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Abstract Astrophysically motivated population models for binary black hole (BBH) observables are often insufficient to capture the imprints of multiple formation channels. This is mainly due to the strongly parametrized nature of such investigations. Using a nonparametric model for the joint population-level distributions of BBH component masses and effective inspiral spins, we find hints of multiple subpopulations in the third gravitational-wave transient catalog. The higher (more positive) spin subpopulation is found to have a mass spectrum without any feature at in the 30–40M_⊙range, which is consistent with the predictions of isolated stellar binary evolution, simulations for which place the pileup due to pulsational pair-instability supernovae near 50M_⊙or higher. The other subpopulation with effective spins closer to zero shows a feature at 30–40M_⊙and is consistent with BBHs formed dynamically in globular clusters, which are expected to peak around 30M_⊙. We also compute merger rates for these two subpopulations and find that they are consistent with the theoretical predictions of the corresponding formation channels. We validate our results by checking their robustness against variations of several model configurations and by analyzing large simulated catalogs with the same model. 

Abstract The observation of gravitational waves from multiple compact binary coalescences by the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA detector networks has enabled us to infer the underlying distribution of compact binaries across a wide range of masses, spins, and redshifts. In light of the new features found in the mass spectrum of binary black holes and the uncertainty regarding binary formation models, nonparametric population inference has become increasingly popular. In this work, we develop a data-driven clustering framework that can identify features in the component mass distribution of compact binaries simultaneously with those in the corresponding redshift distribution, from gravitational-wave data in the presence of significant measurement uncertainties, while making very few assumptions about the functional form of these distributions. Our generalized model is capable of inferring correlations among various population properties, such as the redshift evolution of the shape of the mass distribution itself, in contrast to most existing nonparametric inference schemes. We test our model on simulated data and demonstrate the accuracy with which it can reconstruct the underlying distributions of component masses and redshifts. We also reanalyze public LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA data from events in GWTC-3 using our model and compare our results with those from some alternative parametric and nonparametric population inference approaches. Finally, we investigate the potential presence of correlations between mass and redshift in the population of binary black holes in GWTC-3 (those observed by the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA detector network in their first three observing runs), without making any assumptions about the specific nature of these correlations. 

ABSTRACT Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are searching for gravitational waves from supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs). Here we show how future PTAs could use a detection of gravitational waves from individually resolved SMBHB sources to produce a purely gravitational wave-based measurement of the Hubble constant. This is achieved by measuring two separate distances to the same source from the gravitational wave signal in the timing residual: the luminosity distance DL through frequency evolution effects, and the parallax distance Dpar through wavefront curvature (Fresnel) effects. We present a generalized timing residual model including these effects in an expanding universe. Of these two distances, Dpar is challenging to measure due to the pulsar distance wrapping problem, a degeneracy in the Earth-pulsar distance and gravitational wave source parameters that requires highly precise, sub-parsec level, pulsar distance measurements to overcome. However, in this paper we demonstrate that combining the knowledge of two SMBHB sources in the timing residual largely removes the wrapping cycle degeneracy. Two sources simultaneously calibrate the PTA by identifying the distances to the pulsars, which is useful in its own right, and allow recovery of the source luminosity and parallax distances which results in a measurement of the Hubble constant. We find that, with optimistic PTAs in the era of the Square Kilometre Array, two fortuitous SMBHB sources within a few hundred Mpc could be used to measure the Hubble constant with a relative uncertainty on the order of 10 per cent. 

ABSTRACT Merging supermassive black hole binaries produce low-frequency gravitational waves, which pulsar timing experiments are searching for. Much of the current theory is developed within the plane-wave formalism, and here we develop the more general Fresnel formalism. We show that Fresnel corrections to gravitational wave timing residual models allow novel measurements to be made, such as direct measurements of the source distance from the timing residual phase and frequency, as well as direct measurements of chirp mass from a monochromatic source. Probing the Fresnel corrections in these models will require future pulsar timing arrays with more distant pulsars across our Galaxy (ideally at the distance of the Magellanic Clouds), timed with precisions less than 100 ns, with distance uncertainties reduced to the order of the gravitational wavelength. We find that sources with chirp mass of order 109 M⊙ and orbital frequency ω0 > 10 nHz are good candidates for probing Fresnel corrections. With these conditions met, the measured source distance uncertainty can be made less than 10 per cent of the distance to the source for sources out to ∼100 Mpc, source sky localization can be reduced to sub-arcminute precision, and source volume localization can be made to less than 1 Mpc3 for sources out to 1-Gpc distances. 

Multimessenger searches for binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star-black hole (NSBH) mergers are currently one of the most exciting areas of astronomy. The search for joint electromagnetic and neutrino counterparts to gravitational wave (GW)s has resumed with ALIGO’s, AdVirgo’s and KAGRA’s fourth observing run (O4). To support this effort, public semiautomated data products are sent in near real-time and include localization and source properties to guide complementary observations. In preparation for O4, we have conducted a study using a simulated population of compact binaries and a mock data challenge (MDC) in the form of a real-time replay to optimize and profile the software infrastructure and scientific deliverables. End-toend performance was tested, including data ingestion, running online search pipelines, performing annotations, and issuing alerts to the astrophysics community. We present an overview of the low-latency infrastructure and the performance of the data products that are now being released during O4 based on the MDC. We report the expected median latency for the preliminary alert of full bandwidth searches (29.5 s) and show consistency and accuracy of released data products using the MDC. We report the expected median latency for triggers from early warning searches (−3.1 s), which are new in O4 and target neutron star mergers during inspiral phase. This paper provides a performance overview for LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) low-latency alert infrastructure and data products using theMDCand serves as a useful reference for the interpretation of O4 detections.