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Abstract Rapid Arctic warming this century will likely cause major water cycle and atmospheric circulation changes, including weakening mid‐latitude westerly winds and more persistent summer high pressures over Fennoscandia. These conditions can cause drought in northern Europe and extreme rainfall in the Mediterranean region. Uncertainties in the spatiotemporal patterns of these predictions can be partially addressed with records of past climate response to rapid change. The early Holocene collapse of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets provides a natural experiment to evaluate the climate response to rapid changes in boundary conditions. We analyzed lipid biomarker distributions and hydrogen isotope (δ²H) values from Lake Imandra, Kola Peninsula, to infer Holocene summer temperature and summer precipitation δ²H values. Sensitivity tests of a lake model suggest summer precipitation δ²H values are the main mechanism influencing Lake Imandra δ²H values. Summer precipitation isotope values exhibited a nearly 20‰²H‐depletion between 8.6 and 8.0 ka, with²H ‐enriched values before 8.6 ka and²H ‐depleted values 8.0 ka to present. Maximum warmth occurred from 8.5 to 7.0 ka. Climate model experiments suggest that the early Holocene Laurentide Ice Sheet collapse caused a westward shift of the Fennoscandian summer high‐pressure center. This caused a decrease in the proportion of local,²H‐enriched precipitation falling throughout Fennoscandia and an increase in far‐traveled,²H‐depleted precipitation from the mid‐latitudes, circulation that persisted throughout the Holocene. These results illustrate the sensitivity of climate in Fennoscandia and show that circulation regime shifts can occur in response to changes in boundary conditions far upwind. 

Abstract. Paleoclimatic records provide valuable information about Holocene climate, revealing aspects of climate variability for a multitude of sites around the world. However, such data also possess limitations. Proxy networks are spatially uneven, seasonally biased, uncertain in time, and present a variety of challenges when used in concert to illustrate the complex variations of past climate. Paleoclimatic data assimilation provides one approach to reconstructing past climate that can account for the diversenature of proxy records while maintaining the physics-based covariancestructures simulated by climate models. Here, we use paleoclimate dataassimilation to create a spatially complete reconstruction of temperatureover the past 12 000 years using proxy data from the Temperature 12k database and output from transient climate model simulations. Following the last glacial period, the reconstruction shows Holocene temperatures warming to a peak near 6400 years ago followed by a slow cooling toward the present day, supporting a mid-Holocene which is at least as warm as the preindustrial. Sensitivity tests show that if proxies have an overlooked summer bias, some apparent mid-Holocene warmth could actually represent summer trends rather than annual mean trends. Regardless, the potential effects of proxy seasonal biases are insufficient to align the reconstructed global mean temperature with the warming trends seen in transient model simulations. 

Abstract The North American monsoon (NAM) is an important source of rainfall to much of Mexico and southwestern United States. Westerly winds (westerlies) can suppress monsoon circulation and impact monsoon timing, intensity, and extent. Recent Arctic warming is reducing the temperature gradient between the equator and the pole, which could weaken the westerlies; however, the implications of these changes on the NAM are uncertain. Here we present a new composite index of the Holocene NAM. We find monsoon strength reached a maximum circa 7,000 years ago and has weakened since then. Proxy observations of temperature, hydroclimate and upwelling, along with model simulations, show that the NAM was modulated by the westerlies over the Holocene. If the observed Holocene pattern holds for current warming, a weaker meridional temperature gradient and weaker westerlies could lead to a stronger future NAM. 

Abstract An extensive new multi-proxy database of paleo-temperature time series (Temperature 12k) enables a more robust analysis of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and associated uncertainties than was previously available. We applied five different statistical methods to reconstruct the GMST of the past 12,000 years (Holocene). Each method used different approaches to averaging the globally distributed time series and to characterizing various sources of uncertainty, including proxy temperature, chronology and methodological choices. The results were aggregated to generate a multi-method ensemble of plausible GMST and latitudinal-zone temperature reconstructions with a realistic range of uncertainties. The warmest 200-year-long interval took place around 6500 years ago when GMST was 0.7 °C (0.3, 1.8) warmer than the 19^thCentury (median, 5^th, 95^thpercentiles). Following the Holocene global thermal maximum, GMST cooled at an average rate −0.08 °C per 1000 years (−0.24, −0.05). The multi-method ensembles and the code used to generate them highlight the utility of the Temperature 12k database, and they are now available for future use by studies aimed at understanding Holocene evolution of the Earth system. 

