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1. Five million years of Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength variability

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07143-3  

   Lamy, Frank; Winckler, Gisela; Arz, Helge W.; Farmer, Jesse R.; Gottschalk, Julia; Lembke-Jene, Lester; Middleton, Jennifer L.; van der Does, Michèlle; Tiedemann, Ralf; Alvarez Zarikian, Carlos; et al (March 2024, Nature)

   The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) represents the world’s largest ocean-current system and affects global ocean circulation, climate and Antarctic ice-sheet stability^1–3. Today, ACC dynamics are controlled by atmospheric forcing, oceanic density gradients and eddy activity⁴. Whereas palaeoceanographic reconstructions exhibit regional heterogeneity in ACC position and strength over Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles^5–8, the long-term evolution of the ACC is poorly known. Here we document changes in ACC strength from sediment cores in the Pacific Southern Ocean. We find no linear long-term trend in ACC flow since 5.3 million years ago (Ma), in contrast to global cooling⁹and increasing global ice volume¹⁰. Instead, we observe a reversal on a million-year timescale, from increasing ACC strength during Pliocene global cooling to a subsequent decrease with further Early Pleistocene cooling. This shift in the ACC regime coincided with a Southern Ocean reconfiguration that altered the sensitivity of the ACC to atmospheric and oceanic forcings^11–13. We find ACC strength changes to be closely linked to 400,000-year eccentricity cycles, probably originating from modulation of precessional changes in the South Pacific jet stream linked to tropical Pacific temperature variability¹⁴. A persistent link between weaker ACC flow, equatorward-shifted opal deposition and reduced atmospheric CO₂during glacial periods first emerged during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). The strongest ACC flow occurred during warmer-than-present intervals of the Plio-Pleistocene, providing evidence of potentially increasing ACC flow with future climate warming. 

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2. Reconciling atmospheric CO ₂ , weathering, and calcite compensation depth across the Cenozoic

   https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd4876  

   Komar, Nemanja; Zeebe, Richard E. (January 2021, Science Advances)

   null (Ed.)

   The Cenozoic era (66 to 0 million years) is marked by long-term aberrations in carbon cycling and large climatic shifts, some of which challenge the current understanding of carbon cycle dynamics. Here, we investigate possible mechanisms responsible for the observed long-term trends by using a novel approach that features a full-fledged ocean carbonate chemistry model. Using a compilation of pCO 2 , pH, and calcite compensation depth (CCD) observational evidence and a suite of simulations, we reconcile long-term Cenozoic climate and CCD trends. We show that the CCD response was decoupled from changes in silicate and carbonate weathering rates, challenging the continental uplift hypothesis. The two dominant mechanisms for decoupling are shelf-basin carbonate burial fractionation combined with proliferation of pelagic calcifiers. The temperature effect on remineralization rates of marine organic matter also plays a critical role in controlling the carbon cycle dynamics, especially during the warmer periods of the Cenozoic. 

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3. Polar amplification of orbital-scale climate variability in the early Eocene greenhouse world

   https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1303-2024  

   Fokkema, Chris D; Agterhuis, Tobias; Gerritsma, Danielle; de_Goeij, Myrthe; Liu, Xiaoqing; de_Regt, Pauline; Rice, Addison; Vennema, Laurens; Agnini, Claudia; Bijl, Peter K; et al (January 2024, Climate of the Past)

   Abstract. Climate variability is typically amplified towards polar regions. The underlying causes, notably albedo and humidity changes, are challenging to accurately quantify with observations or models, thus hampering projections of future polar amplification. Polar amplification reconstructions from the ice-free early Eocene (∼56–48 Ma) can exclude ice albedo effects, but the required tropical temperature records for resolving timescales shorter than multi-million years are lacking. Here, we reconstruct early Eocene tropical sea surface temperature variability by presenting an up to ∼4 kyr resolution biomarker-based temperature record from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 959, located in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This record shows warming across multiple orbitally paced carbon cycle perturbations, coeval with high-latitude-derived deep-ocean bottom waters, showing that these events represent transient global warming events (hyperthermals). This implies that orbital forcing caused global temperature variability through carbon cycle feedbacks. Importantly, deep-ocean temperature variability was amplified by a factor of 1.7–2.3 compared to the tropical surface ocean, corroborating available long-term estimates. This implies that fast atmospheric feedback processes controlled meridional temperature gradients on multi-million year, as well as orbital, timescales during the early Eocene. Our combined records have several other implications. First, our amplification factor is somewhat larger than the same metric in fully coupled simulations of the early Eocene (1.1–1.3), suggesting that models slightly underestimate the non-ice-related – notably hydrological – feedbacks that cause polar amplification of climate change. Second, even outside the hyperthermals, we find synchronous eccentricity-forced temperature variability in the tropics and deep ocean that represent global mean sea surface temperature variability of up to 0.7 °C, which requires significant variability in atmospheric pCO2. We hypothesize that the responsible carbon cycle feedbacks that are independent of ice, snow, and frost-related processes might play an important role in Phanerozoic orbital-scale climate variability throughout geological time, including Pleistocene glacial–interglacial climate variability. 

