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Abstract In addition to measuring forecast accuracy in terms of errors in a tropical system’s forecast track and other meteorological characteristics, it is important to measure the impact of those errors on society. With this in mind, the authors designed a coupled natural–human modeling framework with high-level representations of the natural hazard (hurricane), the human system (information flow, evacuation decisions), the built environment (road infrastructure), and connections between elements (forecasts and warning information, traffic). Using the model, this article begins exploring how tropical cyclone forecast errors impact evacuations and, in doing so, builds toward the development of new verification approaches. Specifically, the authors implement track errors representative of 2007 and 2022, and create situations with unexpected rapid intensification and/or rapid onset, and evaluate their impact on evacuations across real and hypothetical forecast scenarios (e.g., Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Dorian making landfall across east Florida). The results provide first-order evidence that 1) reduced forecast track errors across the 2007–22 period translate to improvements in evacuation outcomes across these cases and 2) unexpected rapid intensification and/or rapid onset scenarios can reduce evacuation rates, and increase traffic, across the most impacted areas. In exploring these relationships, the results demonstrate how experiments with coupled natural–human models can offer a societally relevant complement to traditional metrics of forecast accuracy. In doing so, this work points toward further development of natural–human models and associated methodologies to address these types of questions and improve forecast verification across the weather enterprise.
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Residents’ immediate Response to the 2023 Maui Wildfire:Subtitle
This project for Rapid Response Research (RAPID) project collects ephemeral data to better understand the compounding impacts of Maui wildfires and Hurricane Dora and reveal residents' behavioral responses as affected by infrastructure failures. It examines the sources of warning information, protective action decision-making, and evacuation logistics at the individual level. In the meantime, the project captures the operation states of disaster warning operations in Maui under the loss of cell and electric power services. Failures at each system are documented, as well as the cascading effect among inter-connected infrastructure systems. The research outcomes expand the existing body of scientific knowledge on warning and evacuation while advancing the understanding of informal networks and decision-making in the absence of official guidance.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2345642
- PAR ID:
- 10647094
- Publisher / Repository:
- Designsafe-CI
- Date Published:
- Edition / Version:
- 2
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- Wildifire Evacuation Warning Risk communication Disaster Hurricane
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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In addition to measuring forecast accuracy in terms of errors in a tropical system’s forecast track and other meteorological characteristics, it is important to measure the impact of those errors on society. With this in mind, the authors designed a coupled natural–human modeling framework with high-level representations of the natural hazard (hurricane), the human system (information flow, evacuation decisions), the built environment (road infrastructure), and connec- tions between elements (forecasts and warning information, traffic). Using the model, this article begins exploring how tropical cyclone forecast errors impact evacuations and, in doing so, builds toward the development of new verification approaches. Specifically, the authors implement track errors representative of 2007 and 2022, and create situations with unexpected rapid intensifica- tion and/or rapid onset, and evaluate their impact on evacuations across real and hypothetical forecast scenarios (e.g., Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Dorian making landfall across east Florida). The results provide first-order evidence that 1) reduced forecast track errors across the 2007–22 period translate to improvements in evacuation outcomes across these cases and 2) unexpected rapid intensification and/or rapid onset scenarios can reduce evacuation rates, and increase traffic, across the most impacted areas. In exploring these relationships, the results demonstrate how experiments with coupled natural–human models can offer a societally relevant complement to traditional metrics of forecast accuracy. In doing so, this work points toward further development of natural–human models and associated methodologies to address these types of questions and improve forecast verification across the weather enterprise.more » « less
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