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Abstract Partitioned analysis enables numerical representation of complex systems through the coupling of smaller, simpler constituent models, each representing a different phenomenon, domain, scale, or functional component. Through this coupling, inputs and outputs of constituent models are exchanged in an iterative manner until a converged solution satisfies all constituents. In practical applications, numerical models may not be available for all constituents due to lack of understanding of the behavior of a constituent and the inability to conduct separateeffect experiments to investigate the behavior of the constituent in an isolated manner. In such cases, empirical representations of missing constituents have the opportunity to be inferred using integraleffect experiments, which capture the behavior of the system as a whole. Herein, we propose a Bayesian inferencebased approach to estimate missing constituent models from available integraleffect experiments. Significance of this novel approach is demonstrated through the inference of a material plasticity constituent integrated with a finite element model to enable efficient multiscale elastoplastic simulations.

All ten LIGO/Virgo binary black hole (BHBH) coalescences reported following the O1/O2 runs have nearzero effective spins. There are only three potential explanations for this. If the BH spin magnitudes are large, then: (i) either both BH spin vectors must be nearly in the orbital plane or (ii) the spin angular momenta of the BHs must be oppositely directed and similar in magnitude. Then there is also the possibility that (iii) the BH spin magnitudes are small. We consider the third hypothesis within the framework of the classical isolated binary evolution scenario of the BHBH merger formation. We test three models of angular momentum transport in massive stars: a mildly efficient transport by meridional currents (as employed in the Geneva code), an efficient transport by the TaylerSpruit magnetic dynamo (as implemented in the MESA code), and a veryefficient transport (as proposed by Fuller et al.) to calculate natal BH spins. We allow for binary evolution to increase the BH spins through accretion and account for the potential spinup of stars through tidal interactions. Additionally, we update the calculations of the stellarorigin BH masses, including revisions to the history of star formation and to the chemical evolution across cosmic time. Wemore »