Abstract Substantial changes in terrestrial hydroclimate during the Holocene are recorded in geological archives and simulated by computer models. To identify spatial and temporal patterns during the past 12 ka, proxy records sensitive to changing precipitation and effective moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) were compiled from across the globe (n = 813). Proxy composite timeseries were computed for 30 of the IPCC AR6 regions and compared to two full‐Holocene transient model simulations (TraCE‐21ka and HadCM3) and twelve mid‐Holocene CMIP6 simulations. We find that throughout Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions, proxy and model simulations indicate wetter‐than‐modern conditions during the early and mid‐Holocene while Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions were drier. This insolation driven trend toward modern values began approximately 6,000 years ago, and the clear agreement among proxy records and models may reflect the large magnitude of precipitation change and consistent atmospheric circulation forcing mechanism for these regions. In the midlatitudes, the pattern of change is less certain. Generally, proxy composites show a wetting trend throughout the Holocene for the northern midlatitudes, possibly due to strengthening westerlies from an increasing latitudinal temperature gradient. However, simulations indicate that the magnitude of change was relatively low, and for portions of North America, there is a proxy‐model disagreement. At high latitudes, hydroclimate is positively correlated with temperature in both proxies and models, consistent with projected wetting as temperatures rise. Overall, this large proxy database reveals a coherent pattern of hydroclimate variability despite the challenges associated with reconstructing hydroclimate fields. 

Abstract. The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) utilizes an ensemble methodology to assimilate paleoclimate data for the production of annually resolved climate field reconstructions of the Common Era. Two key elements are the focus of this work: the set of assimilated proxy records and the forward models that map climate variables to proxy measurements. Results based on an updated proxy database and seasonal regression-based forward models are compared to the LMR prototype, which was based on a smaller set of proxy records and simpler proxy models formulated as univariate linear regressions against annual temperature. Validation against various instrumental-era gridded analyses shows that the new reconstructions of surface air temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height are significantly improved (from 10 % to more than 100 %), while improvements in reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index are more modest. Additional experiments designed to isolate the sources of improvement reveal the importance of the updated proxy records, including coral records for improving tropical reconstructions, and tree-ring density records for temperature reconstructions, particularly in high northern latitudes. Proxy forward models that account for seasonal responses, and dependence on both temperature and moisture for tree-ring width, also contribute to improvements in reconstructed thermodynamic and hydroclimate variables in midlatitudes. The variability of temperature at multidecadal to centennial scales is also shown to be sensitive to the set of assimilated proxies, especially to the inclusion of primarily moisture-sensitive tree-ring-width records. 

Abstract. Holocene climate reconstructions are useful for understanding the diversefeatures and spatial heterogeneity of past and future climate change. Herewe present a database of western North American Holocene paleoclimaterecords. The database gathers paleoclimate time series from 184 terrestrialand marine sites, including 381 individual proxy records. The records spanat least 4000 of the last 12 000 years (median duration of 10 725 years)and have been screened for resolution, chronologic control, and climatesensitivity. Records were included that reflect temperature, hydroclimate,or circulation features. The database is shared in the machine readableLinked Paleo Data (LiPD) format and includes geochronologic data forgenerating site-level time-uncertain ensembles. This publicly accessible andcurated collection of proxy paleoclimate records will have wide researchapplications, including, for example, investigations of the primary featuresof ocean–atmospheric circulation along the eastern margin of the NorthPacific and the latitudinal response of climate to orbital changes. Thedatabase is available for download at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12863843.v1 (Routson and McKay, 2020).