures responded to these storms. Using composite analysis, we find that there is significant warming along the coastal region of Southern California preceding a TC, particularly for storms that remain offshore. Three main mechanisms contribute to this warming pattern—adiabatic compression associated with downslope winds, warm air advection by the TC itself, and suppression of coastal upwelling. These compound heatwave‐TC events are an overlooked impact of TCs that will likely become more important as the climate warms. 

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