An official website of the United States government
Tropical storms pose a significant risk to coastal populations, including those throughout the Caribbean and along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America. The impact of climate change on tropical storms is multifaceted, and patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) change may play a role in shaping future tropical storm risk. While the SST fingerprints associated with changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may be uncertain, the North Atlantic Warming Hole (NAWH) and enhanced SST warming near the Gulf Stream are robust features of both past and projected future climate change. Here we use the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) to highlight the remote contributions of both of these potential SST fingerprints of AMOC decline to changes in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis potential in the Atlantic basin, and thus to uncertainty in future coastal climate risk. Both the NAWH and enhanced warming near the Gulf Stream lead to significant changes in TC genesis potential, particularly in the western North Atlantic (between Bermuda and the Bahamas), the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, where changes are on the order of ±10% over the full Atlantic hurricane season, with considerably stronger responses focused in the two halves of the season. Diagnosis of the Genesis Potential Index (GPI) indicates that changes in mid-tropospheric humidity and vertical wind shear are the most important factors driving these responses. The simulated changes in GPI occur in regions of considerable historical TC genesis, highlighting the need to further understand the historical and projected future patterns of SST change in the North Atlantic Ocean, including their relationship to AMOC and its potential decline.
more »
« less
This content will become publicly available on May 28, 2026
HurriCast: Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Track Generation for Hurricane Forecasting
The generation of synthetic tropical cyclone tracks for Risk assessment is a critical application of preparedness for the impacts of climate change and disaster relief, particularly in North America. Insurance companies use these synthetic tracks to estimate the potential risks and financial impacts of future tropical cyclones. For governments and policymakers, understanding the potential impacts of tropical cyclones helps in developing effective emergency response strategies, updating building codes, and prioritizing investments in resilience and mitigation projects. In this study, many hypothetical but plausible TC scenarios are created based on historical TC data HURDAT2 (HURricane DATa 2nd generation). A hybrid methodology, combining the ARIMA and K-MEANS methods with Autoencoder, is employed to capture better historical TC behaviors and project future trajectories and intensities. It demonstrates an efficient and reliable in the field of climate modeling and risk assessment. By effectively capturing past hurricane patterns and providing detailed future projections, this approach not only validates the reliability of this method but also offers crucial insights for a range of applications, from disaster preparedness and emergency management to insurance risk analysis and policy formulation.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2514351
- PAR ID:
- 10649996
- Publisher / Repository:
- Proceedings of the AAAI Symposium Series
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the AAAI Symposium Series
- Volume:
- 5
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2994-4317
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 143 to 150
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Ensemble‐based data assimilation of radar observations across inner‐core regions of tropical cyclones (TCs) in tandem with satellite all‐sky infrared (IR) radiances across the TC domain improves TC track and intensity forecasts. This study further investigates potential enhancements in TC track, intensity, and rainfall forecasts via assimilation of all‐sky microwave (MW) radiances using Hurricane Harvey (2017) as an example. Assimilating Global Precipitation Measurement constellation all‐sky MW radiances in addition to GOES‐16 all‐sky IR radiances reduces the forecast errors in the TC track, rapid intensification (RI), and peak intensity compared to assimilating all‐sky IR radiances alone, including a 24‐hr increase in forecast lead‐time for RI. Assimilating all‐sky MW radiances also improves Harvey's hydrometeor fields, which leads to improved forecasts of rainfall after Harvey's landfall. This study indicates that avenues exist for producing more accurate forecasts for TCs using available yet underutilized data, leading to better warnings of and preparedness for TC‐associated hazards in the future.more » « less
-
Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating damage to life and property. Historical TC data is scarce, complicating adequate TC risk assessments. Synthetic TC models are specifically designed to overcome this scarcity. While these models have been evaluated on their ability to simulate TC activity, no study to date has focused on model performance and applicability in TC risk assessments. This study performs the intercomparison of four different global-scale synthetic TC datasets in the impact space, comparing impact return period curves, probability of rare events, and hazard intensity distribution over land. We find that the model choice influences the costliest events, particularly in basins with limited TC activity. Modelled direct economic damages in the North Indian Ocean, for instance, range from 40 to 246 billion USD for the 100-yr event over the four hazard sets. We furthermore provide guidelines for the suitability of the different synthetic models for various research purposes.more » « less
-
Abstract Studies have quantified the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) toward seasonal precipitation, but limited analysis is available on TC contribution toward seasonal streamflow over the southeastern and southcentral (SESC) United States (U.S.). Using an extensive network of hydroclimatic data that consists of 233 TC tracks and daily precipitation and streamflow, we estimate TC contribution toward precipitation and streamflow during the hurricane season over the SESC U.S. We found that TCs account for 12% of seasonal streamflow and 6% of seasonal precipitation over the region. Florida, North Carolina, and Louisiana have the highest fractional occurrence of TC‐generated annual maximum precipitation (∼20%–32%) and streamflow (∼15%–27%). We also found the fractional occurrence of TCs associated with peak‐over threshold precipitation (streamflow) events ranges from 5% to 8% in coastal regions (10%–20% over FL and 5%–10% over coastal NC). Increased antecedent moisture results in increased TCs contribution to streamflow leading to different land‐surface responses for similar hurricane events.more » « less
-
The future risk of tropical cyclones (TCs) strongly depends on changes in TC frequency, but models have persistently produced contrasting projections. A satisfactory explanation of the projected changes also remains elusive. Here we show a warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces TC formation. This contraction manifests as stronger equatorial convection and weaker off-equatorial convection. It has been robustly projected by climate models, particularly in the northern hemisphere. This contraction shortens TC seasons by delaying the poleward migration of the intertropical convergence zone. At seasonal peaks of TC activity, the equatorial and off-equatorial components of this contraction are associated with TC-hindering environmental changes. Finally, the convection contraction and associated warming patterns can partly explain the ensemble spread in projecting future TC frequency. This study highlights the role of convection contraction and provides motivation for coordinated research to solidify our confidence in future TC risk projections.more » « less
