An advanced LIGO and Virgo’s third observing run brought another binary neutron star merger (BNS) and the first neutron-star black hole mergers. While no confirmed kilonovae were identified in conjunction with any of these events, continued improvements of analyses surrounding GW170817 allow us to project constraints on the Hubble Constant (H0), the Galactic enrichment fromr-process nucleosynthesis, and ultra-dense matter possible from forthcoming events. Here, we describe the expected constraints based on the latest expected event rates from the international gravitational-wave network and analyses of GW170817. We show the expected detection rate of gravitational waves and their counterparts, as well as how sensitive potential constraints are to the observed numbers of counterparts. We intend this analysis as support for the community when creating scientifically driven electromagnetic follow-up proposals. During the next observing run O4, we predict an annual detection rate of electromagnetic counterparts from BNS of ( ) for the Zwicky Transient Facility (Rubin Observatory).
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This content will become publicly available on February 1, 2026
The Fastest Path to Discovering the Second Electromagnetic Counterpart to a Gravitational Wave Event
Abstract The discovery of a second electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational wave event represents a critical goal in the field of multi-messenger astronomy. In order to determine the optimal strategy for achieving this goal, we perform comprehensive simulations comparing two potential paths forward: continuing the current LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observing run, O4, versus temporarily shutting down the detectors for upgrades before beginning the next observing run, O5. Our simulations incorporate current O4 instrument sensitivities and duty cycles, as well as projected configurations for O5, while accounting for variables such as binary neutron star merger rates, system properties, viewing angles, dust extinction, and kilonova (KN) observables. Our results indicate that a KN discovery would occur days (middle 50% interval) sooner in O5 compared to O4, suggesting that extending O4 would lead to faster discovery if the shutdown period between runs is >4 months. Moreover, for 88% of our simulations, continuing O4 results in earlier KN discovery when compared to the expected two-year shutdown between O4 and O5. Given these findings and the critical importance of avoiding a >10 yr gap between first and second electromagnetic counterpart discoveries, we suggest LVK consider extending O4 operations for as long as feasible prior to shutting down for critical upgrades.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2307710
- PAR ID:
- 10630391
- Publisher / Repository:
- Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific
- Volume:
- 137
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0004-6280
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 024101
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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