An official website of the United States government
This data release contains two debris-flow inventories summarizing observations from burned and unburned areas in the western Cascade Range of Oregon (OR). The burned inventory focuses on debris flows that occurred during the first two years after the 2020 Archie Creek, Holiday Farm, Beachie Creek/Lionshead, and Riverside fires (OR_field_observations.csv). The unburned inventory (1995-2022) focuses on debris flows in the same areas (excluding the Riverside Fire). The inventories are derived from field observations (OR_field_observations.csv) and aerial imagery (OR_imagery_observations.csv). They include mapped debris-flow initiation locations, descriptions of the inferred initiation process, other notable site characteristics, and rainfall data. Locations of debris flows observed after wildfires are also linked to USGS postfire debris-flow hazard assessments (USGS, 2022; Staley and others, 2017; Thomas and others 2023). Rainfall characteristics for each debris flow in the inventory are derived from the closest rainfall gage to an observed debris flow (gage_locations.csv). Peak rainfall rates during the known time window of debris-flow initiation are reported for durations of 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 60 minutes, 12 hours, 24 hours, 36 hours, and 48 hours. More detailed explanations of the headers for each of these csv files can be found within the README_csvname.txt file. References: Landslide Hazards Program. (n.d.). Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards. U.S. Geological Survey. https://landslides.usgs.gov/hazards/postfire_debrisflow Staley, D. M., Negri, J. A., Kean, J. W., Laber, J. L., Tillery, A. C., and Youberg, A. M., 2017, Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States. Geomorphology, 278, 149–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.10.019 Thomas, M. A., Kean, J. W., McCoy, S. W., Lindsay, D. N., Kostelnik, J., Cavagnaro, D. B., Rengers, F. K., East, A. E., Schwartz, J. Y., Smith, D. P., and Collins, B. D., 2023, Postfire hydrologic response along the Central California (USA) coast: insights for the emergency assessment of postfire debris-flow hazards. Landslides, 20, 2421-2436. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-023-02106-7
more »
« less
This content will become publicly available on August 28, 2026
Improved Prediction of Postfire Debris Flows Through Rainfall Anomaly Maps
Predicting where runoff‐generated debris flows might occur during rainfall on steep, recently burned terrain is challenging. Studies of mass‐movement processes in unburned areas indicate that event locations are well‐predicted by rainfall anomaly,R*, in which peak observed rainfall is normalized by local rainfall climatology. Here, we use remote and field methods to map debris flows triggered within the 2020 Dolan Fire burn area in coastal California, demonstrate that a short‐durationR*metric predicts debris‐flow occurrence more effectively than absolute peak intensity or longer‐duration rainfall metrics, and show that incorporating anR*criterion into an existing debris‐flow likelihood model can reduce false positive predictions and improve accuracy. We testR* at three other climatically distinct fires in California, demonstrating its utility for mapping likely debris‐flow locations in different climates. We also consider howR*can benefit postfire debris‐flow prediction given recent increases in climatological variability within individual burn perimeters.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1951185
- PAR ID:
- 10631952
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 52
- Issue:
- 16
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract. In steep wildfire-burned terrains, intense rainfall can produce large runoff that can trigger highly destructive debris flows. However, the abilityto accurately characterize and forecast debris flow susceptibility in burned terrains using physics-based tools remains limited. Here, we augmentthe Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) to simulate both overland and channelized flows and assess postfiredebris flow susceptibility over a regional domain. We perform hindcast simulations using high-resolution weather-radar-derived precipitation andreanalysis data to drive non-burned baseline and burn scar sensitivity experiments. Our simulations focus on January 2021 when an atmospheric rivertriggered numerous debris flows within a wildfire burn scar in Big Sur – one of which destroyed California's famous Highway 1. Compared to thebaseline, our burn scar simulation yields dramatic increases in total and peak discharge and shorter lags between rainfall onset and peakdischarge, consistent with streamflow observations at nearby US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gage sites. For the 404 catchments located inthe simulated burn scar area, median catchment-area-normalized peak discharge increases by ∼ 450 % compared to the baseline. Catchmentswith anomalously high catchment-area-normalized peak discharge correspond well with post-event field-based and remotely sensed debris flowobservations. We suggest that our regional postfire debris flow susceptibility analysis demonstrates WRF-Hydro as a compelling new physics-basedtool whose utility could be further extended via coupling to sediment erosion and transport models and/or ensemble-based operational weatherforecasts. Given the high-fidelity performance of our augmented version of WRF-Hydro, as well as its potential usage in probabilistic hazardforecasts, we argue for its continued development and application in postfire hydrologic and natural hazard assessments.more » « less
