Summary Observational evidence indicates that tree leaf area may acclimate in response to changes in water availability to alleviate hydraulic stress. However, the underlying mechanisms driving leaf area changes and consequences of different leaf area allocation strategies remain unknown.Here, we use a trait‐based hydraulically enabled tree model with two endmember leaf area allocation strategies, aimed at either maximizing carbon gain or moderating hydraulic stress. We examined the impacts of these strategies on future plant stress and productivity.Allocating leaf area to maximize carbon gain increased productivity with high CO2, but systematically increased hydraulic stress. Following an allocation strategy to avoid increased future hydraulic stress missed out on 26% of the potential future net primary productivity in some geographies. Both endmember leaf area allocation strategies resulted in leaf area decreases under future climate scenarios, contrary to Earth system model (ESM) predictions.Leaf area acclimation to avoid increased hydraulic stress (and potentially the risk of accelerated mortality) was possible, but led to reduced carbon gain. Accounting for plant hydraulic effects on canopy acclimation in ESMs could limit or reverse current projections of future increases in leaf area, with consequences for the carbon and water cycles, and surface energy budgets.
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Betting on rains that do not come: Monsoon failure and leaf area overshoot relate to increased tree mortality from drought
Structural overshoots, where biomass is overallocated to tree leaf area compared to sapwood area, could result in lethal stress during droughts. Climate change may alter climatic cues that drive leaf area production, such as temperature and precipitation, as well as seasonal dynamics that underlie summer rainfall due to the North American Monsoon (NAM). Combined, this could lead to temporal mismatches between leaf area‐driven water demand and availability, and increased drought‐induced mortality events.We used leaf area to sapwood area ratios to investigate the prevalence of overshoots and whether overshoots increase drought‐induced mortality. We measured populations of aspen spanning the northern transition zone of the NAM during and following severe droughts.We observed increased overshoots and drought‐induced mortality in southern latitude populations that rely more on summer monsoon rainfall. Changes in convective activity from low snowpack the preceding winter may be a climatic driver of heightened summer monsoon rainfall in the region and therefore may also trigger increased production of leaf area during wetter summers.Our results suggest that an overshoot of leaf area to sapwood area (AL:AS) ratios is associated with drought‐induced tree mortality and highlight that climate‐change driven alterations to the NAM could have major consequences for tree species' acclimation to environmental change. Read the freePlain Language Summaryfor this article on the Journal blog.
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- PAR ID:
- 10635469
- Publisher / Repository:
- British Ecological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Functional Ecology
- Volume:
- 39
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 0269-8463
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1840 to 1852
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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