An official website of the United States government
Abstract We present a novel approach for the search of dark matter in the DarkSide-50 experiment, relying on Bayesian Networks. This method incorporates the detector response model into the likelihood function, explicitly maintaining the connection with the quantity of interest. No assumptions about the linearity of the problem or the shape of the probability distribution functions are required, and there is no need to morph signal and background spectra as a function of nuisance parameters. By expressing the problem in terms of Bayesian Networks, we have developed an inference algorithm based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo to calculate the posterior probability. A clever description of the detector response model in terms of parametric matrices allows us to study the impact of systematic variations of any parameter on the final results. Our approach not only provides the desired information on the parameter of interest, but also potential constraints on the response model. Our results are consistent with recent published analyses and further refine the parameters of the detector response model.
more »
« less
Bayesian inference: more than Bayes’s theorem
Bayesian inference gets its name fromBayes’s theorem, expressing posterior probabilities for hypotheses about a data generating process as the (normalized) product of prior probabilities and a likelihood function. But Bayesian inference uses all of probability theory, not just Bayes’s theorem. Many hypotheses of scientific interest arecomposite hypotheses, with the strength of evidence for the hypothesis dependent on knowledge about auxiliary factors, such as the values of nuisance parameters (e.g., uncertain background rates or calibration factors). Many important capabilities of Bayesian methods arise from use of the law of total probability, which instructs analysts to compute probabilities for composite hypotheses bymarginalizationover auxiliary factors. This tutorial targets relative newcomers to Bayesian inference, aiming to complement tutorials that focus on Bayes’s theorem and how priors modulate likelihoods. The emphasis here is on marginalization over parameter spaces—both how it is the foundation for important capabilities, and how it may motivate caution when parameter spaces are large. Topics covered include the difference between likelihood and probability, understanding the impact of priors beyond merely shifting the maximum likelihood estimate, and the role of marginalization in accounting for uncertainty in nuisance parameters, systematic error, and model misspecification.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10629736
- Publisher / Repository:
- Frontiers
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences
- Volume:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 2296-987X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1326926
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- astrostatistics bayesian methods Poisson distribution nuisance parameters systematic error maximum likelihood marginalization
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Marginalization of latent variables or nuisance parameters is a fundamental aspect of Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification. In this work, we focus on scalable marginalization of latent variables in modeling correlated data, such as spatio-temporal or functional observations. We first introduce Gaussian processes (GPs) for modeling correlated data and highlight the computational challenge, where the computational complexity increases cubically fast along with the number of observations. We then review the connection between the state space model and GPs with Matérn covariance for temporal inputs. The Kalman filter and Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother were introduced as a scalable marginalization technique for computing the likelihood and making predictions of GPs without approximation. We introduce recent efforts on extending the scalable marginalization idea to the linear model of coregionalization for multivariate correlated output and spatio-temporal observations. In the final part of this work, we introduce a novel marginalization technique to estimate interaction kernels and forecast particle trajectories. The computational progress lies in the sparse representation of the inverse covariance matrix of the latent variables, then applying conjugate gradient for improving predictive accuracy with large data sets. The computational advances achieved in this work outline a wide range of applications in molecular dynamic simulation, cellular migration, and agent-based models.more » « less
-
We introduce marginalization models (MAMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast approximation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of arbitrary marginal inference models, such as any-order autoregressive models. MAMs also address the scalability bottleneck encountered in training any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the context of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized log-probability function such as energy or reward function). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including images, text, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MAMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MAMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the scale of previous methods.more » « less
-
zhu, Ji (Ed.)Dynamic treatment regimes or policies are a sequence of decision functions over multiple stages that are tailored to individual features. One important class of treatment policies in practice, namely multi-stage stationary treatment policies, prescribes treatment assignment probabilities using the same decision function across stages, where the decision is based on the same set of features consisting of time-evolving variables (e.g., routinely collected disease biomarkers). Although there has been extensive literature on constructing valid inference for the value function associated with dynamic treatment policies, little work has focused on the policies themselves, especially in the presence of high-dimensional feature variables. We aim to fill the gap in this work. Specifically, we first obtain the multi-stage stationary treatment policy by minimizing the negative augmented inverse probability weighted estimator of the value function to increase asymptotic efficiency. A penalty is applied on the policy parameters to select important feature variables. We then construct one-step improvements of the policy parameter estimators for valid inference. Theoretically, we show that the improved estimators are asymptotically normal, even if nuisance parameters are estimated at a slow convergence rate and the dimension of the feature variables increases with the sample size. Our numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed method estimates a sparse policy with a near-optimal value function and conducts valid inference for the policy parameters.more » « less
-
We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2024.1326926