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4. Large Igneous Province Sulfur Emissions Have Long‐Term (>1000 Years) Effects on the Ocean Carbon Cycle

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GC011893  

   Cheong, Hee_Jun; Mittal, Tushar; Sprain, Courtney_Jean; Fendley, Isabel_M (March 2025, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems)

   Abstract Large Igneous Province (LIP) eruptions are thought to have driven environmental and climate change over wide temporal scales ranging from a few to thousands of years. Since the radiative effects and atmospheric lifetime of carbon dioxide (CO₂, warming) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂, cooling) are very different, the conventional assumption has been to analyze the effects of CO₂and SO₂emissions separately and add them together afterward. In this study, we test this assumption by analyzing the joint effect of CO₂and SO₂on the marine carbonate cycle using a biogeochemical carbon cycle box model (Long‐term Ocean‐atmosphere‐Sediment CArbon cycle Reservoir Model). By performing model runs with very fine temporal resolution (∼0.1‐year timestep), we analyze the effects of LIP carbon and sulfur gas emissions on timescales ranging from an individual eruption (hundreds to thousands of years) to the entire long‐term carbon cycle (>100,000 years). We find that, contrary to previous work, sulfur emissions have significant long‐term (>1,000 years) effects on the marine carbon cycle (dissolved inorganic carbon, pH, alkalinity, and carbonate compensation depth). This is due to two processes: the strongly temperature‐dependent equilibrium coefficients for marine carbonate chemistry and the few thousand‐year timescale for ocean overturning circulation. Thus, the effects of volcanic sulfur are not simply additive to the impact of carbon emissions. We develop a causal mechanistic framework to visualize the feedbacks associated with combined carbon and sulfur emissions and the associated timescales. Our results provide a new perspective for understanding the complex feedback mechanisms controlling the environmental effects of large volcanic eruptions over Earth history. 

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5. Vegetation green‐up date is more sensitive to permafrost degradation than climate change in spring across the northern permafrost region

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16011  

   Wang, Jian; Liu, Desheng (December 2021, Global Change Biology)

   Abstract Global climate change substantially influences vegetation spring phenology, that is, green‐up date (GUD), in the northern permafrost region. Changes in GUD regulate ecosystem carbon uptake, further feeding back to local and regional climate systems. Extant studies mainly focused on the direct effects of climate factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and insolation; however, the responses of GUD to permafrost degradation caused by warming (i.e., indirect effects) remain elusive yet. In this study, we examined the impacts of permafrost degradation on GUD by analyzing the long‐term trend of satellite‐based GUD in relation to permafrost degradation measured by the start of thaw (SOT) and active layer thickness (ALT). We found significant trends of advancing GUD, SOT, and thickening ALT (p < 0.05), with a spatially averaged slope of −2.1 days decade⁻¹, −4.1 days decade⁻¹, and +1.1 cm decade⁻¹, respectively. Using partial correlation analyses, we found more than half of the regions with significantly negative correlations between spring temperature and GUD became nonsignificant after considering permafrost degradation. GUD exhibits dominant‐positive (37.6% vs. 0.6%) and dominant‐negative (1.8% vs. 35.1%) responses to SOT and ALT, respectively. Earlier SOT and thicker ALT would enhance soil water availability, thus alleviating water stress for vegetation green‐up. Based on sensitivity analyses, permafrost degradation was the dominant factor controlling GUD variations in 41.7% of the regions, whereas only 19.6% of the regions were dominated by other climatic factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation, and insolation). Our results indicate that GUDs were more sensitive to permafrost degradation than direct climate change in spring among different vegetation types, especially in high latitudes. This study reveals the significant impacts of permafrost degradation on vegetation GUD and highlights the importance of permafrost status in better understanding spring phenological responses to future climate change. 

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