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Abstract Utilizing a 2200-yr CESM1 preindustrial simulation, this study examines the influence of property distinctions between single-year (SY) and multiyear (MY) La Niñas on their respective impacts on winter surface air temperatures across mid–high-latitude continents in the model, focusing on specific teleconnection mechanisms. Distinct impacts were identified in four continent sectors: North America, Europe, Western Siberia (W-Siberia), and Eastern Siberia (E-Siberia). The typical impacts of simulated SY La Niña events are featured with anomalous warming over Europe and W&E-Siberia and anomalous cooling over North America. Simulated MY La Niña events reduce the typical anomalous cooling over North America and the typical anomalous warming over W&E-Siberia but intensify the typical anomalous warming over Europe. The distinct impacts of simulated MY La Niñas are more prominent during their first winter than during the second winter, except over W-Siberia, where the distinct impact is more pronounced during the second winter. These overall distinct impacts in the CESM1 simulation can be attributed to the varying sensitivities of these continent sectors to the differences between MY and SY La Niñas in their intensity, location, and induced sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean. These property differences were linked to the distinct climate impacts through the Pacific North America, North Atlantic Oscillation, Indian Ocean–induced wave train, and tropical North Atlantic–induced wave train mechanisms. The modeling results are then validated against observations from 1900 to 2022 to identify disparities in the CESM1 simulation.
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This content will become publicly available on December 1, 2026
Amplified impacts of multi-year La Niñas on soil moisture compared to single-year La Niñas
Abstract This study examines December-January-February (DJF) soil moisture responses to multi-year (MY) and single-year (SY) La Niñas using a 2200-year CESM1 simulation, AGCM experiments, and observational data. Four regions where MY La Niñas amplify SY La Niñas’ impacts on soil moisture were identified: North America, Australia, the Middle East, and the Sahel. SY La Niñas typically cause soil moisture drying in the Middle East and North America and wetting in Australia and the Sahel. MY La Niñas enhance these effects in the second DJF due to the strengthening of precipitation anomalies or the accumulation of precipitation-induced soil moisture anomalies, except in the Sahel where wetting is driven in part by evapotranspiration anomalies. Soil moisture variations are linked to La Niña-induced sea surface temperature changes in the Indian Ocean (for Australia and the Middle East) and the Pacific Ocean (for North America). These amplified effects are largely supported by the observed MY La Niña events from 1948 to 2022. These findings emphasize the need to integrate MY La Niñas into regional agriculture and water resource management strategies to better anticipate and mitigate their impacts.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2109539
- PAR ID:
- 10644549
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer Nature
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
- Volume:
- 8
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2397-3722
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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