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Abstract In response to global warming, ozone is predicted to increase aloft due to stratospheric cooling but decrease in the tropical lower stratosphere. The ozone reductions have been primarily attributed to a strengthening Brewer‐Dobson circulation, which upwells ozone‐poor air. Yet, this paper finds that strengthening upwelling only explains part of the reduction. The reduction is also driven by tropospheric expansion under global warming, which erodes the ozone layer from below, the low ozone anomalies from which are advected upwards. Strengthening upwelling and tropospheric expansion are correlated under global warming, making it challenging to disentangle their relative contributions. Therefore, chemistry‐climate model output is used to validate an idealized model of ozone photochemistry and transport with a tropopause lower boundary condition. In our idealized decomposition, strengthening upwelling and tropospheric expansion both contribute at leading order to reducing tropical ozone. Tropospheric expansion drives bottom‐heavy reductions in ozone, which decay in magnitude into the mid‐stratosphere.
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This content will become publicly available on May 16, 2026
The Double Dip: How Tropospheric Expansion Counteracts Increases in Extratropical Stratospheric Ozone Under Global Warming
Abstract In response to rising , chemistry‐climate models (CCMs) project that extratropical stratospheric ozone will increase, except around 10 and 17 km. We call the muted increases or reductions at these altitudes the “double dip.” The double dip results from surface warming (not stratospheric cooling). Using an idealized photochemical‐transport model, surface warming is found to produce the double dip via tropospheric expansion, which converts ozone‐rich stratospheric air into ozone‐poor tropospheric air. The lower dip results from expansion of the extratropical troposphere, as previously understood. The upper dip results from expansion of the tropical troposphere, low‐ozone anomalies from which are then transported into the extratropics. Large seasonality in the double dip in CCMs can be explained, at least in part, by seasonality in the stratospheric overturning circulation. The remote effects of the tropical tropopause on extratropical ozone complicate the use of (local) tropopause‐following coordinates to remove the effects of global warming.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2004572
- PAR ID:
- 10639221
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Geophysical Union
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 52
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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