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Abstract The temporal stability of plant productivity affects species' access to resources, exposure to stressors and strength of interactions with other species in the community, including support to the food web. The magnitude of temporal stability depends on how a species allocates resources among tissues and across phenological stages, such as vegetative growth versus reproduction. Understanding how plant phenological traits correlate with the long‐term stability of plant biomass is particularly important in highly variable ecosystems, such as drylands.We evaluated whether phenological traits predict the temporal stability of plant species productivity by correlating 18 years of monthly phenology observations with biannual estimates of above‐ground plant biomass for 98 plant species from semi‐arid drylands. We then paired these phenological traits with potential climate drivers to identify abiotic contexts that favour specific phenological strategies among plant species.Phenological traits predicted the stability of plant species above‐ground biomass. Plant species with longer vegetative phenophases not only had more stable biomass production over time but also failed to fruit in a greater proportion of years, indicating a growth–reproduction trade‐off. Earlier leaf‐out dates, longer fruiting duration and longer time lags between leaf and fruit production also predicted greater temporal stability.Species with stability‐promoting traits began greening in drier conditions than their unstable counterparts and experienced unexpectedly greater exposure to climate stress, indicated by the wider range of temperatures and precipitation experienced during biologically active periods.Our results suggest that bet‐hedging strategies that spread resource acquisition and reproduction over long time periods help to stabilize plant species productivity in variable environments, such as drylands. Read the freePlain Language Summaryfor this article on the Journal blog.
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This content will become publicly available on June 27, 2026
Specimen‐tailored ‘lived’ climate reveals precipitation onset and amount best predict specimen phenology, but only weakly predict estimated reproduction across a clade
Summary Herbarium specimens are widely distributed in space and time, thereby capturing diverse conditions. We reconstructed specimen ‘lived’ climate from knowledge of germination cues and collection dates for 14 annual species in theStreptanthus(s.l.) clade (Brassicaceae) to ask: which climate attributes best explain specimen phenological stage and estimated reproduction? Are climate effects on phenology and reproduction evolutionarily conserved?We used climate data geolocated to collection sites to reconstruct the climate experienced by specimens and to ask which aspects of climate best explain specimen reproductive traits. We mapped slopes of climate relationships with these traits on the phylogeny to explore evolutionary constraint and models of evolution.Precipitation amount and onset, more than temperature, best predicted specimen phenology, but weakly predicted reproduction. Earlier rainfall was associated with more phenological advancement, a relationship that showed phylogenetic signal. Few climate predictors explained specimen reproduction. Phenological compensation, interactions with other species, or challenges in estimating total reproduction from specimens may reduce the signal between climate and reproduction.We highlight the value of specimen‐tailored growing season estimates for reconstructing climate, incorporating evolutionary relationships in assessing responses to climate. We propose supplemental collection protocols to increase the utility of specimens for understanding climate impacts.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1831913
- PAR ID:
- 10613359
- Publisher / Repository:
- New Phytologist
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- New Phytologist
- ISSN:
- 0028-646X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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