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Title: Long-term declines in chlorophyll a and variable phenology revealed by a 60-year estuarine plankton time series
Long-term ecological time series provide a unique perspective on the emergent properties of ecosystems. In aquatic systems, phytoplankton form the base of the food web and their biomass, measured as the concentration of the photosynthetic pigment chlorophylla(chla), is an indicator of ecosystem quality. We analyzed temporal trends in chlafrom the Long-Term Plankton Time Series in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA, a temperate estuary experiencing long-term warming and changing anthropogenic nutrient inputs. Dynamic linear models were used to impute and model environmental variables (1959 to 2019) and chlaconcentrations (1968 to 2019). A long-term chladecrease was observed with an average decline in the cumulative annual chlaconcentration of 49% and a marked decline of 57% in winter-spring bloom magnitude. The long-term decline in chlaconcentration was directly and indirectly associated with multiple environmental factors that are impacted by climate change (e.g., warming temperatures, water column stratification, reduced nutrient concentrations) indicating the importance of accounting for regional climate change effects in ecosystem-based management. Analysis of seasonal phenology revealed that the winter–spring bloom occurred earlier, at a rate of 4.9 ± 2.8 d decade−1. Finally, the high degree of temporal variation in phytoplankton biomass observed in Narragansett Bay appears common among estuaries, coasts, and open oceans. The commonality among these marine ecosystems highlights the need to maintain a robust set of phytoplankton time series in the coming decades to improve signal-to-noise ratios and identify trends in these highly variable environments.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1655686 2322676
PAR ID:
10512250
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
PNAS
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Volume:
121
Issue:
21
ISSN:
0027-8424
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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