Using 5‐year of measurements from Van Allen Probes, we present a survey of the statistical dependence of the Earth's outer radiation belt electron flux dropouts during geomagnetic storms on electron energy and various driving parameters including interplanetary magnetic field Bz, PSW, SYM‐H, and AE. By systematically investigating the dropouts over energies of 1 keV–10 MeV at L‐shells spanning 4.0–6.5, we find that the dropouts are naturally divided into three regions. The dropouts show much higher occurrence rates at energies below ∼100 keV and above ∼1 MeV compared to much smaller occurrence rate at intermediate energies around hundreds of keV. The flux decays more dramatically at energies above ∼1 MeV compared to the energies below ∼100 keV. The flux dropouts of electrons below ∼100 keV strongly depend on magnetic local time (MLT), which demonstrate high occurrence rates on the nightside (18–06 MLT), with the highest occurrence rate associated with northward Bz, strong PSWand SYM‐H, and weak AE conditions. The strongest flux decay of these dropouts is found on the nightside, which strongly depends on PSWand SYM‐H. However, there is no clear MLT dependence of the occurrence rate of relativistic electron flux dropouts above ∼1 MeV, but the flux decay of these dropouts is more significant on the dayside, with stronger decay associated with southward IMF Bz, strong PSW, SYM‐H, and AE conditions. Our statistical results are crucial for understanding of the fundamental physical mechanisms that control the outer belt electron dynamics and developing future potential radiation belt forecasting capability.
To gain deeper insights into radiation belt loss into the atmosphere, a statistical study of MeV electron precipitation during radiation belt dropout events is undertaken. During these events, electron intensities often drop by an order of magnitude or more within just a few hours. For this study, dropouts are defined as a decrease by at least a factor of five in less than 8 hours. Van Allen probe measurements are employed to identify dropouts across various parameters, complemented by precipitation data from the CALorimetric Electron Telescope instrument on the International Space Station. A temporal analysis unveils a notable increase in precipitation occurrence and intensity during dropout onset, correlating with the decline of SYM‐H, the north‐south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, and the peak of the solar wind dynamic pressure. Moreover, dropout occurrences show correlations with the solar cycle, exhibiting maxima at the spring and autumn equinoxes. This increase during equinoxes reflects the correlation between equinoxes and the SYM‐H index, which itself exhibits a correlation with precipitation during dropouts. Spatial analysis reveals that dropouts with precipitation penetrate into lower L‐star regions, mostly reaching L‐star <4, while most dropouts without precipitation don't penetrate deeper than L‐star 5. This is consistent with the larger average dimensions of dropouts associated with precipitation. During dropouts, precipitation is predominantly observed in the dusk‐midnight sector, coinciding with the most intense precipitation events. The results of this study provide insight into the contribution of precipitation to radiation belt dropouts by deciphering when and where precipitation occurred.
more » « less- PAR ID:
- 10536625
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
- Volume:
- 129
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 2169-9380
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
more » « less
Abstract Understanding and forecasting outer radiation belt electron flux dropouts is one of the top concerns in space physics. By constructing Support Vector Machine (SVM) models to predict storm‐time dropouts for both relativistic and ultra‐relativistic electrons over
L = 4.0–6.0, we investigate the nonlinear correlations between various driving factors (model inputs) and dropouts (model output) and rank their relative importance. Only time series of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters are adopted as model inputs. A comparison of the performance of the SVM models that uses only one driving factor at a time enables us to identify the most informative parameter and its optimal length of time history. Its accuracy and the ability to correctly predict dropouts identifies the SYM‐H index as the governing factor atL = 4.0–4.5, while solar wind parameters dominate the dropouts at higher L‐shells (L = 6.0). Our SVM model also gives good prediction of dropouts during completely out‐of‐sample storms. -
This paper presents observations of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves from multiple data sources during the four Geospace Environment Modeling challenge events in 2013 selected by the Geospace Environment Modeling Quantitative Assessment of Radiation Belt Modeling focus group: 17 and 18 March (stormtime enhancement), 31 May to 2 June (stormtime dropout), 19 and 20 September (nonstorm enhancement), and 23–25 September (nonstorm dropout). Observations include EMIC wave data from the Van Allen Probes, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, and Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms spacecraft in the near-equatorial magnetosphere and from several arrays of ground-based search coil magnetometers worldwide, as well as localized ring current proton precipitation data from low-altitude Polar Operational Environmental Satellite spacecraft. Each of these data sets provides only limited spatial coverage, but their combination shows consistent occurrence patterns and reveals some events that would not be identified as significant using near-equatorial spacecraft alone. Relativistic and ultrarelativistic electron flux observations, phase space density data, and pitch angle distributions based on data from the Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope and Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer instruments on the Van Allen Probes during these events show two cases during which EMIC waves are likely to have played an important role in causing major flux dropouts of ultrarelativistic electrons, particularly near L* ~4.0. In three other cases, identifiable smaller and more short-lived dropouts appeared, and in five other cases, these waves evidently had little or no effect.more » « less
-
more » « less
Abstract We investigate the response of outer radiation belt electron fluxes to different solar wind and geomagnetic indices using an interpretable machine learning method. We reconstruct the electron flux variation during 19 enhancement and 7 depletion events and demonstrate the feature attribution analysis called SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) on the superposed epoch results for the first time. We find that the intensity and duration of the substorm sequence following an initial dropout determine the overall enhancement or depletion of electron fluxes, while the solar wind pressure drives the initial dropout in both types of events. Further statistical results from a data set with 71 events confirm this and show a significant correlation between the resulting flux levels and the average AL index, indicating that the observed “depletion” event can be more accurately described as a “non‐enhancement” event. Our novel SHAP‐Enhanced Superposed Epoch Analysis (SHESEA) method can offer insight in various physical systems.
-
Energetic Electron Flux Dropouts Measured by ELFIN in the Ionospheric Projection of the Plasma Sheetmore » « less
Abstract Low‐altitude observations of magnetospheric particles provide a unique opportunity for remote probing of the magnetospheric and plasma states during active times. We present the first statistical analysis of a specific pattern in such observations, energetic electron flux dropouts in the low‐altitude projection of the plasma sheet. Using 3.5 years of data from the ELFIN CubeSats we report the occurrence distribution of 145 energetic electron flux dropout events and identify characteristics, including their prevalence in the dusk and premidnight sectors, their association with substorms and enhanced auroral activities, and their correlation with the region‐1 (R1) field‐aligned current region. We also investigate three representative dropout events which benefit from satellite conjunctions between ELFIN, GOES, and THEMIS, to better understand the magnetospheric drivers and magnetic field conditions that lead to such dropouts as viewed by ELFIN. One class of dropouts may be associated with magnetic field mapping distortions due to local enhancements and thinning of cross‐tail current sheets and amplification of R1 field‐aligned currents. The other class may be associated with the increase in perpendicular anisotropy of magnetospheric electrons due to magnetic field dipolarizations near premidnight. These plasma sheet flux dropouts at ELFIN provide a valuable tool for refining magnetospheric models, thereby improving the accuracy of field‐line mapping during substorms.
