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This content will become publicly available on May 13, 2026

Title: Calculating probabilities from imagined possibilities: Limitations in 4-year-olds
Adults can calculate probabilities by running simulations and calculating proportions of each outcome. How does this ability develop? We developed a method that lets us bring computational modeling to bear on this question. A study of 40 adults and 31 4-year-olds indicates that unlike adults, many 4-year-olds use a single simulation to estimate probability distributions over simulated possibilities. We also implemented the 3-cups task, an established test of children’s sensitivity to possibilities, in a novel format. We replicate existing 3-cups results. Moreover, children who our model categorized as running a single simulation on our novel task show a signature of running a single simulation in the 3-cups task. This signature is not observed in children who were categorized as running multiple simulations. This validates our model and adds to the evidence that about half of 4-year-olds don’t evaluate multiple candidates for reality in parallel.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2121009
PAR ID:
10656863
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Cognitive Science Society
Date Published:
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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