-
Abstract Landscapes following wildfire commonly have significant increases in sediment yield and debris flows that pose major hazards and are difficult to predict. Ultimately, post-wildfire sediment yield is governed by processes that deliver sediment from hillslopes to channels, but it is commonly unclear the degree to which hillslope sediment delivery is driven by wet versus dry processes, which limits the ability to predict debris-flow occurrence and response to climate change. Here we use repeat airborne lidar topography to track sediment movement following the 2009 CE Station Fire in southern California, USA, and show that post-wildfire debris flows initiated in channels filled by dry sediment transport, rather than on hillsides during rainfall as typically assumed. We found widespread patterns of 1–3 m of dry sediment loading in headwater channels immediately following wildfire and before rainfall, followed by sediment excavation during subsequent storms. In catchments where post-wildfire dry sediment loading was absent, possibly due to differences in lithology, channel scour during storms did not occur. Our results support a fire-flood model in bedrock landscapes whereby debris-flow occurrence depends on dry sediment loading rather than hillslope-runoff erosion, shallow landslides, or burn severity, indicating that sediment supply can limit debris-flow occurrence in bedrock landscapes with more-frequent fires.more » « less
-
Abstract Post‐fire debris flows represent one of the most erosive consequences associated with increasing wildfire severity and investigations into their downstream impacts have been limited. Recent advances have linked existing hydrogeomorphic models to predict potential impacts of post‐fire erosion at watershed scales on downstream water resources. Here we address two key limitations in current models: (1) accurate predictions of post‐fire debris flow volumes in the absence of triggering storm rainfall intensities and (2) understanding controls on grain sizes produced by post‐fire debris flows. We compiled and analysed a novel dataset of depositional volumes and grain size distributions (GSDs) for 59 post‐fire debris flows across the Intermountain West (IMW) collected via fieldwork and from the literature. We first evaluated the utility of existing models for post‐fire debris flow volume prediction, which were largely developed for Southern California. We then constructed a new post‐fire debris flow volume prediction model for the IMW using a combination of Random Forest modelling and regression analysis. We found topography and burn severity to be important variables, and that the percentage of pre‐fire soil organic matter was an essential predictor variable. Our model was also capable of predicting debris flow volumes without data for the triggering storm, suggesting that rainfall may be more important as a presence/absence predictor, rather than a scaling variable. We also constructed the first models that predict the median, 16th percentile, and 84th percentile grain sizes, as well as boulder size, produced by post‐fire debris flows. These models demonstrate consistent landscape controls on debris flow GSDs that are related to land cover, physical and chemical weathering, and hillslope sediment transport processes. This work advances our ability to predict how post‐fire sediment pulses are transported through watersheds. Our models allow for improved pre‐ and post‐fire risk assessments across diverse ranges of watersheds in the IMW.more » « less
-
The size, frequency, and geographic scope of severe wildfires are expanding across the globe, including in the Western United States. Recently burned steeplands have an increased likelihood of debris flows, which pose hazards to downstream communities. The conditions for postfire debris‐flow initiation are commonly expressed as rainfall intensity‐duration thresholds, which can be estimated given sufficient observational history. However, the spread of wildfire across diverse climates poses a challenge for accurate threshold prediction in areas with limited observations. Studies of mass‐movement processes in unburned areas indicate that thresholds vary with local climate, such that higher rainfall rates are required for initiation in climates characterized by frequent intense rainfall. Here, we use three independent methods to test whether initiation of postfire runoff‐generated debris flows across the Western United States varies similarly with climate. Through the compilation of observed thresholds at various fires, analysis of the spatial density of observed debris flows, and quantification of feature importance at different spatial scales, we show that postfire debris‐flow initiation thresholds vary systematically with short‐duration rainfall‐intensity climatology. The predictive power of climatological data sets that are readily available before a fire occurs offers a much‐needed tool for hazard management in regions that are facing increased wildfire activity, have sparse observational history, and/or have limited resources for field‐based hazard assessment. Furthermore, if the observed variation in thresholds reflects long‐term adjustment of the landscape to local climate, rapid shifts in rainfall intensity related to climate change will likely induce spatially variable shifts in postfire debris‐flow likelihood.more » « less
