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Abstract This study investigates whether the thermodynamics of supercell rear-flank outflow can be inferred from the propagation speed and vertical structure of the rear-flank gust front. To quantify the relationship between outflow thermodynamic deficit and gust front structure, CM1 is applied as a two-dimensional cold pool model to assess the vertical slope of cold pools of varying strength in different configurations of ambient shear. The model was run with both free-slip and semislip lower boundary conditions and the results were compared to observations of severe thunderstorm outflow captured by the Texas Tech University Ka-band mobile radars. Simulated cold pools in the free-slip model achieve the propagation speeds predicted by cold pool theory, while cold pool speeds in the semislip model propagate slower. Density current theory is applied to the observed cold pools and predicts the cold pool speed to within about 2 m s−1. Both the free-slip and semislip model results reveal that, in the same sheared flow, the edge of a strong cold pool is less inclined than that of a weaker cold pool. Also, a cold pool in weak ambient shear has a steeper slope than the same cold pool in stronger ambient shear. Nonlinear regressions performed on data from both models capture the proper dependence of slope on buoyancy and shear, but the free-slip model does not predict observed slopes within acceptable error, and the semislip model overpredicts the cold pool slope for all observed cases, but with uncertainty due to shear estimation.
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This content will become publicly available on August 1, 2026
Do Cold Pools Propagate according to Theory?
Abstract This study evaluates a popular density current propagation speed equation using a large, novel set of radiosonde and dropsonde observations. Data from pairs of sondes launched inside and outside of cold pools along with the theoretical density current propagation speed equation are used to calculate sonde-based propagation speeds. Radar-/satellite-based propagation speeds, assumed to be the truth, are calculated by manually tracking the propagation of cold pools and correcting for advection due to the background wind. Several results arise from the comparisons of the theoretical sonde-based speeds with the radar-/satellite-based speeds. First, sonde-based and radar-based propagation speeds are strongly correlated for U.S. High Plains cold pools, suggesting the density current propagation speed equation is appropriate for use in midlatitude continental environments. Second, cold pool Froude numbers found in this study are in agreement with previous studies. Third, sonde-based propagation speeds are insensitive to how cold pool depth is defined since the preponderance of negative buoyancy is near the surface in cold pools. Fourth, assuming an infinite channel depth and assuming an incompressible atmosphere when deriving the density current propagation speed equation can increase sonde-based propagation speeds by up to 20% and 11%, respectively. Finally, sonde-based propagation speeds can vary by ∼300% based on where and when the sondes were launched, suggesting submesoscale variability could be a major influence on cold pool propagation.
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- PAR ID:
- 10630763
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
- Volume:
- 82
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 0022-4928
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1481 to 1497
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- Maritime Continent North America Cold pools Radars/Radar observations Radiosonde/rawinsonde observations Satellite observations
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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