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Abstract Susceptibility to infectious diseases such as COVID-19 depends on how those diseases spread. Many studies have examined the decrease in COVID-19 spread due to reduction in travel. However, less is known about how much functional geographic regions, which capture natural movements and social interactions, limit the spread of COVID-19. To determine boundaries between functional regions, we apply community-detection algorithms to large networks of mobility and social-media connections to construct geographic regions that reflect natural human movement and relationships at the county level in the coterminous United States. We measure COVID-19 case counts, case rates, and case-rate variations across adjacent counties and examine how often COVID-19 crosses the boundaries of these functional regions. We find that regions that we construct using GPS-trace networks and especially commute networks have the lowest COVID-19 case rates along the boundaries, so these regions may reflect natural partitions in COVID-19 transmission. Conversely, regions that we construct from geolocated Facebook friendships and Twitter connections yield less effective partitions. Our analysis reveals that regions that are derived from movement flows are more appropriate geographic units than states for making policy decisions about opening areas for activity, assessing vulnerability of populations, and allocating resources. Our insights are also relevant for policy decisions and public messaging in future emergency situations.
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Beyond Data Points: Regionalizing Crowdsourced Latency Measurements
Despite significant investments in access network infrastructure, universal access to high-quality Internet connectivity remains a challenge. Policymakers often rely on large-scale, crowdsourced measurement datasets to assess the distribution of access network performance across geographic areas. These decisions typically rest on the assumption that Internet performance is uniformly distributed within predefined social boundaries, such as zip codes, census tracts, or neighborhood units. However, this assumption may not be valid for two reasons: (1) crowdsourced measurements often exhibit non-uniform sampling densities within geographic areas; and (2) predefined social boundaries may not align with the actual boundaries of Internet infrastructure. In this paper, we present a spatial analysis on crowdsourced datasets for constructing stable boundaries for sampling Internet performance. We hypothesize that greater stability in sampling boundaries will reflect the true nature of Internet performance disparities than misleading patterns observed as a result of data sampling variations. We apply and evaluate a series of statistical techniques to: (1) aggregate Internet performance over geographic regions; (2) overlay interpolated maps with various sampling unit choices; and (3) spatially cluster boundary units to identify contiguous areas with similar performance characteristics. We assess the effectiveness of the techniques we apply by comparing the similarity of the resulting boundaries for monthly samples drawn from the dataset. Our evaluation shows that the combination of techniques we apply achieves higher similarity compared to directly calculating central measures of network metrics over census tracts or neighborhood boundaries. These findings underscore the important role of spatial modeling in accurately assessing and optimizing the distribution of Internet performance, which can better inform policy, network operations, and long-term planning decisions.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2324515
- PAR ID:
- 10613794
- Publisher / Repository:
- ACM Digital Library
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the ACM on Measurement and Analysis of Computing Systems
- Volume:
- 8
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2476-1249
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 24
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1145/3700416
