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Deep learning models have been studied to forecast human events using vast volumes of data, yet they still cannot be trusted in certain applications such as healthcare and disaster assistance due to the lack of interpretability. Providing explanations for event predictions not only helps practitioners understand the underlying mechanism of prediction behavior but also enhances the robustness of event analysis. Improving the transparency of event prediction models is challenging given the following factors: (i) multilevel features exist in event data which creates a challenge to cross-utilize different levels of data; (ii) features across different levels and time steps are heterogeneous and dependent; and (iii) static model-level interpretations cannot be easily adapted to event forecasting given the dynamic and temporal characteristics of the data. Recent interpretation methods have proven their capabilities in tasks that deal with graph-structured or relational data. In this paper, we present a Contextualized Multilevel Feature learning framework, CMF, for interpretable temporal event prediction. It consists of a predictor for forecasting events of interest and an explanation module for interpreting model predictions. We design a new context-based feature fusion method to integrate multiple levels of heterogeneous features. We also introduce a temporal explanation module to determine sequences of text and subgraphs that have crucial roles in a prediction. We conduct extensive experiments on several real-world datasets of political and epidemic events. We demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive compared with the state-of-the-art models while possessing favorable interpretation capabilities.
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Adaptive Joint Spatio-Temporal Graph Learning Network for Traffic Data Forecasting
Traffic data forecasting has become an integral part of the intelligent traffic system. Great efforts are spent developing tools and techniques to estimate traffic flow patterns. Many existing approaches lack the ability to model the complex and dynamic spatio-temporal relations in the traffic data, which are crucial in capturing the traffic dynamic. In this work, we propose AJSTGL, a novel adaptive joint spatio-temporal graph learning network for traffic data forecasting. The proposed model utilizes static and adaptive graph learning modules to capture the static and dynamic spatial traffic patterns and optimize the graph learning process. A sequence-to-sequence fusion model is proposed to learn the temporal correlation and combine the output of multiple parallelized encoders. We also develop a spatio-temporal graph transformer module to complement the sequence-to-sequence fusion module by dynamically capturing the time-evolving node relations in long-term intervals. Experiments on three large-scale traffic flow datasets demonstrate that our model could outperform other state-of-the-art baseline methods.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2301552
- PAR ID:
- 10616590
- Publisher / Repository:
- ACM
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- ACM Transactions on Spatial Algorithms and Systems
- Volume:
- 10
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2374-0353
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 20
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1145/3634913
