An official website of the United States government
The brevity of the instrumental record limits our knowledge of tropical cyclone activity on multidecadal to longer timescales and hampers our ability to diagnose climatic controls. Sedimentary archives containing event beds provide essential data on tropical cyclone activity over centuries and millennia. This review highlights the advantages and limitations of this approach and how these reconstructions have illuminated patterns of tropical cyclone activity and potential climate drivers over the last millennium. Key elements to developing high-quality reconstructions include confident attribution of event beds to tropical cyclones, assessing the potential role of other mechanisms, and evaluating the potential influence of geomorphic changes, sea-level variations, and sediment supply on a settings’ susceptibility to event bed deposition. Millennium-long histories of severe tropical cyclone occurrence are now available from many locations in the western North Atlantic and western North Pacific, revealing clear regional shifts in activity likely related to intervals of large-scale ocean-atmosphere reorganization.▪Prior to significant human influence in Earth's climate, natural climate variability dramatically altered patterns of tropical cyclone activity.▪For some regions (e.g., The Bahamas and the Marshall Islands), earlier intervals of tropical cyclone activity exceeded what humans have experienced during the recent period of instrumental measurements (∼1850 CE–present).▪Risk assessments based on the short instrumental record likely underestimate the threat posed by tropical cyclones in many regions.▪Changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation associated with the Little Ice Age (∼1400–1800 CE) resulted in significant regional changes in tropical cyclone activity.▪Given the past sensitivity of tropical cyclone activity to climate change, we should anticipate regional shifts in tropical cyclone activity in response to ongoing anthropogenic warming of the planet.
more »
« less
This content will become publicly available on May 30, 2026
A Holistic View of Climate Sensitivity
The notion of climate sensitivity has become synonymous with equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), or the equilibrium response of the Earth system to a doubling of CO2. But there is a hierarchy of measures of climate sensitivity, which can be arranged in order of increasing complexity and societal relevance and which mirror the historical development of climate modeling. Elements of this hierarchy include the well-known ECS and transient climate response and the lesser-known transient climate response to cumulative emissions and zero emissions commitment. This article describes this hierarchy of climate sensitivities and associated modeling approaches. Key concepts reviewed along the way include climate forcing and feedback, ocean heat uptake, and the airborne fraction of cumulative emissions. We employ simplified theoretical models throughout to encapsulate well-understood aspects of these quantities and to highlight gaps in our understanding and areas for future progress.▪There is a hierarchy of measures of climate sensitivity, which exhibit a range of complexity and societal relevance.▪Equilibrium climate sensitivity is only one of these measures, and our understanding of it may have reached a plateau.▪The more complex measures introduce new quantities, such as ocean heat uptake coefficient and airborne fraction, which deserve increased attention.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2332379
- PAR ID:
- 10626709
- Publisher / Repository:
- Annual Reviews
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
- Volume:
- 53
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0084-6597
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 367 to 396
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
A long-term cooling trend through the Ordovician Period, from 487 to 443 Ma, is recorded by oxygen isotope data. Tropical ocean basins in the Early Ordovician were hot, which led to low oxygen concentrations in the surface ocean due to the temperature dependence of oxygen solubility. Elevated temperatures also increased metabolic demands such that hot shallow water environments had limited animal diversity as recorded by microbially dominated carbonates. As the oceans cooled through the Ordovician, animal biodiversity increased, leading to the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event. The protracted nature of the cooling suggests that it was the product of progressive changes in tectonic boundary conditions. Low-latitude arc-continent collisions through this period may have increased global weatherability and decreased atmospheric CO2levels. Additionally, decreasing continental arc magmatism could have lowered CO2outgassing fluxes. The Ordovician long-term cooling trend culminated with the development of a large south polar ice sheet on Gondwana. The timescale of major ice growth and decay over the final 2 Myr of the Ordovician is consistent with Pleistocene-like glacial cycles driven by orbital forcing. The short duration of large-scale glaciation indicates a high sensitivity of ice volume to temperature with a strongly nonlinear response, providing a valuable analog for Neogene and future climate change.