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Abstract This paper extends the application of quantile-based Bayesian inference to probability distributions defined in terms of quantiles of observable quantities. Quantile-parameterized distributions are characterized by high shape flexibility and parameter interpretability, making them useful for eliciting information about observables. To encode uncertainty in the quantiles elicited from experts, we propose a Bayesian model based on the metalog distribution and a variant of the Dirichlet prior. We discuss the resulting hybrid expert elicitation protocol, which aims to characterize uncertainty in parameters by asking questions about observable quantities. We also compare and contrast this approach with parametric and predictive elicitation methods.
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Search for low mass dark matter in DarkSide-50: the bayesian network approach
Abstract We present a novel approach for the search of dark matter in the DarkSide-50 experiment, relying on Bayesian Networks. This method incorporates the detector response model into the likelihood function, explicitly maintaining the connection with the quantity of interest. No assumptions about the linearity of the problem or the shape of the probability distribution functions are required, and there is no need to morph signal and background spectra as a function of nuisance parameters. By expressing the problem in terms of Bayesian Networks, we have developed an inference algorithm based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo to calculate the posterior probability. A clever description of the detector response model in terms of parametric matrices allows us to study the impact of systematic variations of any parameter on the final results. Our approach not only provides the desired information on the parameter of interest, but also potential constraints on the response model. Our results are consistent with recent published analyses and further refine the parameters of the detector response model.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1935947 2131857 1812540 1812453 1812482 1812492 2310038 2310046 2310048 2310047 2310041 2310049 2209368 2017506 1914410 1812472 1812547
- PAR ID:
- 10408719
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer Science + Business Media
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The European Physical Journal C
- Volume:
- 83
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1434-6052
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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