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Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are drivers of extreme rainfall and surge, but the current and future TC rainfall–surge joint hazard has not been well quantified. Using a physics-based approach to simulate TC rainfall and storm tides, we show drastic increases in the joint hazard from historical to projected future (SSP5–8.5) conditions. The frequency of joint extreme events (exceeding both hazards’ historical 100-year levels) may increase by 7–36-fold in the southern US and 30–195-fold in the Northeast by 2100. This increase in joint hazard is induced by sea-level rise and TC climatology change; the relative contribution of TC climatology change is higher than that of sea-level rise for 96% of the coast, largely due to rainfall increases. Increasing storm intensity and decreasing translation speed are the main TC change factors that cause higher rainfall and storm tides and up to 25% increase in their dependence.
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Investigating the interaction of tropical cyclone-heatwave compound hazards in urban environments
While tropical cyclone (TC) and heatwave (HW) compound hazard extremes are rare in the historical record, they have been recently emerging and are expected to become more frequent under future climate projections. Joint TC-HW hazards can exacerbate heat stress felt by residents, particularly in densely populated urban communities or areas suffering from storm-related power outages. The Princeton Urban Canopy Model (PUCM) has been used to evaluate heatwave conditions in urban environments, but has yet to be used to model joint TC-HW conditions. In this study, we model joint TC-HW hazards by adjusting the surface energy and water budgets of the PUCM to account for TC flood and extreme wind hazards. We investigate joint hazard interactions during Hurricane Laura (2020) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to simulate both Laura's wind field to drive subsequent hydrodynamic modeling of inundation and post-storm atmospheric conditions. The WRF and hydrodynamic modeling results are then used to drive the PUCM to assess the interaction of joint flooding, wind, and heat and their impacts on the city of Lake Charles in Louisiana. Results show that accounting for TC inundation up to a week after landfall can cause over 3°C reductions in daytime heat stress and 1.5°C increases in nighttime heat stress compared to simulations that ignore the presence of flooding. Accounting for defoliation from extreme TC winds can increase maximum nighttime heat stress by more than 4°C.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2103754
- PAR ID:
- 10650853
- Publisher / Repository:
- Elsevier
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Urban Climate
- Volume:
- 64
- Issue:
- C
- ISSN:
- 2212-0955
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 102667
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102667
