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Abstract Tundra plants are widely considered to be constrained by cool growing conditions and short growing seasons. Furthermore, phenological development is generally predicted by daily heat sums calculated as growing degree days. Analyzing over a decade of seasonal flower counts of 23 plant species distributed across four plant communities, together with hourly canopy-temperature records, we show that the timing of flowering of many tundra plants are best predicted by a modified growing degree day model with a maximum temperature threshold. Threshold maximums are commonly employed in agriculture, but until recently have not been considered for natural ecosystems and to our knowledge have not been used for tundra plants. Estimated maximum temperature thresholds were found to be within the range of daily temperatures commonly experienced for many species, particularly for plants at the colder, high Arctic study site. These findings provide an explanation for why passive experimental warming—where moderate changes in mean daily temperatures are accompanied by larger changes in daily maximum temperatures—generally shifts plant phenology less than ambient warming. Our results also suggest that many plants adapted to extreme cold environments may have limits to their thermal responsiveness. 

Arctic biodiversity is under threat from both climate-induced environmental change and anthropogenic activity. However, the rapid rate of change and the challenging conditions for studying Arctic environments mean that many research questions must be answered before we can strategically allocate resources for management. Addressing threats to biodiversity in the Arctic is further complicated by the region's complex geopolitics, as eight countries claim jurisdiction over the area, with multiple local considerations such as Indigenous sovereignty and resource rights. Here, we identify research priorities to serve as a starting point for addressing the most pressing threats to Arctic biodiversity. We began by collecting pressing research questions about Arctic biodiversity, thematizing them as either threats or actions, and then categorizing them further into 18 groups. Then, drawing on cross-disciplinary and global expertise of professionals in Arctic science, management, and policy, we considered the barriers to answering these questions and proposed potential solutions that could be implemented if barriers were overcome. Overall, our horizon scan provides an expert assessment of threats (e.g., species’ responses to climate change) and actions (e.g., a lack of fundamental information regarding Arctic biodiversity) needing attention and is intended to guide future conservation action within the Arctic. 

Summary Plant phenology, the timing of recurrent biological events, shows key and complex response to climate warming, with consequences for ecosystem functions and services. A key challenge for predicting plant phenology under future climates is to determine whether the phenological changes will persist with more intensive and long‐term warming.Here, we conducted a meta‐analysis of 103 experimental warming studies around the globe to investigate the responses of four phenophases – leaf‐out, first flowering, last flowering, and leaf coloring.We showed that warming advanced leaf‐out and flowering but delayed leaf coloring across herbaceous and woody plants. As the magnitude of warming increased, the response of most plant phenophases gradually leveled off for herbaceous plants, while phenology responded in proportion to warming in woody plants. We also found that the experimental effects of warming on plant phenology diminished over time across all phenophases. Specifically, the rate of changes in first flowering for herbaceous species, as well as leaf‐out and leaf coloring for woody species, decreased as the experimental duration extended.Together, these results suggest that the real‐world impact of global warming on plant phenology will diminish over time as temperatures continue to increase. 

Abstract The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average¹and plant communities are responding through shifts in species abundance, composition and distribution^2–4. However, the direction and magnitude of local changes in plant diversity in the Arctic have not been quantified. Using a compilation of 42,234 records of 490 vascular plant species from 2,174 plots across the Arctic, here we quantified temporal changes in species richness and composition through repeat surveys between 1981 and 2022. We also identified the geographical, climatic and biotic drivers behind these changes. We found greater species richness at lower latitudes and warmer sites, but no indication that, on average, species richness had changed directionally over time. However, species turnover was widespread, with 59% of plots gaining and/or losing species. Proportions of species gains and losses were greater where temperatures had increased the most. Shrub expansion, particularly of erect shrubs, was associated with greater species losses and decreasing species richness. Despite changes in plant composition, Arctic plant communities did not become more similar to each other, suggesting no biotic homogenization so far. Overall, Arctic plant communities changed in richness and composition in different directions, with temperature and plant–plant interactions emerging as the main drivers of change. Our findings demonstrate how climate and biotic drivers can act in concert to alter plant composition, which could precede future biodiversity changes that are likely to affect ecosystem function, wildlife habitats and the livelihoods of Arctic peoples^5,6. 

