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1. Trading under the proof‐of‐stake protocol – A continuous‐time control approach

   https://doi.org/10.1111/mafi.12403  

   Tang, Wenpin; Yao, David D. (May 2023, Mathematical Finance)

   Abstract We develop a continuous‐time control approach to optimal trading in a Proof‐of‐Stake (PoS) blockchain, formulated as a consumption‐investment problem that aims to strike the optimal balance between a participant's (or agent's) utility from holding/trading stakes and utility from consumption. We present solutions via dynamic programming and the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equations. When the utility functions are linear or convex, we derive close‐form solutions and show that the bang‐bang strategy is optimal (i.e., always buy or sell at full capacity). Furthermore, we bring out the explicit connection between the rate of return in trading/holding stakes and the participant's risk‐adjusted valuation of the stakes. In particular, we show when a participant is risk‐neutral or risk‐seeking, corresponding to the risk‐adjusted valuation being a martingale or a sub‐martingale, the optimal strategy must be to either buy all the time, sell all the time, or first buy then sell, and with both buying and selling executed at full capacity. We also propose a risk‐control version of the consumption‐investment problem; and for a special case, the “stake‐parity” problem, we show a mean‐reverting strategy is optimal. 

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2. A Neural Network Approach to High-Dimensional Optimal Switching Problems with Jumps in Energy Markets

   https://doi.org/10.1137/22M1527246  

   Bayraktar, Erhan; Cohen, Asaf; Nellis, April (December 2023, SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics)

   Soner, Mete (Ed.)

   We develop a backward-in-time machine learning algorithm that uses a sequence of neural networks to solve optimal switching problems in energy production, where electricity and fossil fuel prices are subject to stochastic jumps. We then apply this algorithm to a variety of energy scheduling problems, including novel high-dimensional energy production problems. Our experimental results demonstrate that the algorithm performs with accuracy and experiences linear to sub-linear slowdowns as dimension increases, demonstrating the value of the algorithm for solving high-dimensional switching problem. Keywords. Deep neural networks, forward-backward systems of stochastic differential equations, optimal switching, Monte Carlo algorithm, optimal investment in power generation, planning problems 

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3. Equilibrium strategies for time-inconsistent stochastic switching systems

   https://doi.org/10.1051/cocv/2018051  

   Mei, Hongwei; Yong, Jiongmin (January 2019, ESAIM: Control, Optimisation and Calculus of Variations)

   An optimal control problem is considered for a stochastic differential equation containing a state-dependent regime switching, with a recursive cost functional. Due to the non-exponential discounting in the cost functional, the problem is time-inconsistent in general. Therefore, instead of finding a global optimal control (which is not possible), we look for a time-consistent (approximately) locally optimal equilibrium strategy. Such a strategy can be represented through the solution to a system of partial differential equations, called an equilibrium Hamilton–Jacob–Bellman (HJB) equation which is constructed via a sequence of multi-person differential games. A verification theorem is proved and, under proper conditions, the well-posedness of the equilibrium HJB equation is established as well. 

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4. Time-inconsistent stochastic optimal control problems and backward stochastic volterra integral equations

   https://doi.org/10.1051/cocv/2021027  

   Wang, Hanxiao; Yong, Jiongmin (January 2021, ESAIM: Control, Optimisation and Calculus of Variations)

   Buttazzo, G.; Casas, E.; de Teresa, L.; Glowinski, R.; Leugering, G.; Trélat, E.; Zhang, X. (Ed.)

   An optimal control problem is considered for a stochastic differential equation with the cost functional determined by a backward stochastic Volterra integral equation (BSVIE, for short). This kind of cost functional can cover the general discounting (including exponential and non-exponential) situations with a recursive feature. It is known that such a problem is time-inconsistent in general. Therefore, instead of finding a global optimal control, we look for a time-consistent locally near optimal equilibrium strategy. With the idea of multi-person differential games, a family of approximate equilibrium strategies is constructed associated with partitions of the time intervals. By sending the mesh size of the time interval partition to zero, an equilibrium Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB, for short) equation is derived, through which the equilibrium value function and an equilibrium strategy are obtained. Under certain conditions, a verification theorem is proved and the well-posedness of the equilibrium HJB is established. As a sort of Feynman–Kac formula for the equilibrium HJB equation, a new class of BSVIEs (containing the diagonal value Z ( r , r ) of Z (⋅ , ⋅)) is naturally introduced and the well-posedness of such kind of equations is briefly presented. 

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5. A Neural Network Approach for Stochastic Optimal Control

   Li, Xingjian; Verma, Deepanshu; Ruthotto, Lars (June 2024, SIAM journal on scientific computing)

   We present a neural network approach for approximating the value function of high- dimensional stochastic control problems. Our training process simultaneously updates our value function estimate and identifies the part of the state space likely to be visited by optimal trajectories. Our approach leverages insights from optimal control theory and the fundamental relation between semi-linear parabolic partial differential equations and forward-backward stochastic differential equations. To focus the sampling on relevant states during neural network training, we use the stochastic Pontryagin maximum principle (PMP) to obtain the optimal controls for the current value function estimate. By design, our approach coincides with the method of characteristics for the non-viscous Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation arising in deterministic control problems. Our training loss consists of a weighted sum of the objective functional of the control problem and penalty terms that enforce the HJB equations along the sampled trajectories. Importantly, training is unsupervised in that it does not require solutions of the control problem. Our numerical experiments highlight our scheme’s ability to identify the relevant parts of the state space and produce meaningful value estimates. Using a two-dimensional model problem, we demonstrate the importance of the stochastic PMP to inform the sampling and compare to a finite element approach. With a nonlinear control affine quadcopter example, we illustrate that our approach can handle complicated dynamics. For a 100-dimensional benchmark problem, we demonstrate that our approach improves accuracy and time-to-solution and, via a modification, we show the wider applicability of our scheme. 

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