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Various recent reports, based on different approaches, data sets and time periods, have yielded different conclusions with regard to whether blooms of the Florida red tide dinoagellate, Karenia brevis, have increased over time. Without question, however, there have been a number of recent blooms that have been long lasting, continuing through the summer months normally taken to be outside the ideal temperature niche for K. brevis. Here, using a recently developed bloom severity index, the time series of blooms from 1970 to 2019 is examined, focusing on how monthly patterns have changed over time. More severe blooms have been found since the mid 1990s, now lasting 4- to 5-months longer than in previous decades, a trend related to the Oceanic Ni˜no Index (El Ni˜no -Southern Oscillation). Since the mid-1990s, water temperature anomalies have been related to bloom severity with lags of 3 to 6 months. The most signicant temperature increases have occurred in the latter months of the year when K. brevis growth typically is highest. Increased ow from the Caloosahatchee River, and its total nitrogen load, are also predictors of recent bloom severity with lags of several months. Cells that survive the nowwarmer winter dry season have adequate nutrients and may experience more favorable nitrogen forms as the summer wet season develops, and as nutrients are recycled, may “over summer”. The stresses of increased warming and increased nutrient pollution on K. brevis blooms will continue to make managing these blooms a challenge for management as climate change trajectories continue.
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Climate shifts and anthropogenic footprints driving increased severity and duration of toxic Karenia brevis blooms in the Gulf of Mexico over the past ~50 years
Blooms of the toxigenic dinoflagellateKarenia brevisare an almost annual occurrence in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, typically initiating in late summer and early fall months and terminating in late spring or earlier. The question of whether blooms have been expanding in frequency or duration has long been debated. Recently, a Bloom Severity Index (BSI) was developed that captures changes in bloom magnitude based on cell concentrations normalized to maximum observed values. Here, changes in the BSI (severity and bloom duration) were examined for the period from 1970-2019, a period of rapid climate change and increased anthropogenic pressures. This time period encompassed several changes in the Oceanic Niño Index (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation), including a shift from a highly positive to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation in the mid 1990s, bringing with it increased precipitation and more intensive storms. Annual BSI and bloom duration have increased with increasing temperatures, and blooms have also become longer in duration in relation to increased temperatures and river flows since the mid 1990s. As increased precipitation is related to increased nutrient runoff, regional fertilizer use and the anthropogenic nitrogen (N) footprint based on population census data as proxies of nitrogen loads were examined. The duration of severe blooms was highly correlated with the increasing anthropogenic N footprint, especially when BSI values were averaged across multiple years. These relationships highlight the importance of climate changes and of increasing population since the 1980s and help to explain why earlier analyses of nutrient loads and bloom severity were inconclusive. To reduce bloom severity or duration in the future, reductions in N loads and releases from the Caloosahatchee River are needed more than ever to counteract the increasing pressures from climate change.
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- PAR ID:
- 10674039
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer Nature
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Marine Science
- Volume:
- 13
- ISSN:
- 2296-7745
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- anthropogenic footprint, bloom severity index, Florida red tide, Gulf of Mexico, Karenia braves, time series
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2026.1769349