Plot-level photography is an attractive time-saving alternative to field measurements for vegetation monitoring. However, widespread adoption of this technique relies on efficient workflows for post-processing images and the accuracy of the resulting products. Here, we estimated relative vegetation cover using both traditional field sampling methods (point frame) and semi-automated classification of photographs (plot-level photography) across thirty 1 m2 plots near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, from 2012 to 2021. Geographic object-based image analysis (GEOBIA) was applied to generate objects based on the three spectral bands (red, green, and blue) of the images. Five machine learning algorithms were then applied to classify the objects into vegetation groups, and random forest performed best (60.5% overall accuracy). Objects were reliably classified into the following classes: bryophytes, forbs, graminoids, litter, shadows, and standing dead. Deciduous shrubs and lichens were not reliably classified. Multinomial regression models were used to gauge if the cover estimates from plot-level photography could accurately predict the cover estimates from the point frame across space or time. Plot-level photography yielded useful estimates of vegetation cover for graminoids. However, the predictive performance varied both by vegetation class and whether it was being used to predict cover in new locations or change over time in previously sampled plots. These results suggest that plot-level photography may maximize the efficient use of time, funding, and available technology to monitor vegetation cover in the Arctic, but the accuracy of current semi-automated image analysis is not sufficient to detect small changes in cover. 

Increases in shrub growth and canopy cover are well documented community responses to climate warming in the Arctic. An important consequence of larger deciduous shrubs is shading of prostrate plant species, many of which are important sources of nectar and berries. Here, we present the impact of a shading experiment on two prostrate shrubs, Vaccinium vitis-idaea L. and Arctous alpina L., in northern Alaska over two growing seasons. We implemented three levels of shading (no shade, 40% shade, and 80% shade) in dry heath and moist acidic tundra. Plots were monitored for soil moisture content, surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and flowering. Shading was shown to, on average, lower surface temperature (0.7 °C to 5.3 °C) and increase soil moisture content (0.5% to 5.6%) in both communities. Both species- and plot-level NDVI values were delayed in timing of peak values (7 to 13 days) and decreased at the highest shading. Flower abundance of both species was lower in shaded plots and peak flowering was delayed (3 to 8 days) compared with controls. Changes in timing may result in phenological mismatches and can impact other trophic levels in the Arctic as both the flowers and resulting berries are important food sources for animals. 

The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe. Graminoid, deciduous shrub, and evergreen shrub cover has increased in some regions, but not others. To better understand why plant responses vary across regions, we compared change in plant cover over time with nine functional traits of 12 dominant species in three regions of northern Alaska (Utqiaġvik, Atqasuk, and Toolik Lake). Cover was measured three times from 2008 to 2018. Repeated-measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) found that one species — Carex aquatilis — showed significant change in cover over time, increasing by 12.7% at Atqasuk. Canonical correspondence analysis suggested a relationship between shifts in species cover and traits, but Pearson and Spearman rank correlations did not find a significant trend for any trait when analyzed individually. Investigation of community-weighted means (CWMs) for each trait revealed no significant changes over time for any trait in any region. By comparison, estimated ecosystem values for several traits important to ecosystem functioning showed consistent increases over time in two regions (Utqiaġvik and Atqasuk). Our results indicate that vascular plant community composition and function have remained consistent over time; however, documented increases in total plant cover have important implications for ecosystem functioning. 

Vegetation change of the Arctic tundra due to global warming is a well-known process, but the implication for the belowground microbial communities, key in nutrient cycling and decomposition, is poorly understood. We characterized the fungal and bacterial abundances in litter and soil layers across 16 warming experimental sites at 12 circumpolar locations. We investigated the relationship between microbial abundances and nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) isotopic signatures, indicating shifts in microbial processes with warming. Microbial abundances were 2–3 orders of magnitude larger in litter than in soil. Local, site-dependent responses of microbial abundances were variable, and no general effect of warming was detected. The only generalizable trend across sites was a dependence between the warming response ratios and C:N ratio in controls, highlighting a legacy of the vegetation on the microbial response to warming. We detected a positive effect of warming on the litter mass and δ 15 N, which was linked to bacterial abundance under warmed conditions. This effect was stronger in experimental sites dominated by deciduous shrubs, suggesting an altered bacterial N-cycling with increased temperatures, mediated by the vegetation, and with possible consequences on ecosystem feedbacks to climate change.