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Louisiana is one of the most hazard-prone states in the U.S., and many of its people are engaged directly or indirectly in agricultural activities that are impacted by an array of weather hazards. However, most hazard impact research on agriculture to date, for Louisiana and elsewhere, has focused on floods and hurricanes. This research develops a method of future crop loss risk assessment due to droughts, extreme low and high temperatures, hail, lightning, and tornadoes, using Louisiana as a case study. This approach improves future crop risk assessment by incorporating historical crop loss, historical and modeled future hazard intensity, cropland extent, population, consumer demand, cropping intensity, and technological development as predictors of future risk. The majority of crop activities occurred and will continue to occur in south-central and northeastern Louisiana along the river basins. Despite the fact that cropland is decreasing across most of the state, weather impacts to cropland are anticipated to increase substantially by 2050. Drought is by far the costliest among the six hazards, accounting for $56.1 million of $59.2 million (∼95%) in 2050-projected crop loss, followed by extreme cold ($1.4 million), extreme heat ($1.0 million), tornadoes ($0.4 million), hail ($0.2 million), and lightning ($0.05 million), respectively. These findings will assist decision-makers to minimize risk and enhance agricultural resilience to future weather hazards, thereby strengthening this economically-important industry in Louisiana and enhancing food security.
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This content will become publicly available on February 11, 2026
Adoption of improved crop varieties limited biodiversity losses, terrestrial carbon emissions, and cropland expansion in the tropics
Research investments in crop improvements, including by national and international agricultural research centers, have made significant contributions to raising yields of staple food crops in developing countries. Although mostly intended to improve food security and rural incomes, innovations in crop production also have major implications for the environment. Building on the latest productivity estimates from historical crop improvements in developing countries and using a gridded (0.25 degrees) equilibrium model of global agriculture, we assess the impacts of improved crop varieties on cropland use, threatened biodiversity, and terrestrial carbon stocks over 1961–2015. We replicate a historical baseline and produce a counterfactual scenario which shows the impact of omitting productivity improvements from these technologies. The results show that higher crop productivity generally lowered commodity prices, which reduced incentives to expand cropland except in those areas where productivity gains outweighed price declines. The net global effect of technology adoption was to limit conversion of natural habitat to agricultural use, although it did cause cropland to expand in some areas. We estimate that adoption of improved crop varieties in developing countries saved on net 16.03 [95% CI, 12.33 to 20.89] million hectares worldwide. With more natural habitat preserved, around 1,043 [95% CI, 616 to 1,503] threatened animal and plant species extinctions were avoided over this period. In addition, net land use savings from the improved crop varieties resulted in avoided terrestrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of around 5.35 [95% CI, 3.75 to 7.22] billion metric tons CO2equivalent retained in terrestrial carbon stocks.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2118329
- PAR ID:
- 10637101
- Publisher / Repository:
- National Academy of Sciences
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 122
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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