▪Oxygen isotope data record progressive and protracted cooling through the Ordovician leading up to the onset of Hirnantian glaciation.▪The gradual cooling trend is mirrored by an Ordovician radiation in biological diversity, consistent with temperature-dependent oxygen solubility and metabolism as a primary control.▪Long-term cooling occurred in concert with low-latitude arc-continent collisions and an increase in global weatherability. Although CO2outgassing may have also decreased with an Ordovician decrease in continental arc length, in the modern, CO2outgassing is variable along both continental and island arcs, leaving the relationship between continental arc length and climate uncertain.▪Evidence for significant ice growth is limited to less than 2 Myr of the Hirnantian Stage, suggesting a high sensitivity of ice growth topCO2and temperature.▪Independent estimates for ice volume, area, and sea level change during the Hirnantian glacial maximum are internally consistent and comparable to those of the Last Glacial Maximum.more » « less
-
Cloud phase improvements in a state‐of‐the‐art climate model produce a large 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, the surface warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2) via extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. Here we show that the same model improvements produce only a small surface warming increase in a realistic 21st century emissions scenario. The small 21st century warming increase is attributed to extratropical ocean heat uptake. Southern Ocean mean‐state circulation takes up heat while a slowdown in North Atlantic circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. Persistent heat uptake by extratropical oceans implies that extratropical cloud biases may not be as important to 21st century warming as biases in other regions. Observational constraints on cloud phase and shortwave radiation that produce a large ECS increase do not imply large changes in 21st century warming.more » « less
-
The extensive chondrichthyan fossil record spans 400+ million years and has a global distribution. Paleontological studies provide a foundation of description and taxonomy to support deeper forays into ecology and evolution considering geographic, morphologic, and functional changes through time with nonanalog species and climate states. Although chondrichthyan teeth are most studied, analyses of dermal denticle metrics and soft tissue imprints are increasing. Recent methodological advances in morphology and geochemistry are elucidating fine-scale details, whereas large datasets and ecological modeling are broadening taxonomic, temporal, and geographic perspectives. The combination of ecological metrics and modeling with environmental reconstruction and climate simulations is opening new horizons to explore form and function, demographic dynamics, and food web structure in ancient marine ecosystems. Ultimately, the traits and taxa that endured or perished during the many catastrophic upheaval events in Earth's history contribute to conservation paleobiology, which is a much-needed perspective for extant chondrichthyans.▪The longevity and abundance of the chondrichthyan fossil record elucidates facets of ecological, evolutionary, and environmental histories.▪Though lacking postcranial, mineralized skeletons, dental enameloid and dermal denticles exquisitely preserve morphology and geochemistry.▪Technical advances in imaging, geochemistry, and modeling clarify the linkages between form and function with respect to physiology, diet, and environment.▪Conservation efforts can benefit from the temporal and spatial perspective of chondrichthyan persistence through past global change events.more » « less
-
Geomagnetic methods allow us to explore the behavior of Earth's geodynamo, constrain Earth's composition and structure, and locate critical minerals and other resources essential for modern technologies and the energy transition. The magnetic properties of rocks and sediments are assumed to be stable and largely attributable to inorganic processes. This conventional view overlooks mounting evidence of microorganisms as key players in rock transformations and geological processes. Iron-bearing minerals are ubiquitous in most environments and are commonly used by microorganisms as electron donors and acceptors. Microorganisms modulate rock magnetic properties by creating, altering, and dissolving Fe-bearing minerals, potentially modifying the original magnetization, complicating interpretations of the magnetic record. This review provides an overview of biogenic pathways that modulate magnetic minerals and discusses common, yet underutilized, magnetic methods for capturing such behavior. Appreciating the influence of microbial activities on magnetic properties will improve our interpretations of Earth's geologic past and its elemental cycling.▪Microorganisms modulate rock magnetic properties, challenging traditional views of a geologically stable magnetic record formed solely by inorganic processes.▪Microbial iron cycling modulates magnetic properties modifying magnetic information recorded in rocks.▪Microbial processes may have impacted Earth's magnetic history more deeply than previously understood.▪Recognizing microbial contributions is critical for accurate interpretation of paleomagnetic and environmental magnetic records and could aid in the search for life on other planetary bodies.more » « less
