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Abstract To gain deeper insights into radiation belt loss into the atmosphere, a statistical study of MeV electron precipitation during radiation belt dropout events is undertaken. During these events, electron intensities often drop by an order of magnitude or more within just a few hours. For this study, dropouts are defined as a decrease by at least a factor of five in less than 8 hours. Van Allen probe measurements are employed to identify dropouts across various parameters, complemented by precipitation data from the CALorimetric Electron Telescope instrument on the International Space Station. A temporal analysis unveils a notable increase in precipitation occurrence and intensity during dropout onset, correlating with the decline of SYM‐H, the north‐south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, and the peak of the solar wind dynamic pressure. Moreover, dropout occurrences show correlations with the solar cycle, exhibiting maxima at the spring and autumn equinoxes. This increase during equinoxes reflects the correlation between equinoxes and the SYM‐H index, which itself exhibits a correlation with precipitation during dropouts. Spatial analysis reveals that dropouts with precipitation penetrate into lower L‐star regions, mostly reaching L‐star <4, while most dropouts without precipitation don't penetrate deeper than L‐star 5. This is consistent with the larger average dimensions of dropouts associated with precipitation. During dropouts, precipitation is predominantly observed in the dusk‐midnight sector, coinciding with the most intense precipitation events. The results of this study provide insight into the contribution of precipitation to radiation belt dropouts by deciphering when and where precipitation occurred. 

Abstract Solar energetic particles (SEPs) can pose hazardous radiation risks to both humans and spacecraft electronics in space. Numerical modeling based on first principles offers valuable insights into the underlying physics of SEPs and provides synthetic observables for SEPs at any time and location in the inner heliosphere. In this work, we present a numerical scheme, which conserves the number of particles based on integral relations for Poisson brackets, to solve the kinetic equation for particle acceleration and transport processes. We implement this scheme within the Space Weather Modeling Framework, developed at the University of Michigan. In addition, we develop a new shock-capturing tool to study the coronal mass ejection-driven shock originating from the low solar corona. These methodological advancements are applied to conduct a comprehensive study of a historical SEP event on 2013 April 11. Observations from multiple spacecraft, including the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, Solar Dynamics Observatory, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, Advanced Composition Explorer near Earth, and STEREO-A/B, are used for model–data comparison and validation. We show synthetic observables, including extreme ultraviolet and white-light images, proton time–intensity profiles, and energy spectra, and discuss their differences and probable explanations compared to observations. Our simulation results demonstrate the application of the Poisson bracket scheme with a particle solver to simulating a historical SEP event. We also show the capability of extracting the complex shock surface using our shock-capturing tool and understand how the complex shock surface affects the particle acceleration process. 

Abstract To better understand rapid radiation belt losses, this statistical study examines dropouts, defined as a phase‐space density (PSD) decrease by a factor of within 8 hr. The relationship between dropouts, storm parameters, solar‐wind drivers, geomagnetic indices, and MeV electron precipitation is analyzed. Four years of data from the Van Allen Probes, measuring electron density, the CALorimetric Electron Telescope on the International Space Station, measuring MeV electron precipitation, and solar‐wind/magnetic indices from the OMNI dataset are utilized. Our investigation reveals that electron loss in PSD increases with disturbance intensity. However, about one‐third of dropouts occur during small geomagnetic disturbance periods, some involving precipitation, while approximately 40% of storms do not lead to dropouts. Superposed epoch analysis identifies solar‐wind density and dynamic pressure as the main dropout drivers, while precipitation becomes more likely with higher trapped electron flux and stronger substorms. Dropouts do not require a negative southward magnetic field component. 

This white paper is on the HMCS Firefly mission concept study. Firefly focuses on the global structure and dynamics of the Sun's interior, the generation of solar magnetic fields, the deciphering of the solar cycle, the conditions leading to the explosive activity, and the structure and dynamics of the corona as it drives the heliosphere.