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Abstract Regional warming and associated changes in hydrologic systems pose challenges to water supply management in river basins of the western United States and call for improved understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of runoff. We apply a network of total width, subannual width, and delta blue intensity tree-ring chronologies in combination with a monthly water balance model to identify droughts and their associated precipitationPand temperatureTfootprints in the Truckee–Carson River basin (TCRB). Stepwise regression gave reasonably accurate reconstructions, from 1688 to 1999, of seasonalPandT(e.g.,R²= 0.50 for May–SeptemberT). These were disaggregated to monthly values, which were then routed through a water balance model to generate “indirectly” reconstructed runoff. Reconstructed and observed annual runoff correlate highly (r= 0.80) from 1906 to 1999. The extended runoff record shows that twentieth-century droughts are unmatched in severity in a 300-yr context. Our water balance modeling reconstruction advances the conventional regression-based dendrochronological methods as it allows for multiple hydrologic components (evapotranspiration, snowmelt, etc.) to be evaluated. We found that imposed warming (3° and 6°C) generally exacerbated the runoff deficits in past droughts but that impact could be lessened and sometimes even reversed in some years by compensating factors, including changes in snow regime. Our results underscore the value of combining multiproxy tree-ring data with water balance modeling to place past hydrologic droughts in the context of climate change. Significance StatementWe show how water balance modeling in combination with tree-ring data helps place modern droughts in the context of the past few centuries and a warming climate. Seasonal precipitation and temperature were reconstructed from multiproxy tree-ring data for a mountainous location near Lake Tahoe, and these reconstructions were routed through a water balance model to get a record of monthly runoff, snowmelt, and other water balance variables from 1688 to 1999. The resulting extended annual runoff record highlights the unmatched severity of twentieth-century droughts. A warming of 3°C imposed on reconstructed temperature generally exacerbates the runoff anomalies in past droughts, but this effect is sometimes offset by warming-related changes in the snow regime. 

The year-to-year variability of precipitation has significant consequences for water management and forest health. “Whiplash” describes an extreme mode of this variability in which hydroclimate switches abruptly between wet and dry conditions. In this study, a pool of total-ring-width indices from five conifer species (Abies magnifica, Juniperus grandis, Pinus ponderosa, Pinus jeffreyi, and Tsuga mertensiana) in the Sierra Nevada is used to develop reconstructions of water-year precipitation using stepwise linear regression on lagged chronologies, and the reconstructions are analyzed for their ability to track whiplash events. A nonparametric approach is introduced to statistically classify positive and negative events, and the success of matching observed events with the reconstructions is evaluated using a hypergeometric test. Results suggest that reconstructions can effectively track whiplash events, but that tracking ability differs among species and sites. Although negative (dry-to-wet) events (1921–1989) are generally tracked more consistently than positive events, Tsuga stands out for strong tracking of positive events. Tracking ability shows no clear relationship to variance explained by reconstructions, suggesting that efforts to extend whiplash records with tree-ring data should consider optimizing reconstruction models for the whiplash signal. 

Water-use efficiency (WUE), weighing the balance between plant transpiration and growth, is a key characteristic of ecosystem functioning and a component of tree drought resistance. Seasonal dynamics of tree-level WUE and its connections with drought variability have not been previously explored in sky-island montane forests. We investigated whole-tree transpiration and stem growth of bristlecone ( Pinus longaeva ) and limber pine ( Pinus flexilis ) within a high-elevation stand in central-eastern Nevada, United States, using sub-hourly measurements over 5 years (2013–2017). A moderate drought was generally observed early in the growing season, whereas interannual variability of summer rains determined drought levels between years, i.e., reducing drought stress in 2013–2014 while enhancing it in 2015–2017. Transpiration and basal area increment (BAI) of both pines were coupled throughout June–July, resulting in a high but relatively constant early season WUE. In contrast, both pines showed high interannual plasticity in late-season WUE, with a predominant role of stem growth in driving WUE. Overall, bristlecone pine was characterized by a lower WUE compared to limber pine. Dry or wet episodes in the late growing season overrode species differences. Our results suggested thresholds of vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture that would lead to opposite responses of WUE to late-season dry or wet conditions. These findings provide novel insights and clarify potential mechanisms modulating tree-level WUE in sky-island ecosystems of semi-arid regions, thereby helping land managers to design appropriate science-based strategies and reduce uncertainties associated with the impact of future climatic changes. 

Information on wildfire impacts and ecosystem responses is relatively sparse in the Great Basin of North America, where subalpine ecosystems are generally dominated by five-needle pines. We analyzed existing vegetation, with an emphasis on regeneration following the year 2000 Phillips Ranch Fire, at a sky-island site in the Snake Range of eastern Nevada. Our main objective was to compare bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva; PILO) post-fire establishment and survival to that of the co-occurring dominant conifers limber pine (Pinus flexilis; PIFL) and Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii; PIEN) in connection with site characteristics. Field data were collected in 40 circular 0.1 ha plots (17.8 m radius) randomly located using GIS so that half of them were inside (“burned”) and half were outside (“unburned”) the 2000 fire boundary. While evidence of previous burns was also found, we focused on impacts from the Phillips Ranch Fire. Mean total basal area, including live and dead stems, was not significantly different between plots inside the burn and plots outside the fire perimeter, but the live basal area was significantly less in the former than in the latter. Wildfire impacts did not limit regeneration, and indeed bristlecone seedlings and saplings were more abundant in plots inside the 2000 fire perimeter than in those outside of it. PILO regeneration, especially saplings, was more abundant than PIFL and PCEN combined, indicating that PILO can competitively regenerate under modern climatic conditions. Surviving PILO regeneration in burned plots was also taller than that of PIFL. By contrast, PCEN was nearly absent in the plots that had been impacted by fire. Additional research should explicitly address how climatic changes and disturbance processes may interact in shaping future vegetation dynamics.