Forest leaf area has enormous leverage on the carbon cycle because it mediates both forest productivity and resilience to climate extremes. Despite widespread evidence that trees are capable of adjusting to changes in environment across both space and time through modifying carbon allocation to leaves, many vegetation models use fixed carbon allocation schemes independent of environment, which introduces large uncertainties into predictions of future forest responses to atmospheric CO2fertilization and anthropogenic climate change. Here, we develop an optimization‐based model, whereby tree carbon allocation to leaves is an emergent property of environment and plant hydraulic traits. Using a combination of meta‐analysis, observational datasets, and model predictions, we find strong evidence that optimal hydraulic–carbon coupling explains observed patterns in leaf allocation across large environmental and CO2concentration gradients. Furthermore, testing the sensitivity of leaf allocation strategy to a diversity in hydraulic and economic spectrum physiological traits, we show that plant hydraulic traits in particular have an enormous impact on the global change response of forest leaf area. Our results provide a rigorous theoretical underpinning for improving carbon cycle predictions through advancing model predictions of leaf area, and underscore that tree‐level carbon allocation to leaves should be derived from first principles using mechanistic plant hydraulic processes in the next generation of vegetation models.
This content will become publicly available on September 26, 2025
Observational evidence indicates that tree leaf area may acclimate in response to changes in water availability to alleviate hydraulic stress. However, the underlying mechanisms driving leaf area changes and consequences of different leaf area allocation strategies remain unknown. Here, we use a trait‐based hydraulically enabled tree model with two endmember leaf area allocation strategies, aimed at either maximizing carbon gain or moderating hydraulic stress. We examined the impacts of these strategies on future plant stress and productivity. Allocating leaf area to maximize carbon gain increased productivity with high CO2, but systematically increased hydraulic stress. Following an allocation strategy to avoid increased future hydraulic stress missed out on 26% of the potential future net primary productivity in some geographies. Both endmember leaf area allocation strategies resulted in leaf area decreases under future climate scenarios, contrary to Earth system model (ESM) predictions. Leaf area acclimation to avoid increased hydraulic stress (and potentially the risk of accelerated mortality) was possible, but led to reduced carbon gain. Accounting for plant hydraulic effects on canopy acclimation in ESMs could limit or reverse current projections of future increases in leaf area, with consequences for the carbon and water cycles, and surface energy budgets.
- Award ID(s):
- 2003205
- PAR ID:
- 10548385
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- New Phytologist
- ISSN:
- 0028-646X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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