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Free, publicly-accessible full text available August 1, 2026
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Delta blue intensity is a commonly used method to correct for the heartwood-sapwood color change in blue intensity (BI) measurements. It is based on the assumption that the heartwood-sapwood color change is similar in both earlywood and latewood. This assumption has not been supported physiologically. Furthermore, delta BI may confound the climate signals in earlywood and latewood BI as it is technically a linear combination of the other two. Here, instead of using delta BI, we used change point detection to identify the heartwood-sapwood transition, and corrected for the color change by rescaling the mean and variance of BI measurements after the transition to those immediately before. We tested three different change point detection methods and found that they agreed well with one another. Importantly, our approach preserves the climate signals in both earlywood and latewood BI data, while delta BI causes a total loss of climate signals in our test case. Therefore, we suggest that change point detection should be used instead of delta BI to account for the heartwood-sapwood color change.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available April 4, 2026
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Abstract Dendrochronology in West Africa has not yet been developed despite encouraging reports suggesting the potential for long tree-ring reconstructions of hydroclimate in the tropics. This paper shows that even in the absence of local tree chronologies, it is possible to reconstruct the hydroclimate of a region using remote tree rings. We present the West Sub-Saharan Drought Atlas (WSDA), a new paleoclimatic reconstruction of West African hydroclimate based on tree-ring chronologies from the Mediterranean Region, made possible by the teleconnected climate relationship between the West African Monsoon and Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures. The WSDA is a one-half degree gridded reconstruction of summer Palmer Drought Severity indices from 1500 to 2018 CE, produced using ensemble point-by-point regression. Calibration and verification statistics of the WSDA indicate that it has significant skill over most of its domain. The three leading modes of hydroclimate variability in West Africa are accurately reproduced by the WSDA, demonstrating strong skill compared to regional instrumental precipitation and drought indices. The WSDA can be used to study the hydroclimate of West Africa outside the limit of the longest observed record and for integration and comparison with other proxy and archaeological data. It is also an essential first step toward developing and using local tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct West Africa’s hydroclimate.more » « less
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null (Ed.)We present the first Greenlandic tree ring oxygen isotope record (δ18OGTR), derived from four birch trees collected from the Qinguadalen Valley in southwestern Greenland in 1999. Our δ18O record spans from 1950–1999 and is significantly and positively correlated with winter ice core δ18O from southern Greenland. δ18OGTR records are positively correlated with southwestern Greenland January–August mean temperatures. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reconstructions have been developed from a variety of proxies, but never with Greenlandic tree rings, and our δ18OGTR record is significantly correlated with NAO (r = −0.64), and spatial correlations with sea-level pressure indicate a classic NAO pressure seesaw pattern. These results may facilitate a longer NAO reconstruction based on long time series of tree ring δ18O records from Greenland, provided that subfossil wood can be found in areas vacated by melting glaciers.more » « less
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Abstract Much is still unknown about the growth and physiological responses of trees to global change at the northern treeline. We combined tree‐ring width data with century‐long stable carbon and oxygen isotope records to investigate growth and physiological responses of white spruce at two treeline sites in the Canadian Arctic to concurrent increases in temperature, atmospheric CO2concentration (ca), and decline in sea ice extent over the past century. The tree‐ring records were assessed during three periods with contrasting climatic conditions: (a) the early 20th century warming, (b) the 1940–1970 cooling period, and (c) the anthropogenic late 20th century warming period. We found opposing growth trends between the two sites, but similar carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) and intrinsic water‐use efficiency (iWUE) trajectories. While tree growth (defined as basal area increment) increased at the site nearer to the Arctic Ocean during the 20th century following the rise in temperature and sea ice loss, growth declined after 1950 at the more interior site. At both sites, Δ13C slightly increased over these periods. However, trees showed a nonlinear response to increasedca, shifting after 1970 from a passive stomatal response (i.e., no changes iniWUE) to an active response (i.e., a moderate ∼12% increase iniWUE). Further, our isotope‐based findings do not support the idea that temperature‐induced drought stress caused the divergent growth trends at our treeline sites. This study thus highlights nonlinear and complex physiological and growth adjustments to concomitant changes in temperature, sea ice extent, andcaover the last century at the northern treeline.more » « less
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Free, publicly-accessible full text available May 1, 2026
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Increasing drought pressure under anthropogenic climate change may jeopardize the potential of tropical forests to capture carbon in woody biomass and act as a long-term carbon dioxide sink. To evaluate this risk, we assessed drought impacts in 483 tree-ring chronologies from across the tropics and found an overall modest stem growth decline (2.5% with a 95% confidence interval of 2.2 to 2.7%) during the 10% driest years since 1930. Stem growth declines exceeded 10% in 25% of cases and were larger at hotter and drier sites and for gymnosperms compared with angiosperms. Growth declines generally did not outlast drought years and were partially mitigated by growth stimulation in wet years. Thus, pantropical forest carbon sequestration through stem growth has hitherto shown drought resilience that may, however, diminish under future climate change.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available July 31, 2026
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Abstract Despite having offered important hydroclimatic insights, streamflow reconstructions still see limited use in water resources operations, because annual reconstructions are not suitable for decisions at finer time scales. The few attempts toward sub‐annual reconstructions have relied on statistical disaggregation, which uses none or little proxy information. Here, we develop a novel framework that optimizes proxy combinations to simultaneously produce seasonal and annual reconstructions. Importantly, the framework ensures that total seasonal flow matches annual flow closely. This mass balance criterion is necessary to avoid misguiding water management decisions, such as the allocation of water rights or dam release decisions. Using the framework, and leveraging a multi‐species network of ring width and celluloseO in Southeast Asia, we reconstruct seasonal and annual inflow to Thailand's largest reservoir. The reconstructions are statistically skillful. Furthermore, they preserve the mass balance well: the differences are mostly within 10% of the mean annual flow. As a result, the reconstructions provide more reliable estimates of the seasonal and annual surface water availability. This work is one step closer toward operational usability of streamflow reconstruction in water resources management.more » « less
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