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The amount of energy available in a system constrains large-scale patterns of abundance. Here, we test the role of temperature and net primary productivity as drivers of flying insect abundance using a novel continental-scale data source: weather surveillance radar. We use the United States NEXRAD weather radar network to generate a near-daily dataset of insect flight activity across a gradient of temperature and productivity. Insect flight activity was positively correlated with mean annual temperature, explaining 38% of variation across sites. By contrast, net primary productivity did not explain additional variation. Grassland, forest and arid-xeric shrubland biomes differed in their insect flight activity, with the greatest abundance in subtropical and temperate grasslands. The relationship between insect flight abundance and temperature varied across biome types. In arid-xeric shrublands and in forest biomes the temperature–abundance relationship was indirectly (through net primary productivity) or directly (in the form of precipitation) mediated by water availability. These results suggest that temperature constraints on metabolism, development, or flight activity shape macroecological patterns in ectotherm abundance. Assessing the drivers of continental-scale patterns in insect abundance and their variation across biomes is particularly important to predict insect community response to warming conditions. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Towards a toolkit for global insect biodiversity monitoring’.
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This content will become publicly available on November 1, 2026
Systematic Continental Scale Monitoring by Weather Surveillance Radar Shows Fewer Insects Above Warming Landscapes in the United States
ABSTRACT Anthropogenic change is predicted to result in widespread declines in insect abundance, but assessing long‐term trends is challenging due to the scarcity of systematically collected time series measurements across large spatial scales. We develop a novel continental‐scale dataset using a nationwide network of radars in the United States to generate a 10‐year time series of daily aerial insect density and assess temporal trends. We do not find evidence of a continental‐scale net decline in insect density over the 10‐year period included in this study; instead we find a mosaic of increasing and declining trends at the landscape scale. This spatial variation in density trends is associated with climatic drivers, where areas with warmer winters experience greater declines in insect density and areas with cooling winter trends see increases in density. Winter warming has a stronger negative effect on density at higher latitudes. After assessing temporal trends, we also use the 10‐year dataset and atmospheric variables to model insect aerial abundance, finding that on a typical summer day approximately a hundred trillion (1014) flying insects are present in the airspace, representing millions of tons of aerial biomass. Our results provide the first continental‐scale quantification of insect density and its response to anthropogenic warming and demonstrate the utility of weather surveillance radar to provide large‐scale monitoring of insect abundance.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2017582
- PAR ID:
- 10653983
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Global Change Biology
- Volume:
- 31
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 1354-1013
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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