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ABSTRACT We present an earthquake simulator, Quake-DFN, which allows simulating sequences of earthquakes in a 3D discrete fault network governed by rate and state friction. The simulator is quasi-dynamic, with inertial effects being approximated by radiation damping and a lumped mass. The lumped mass term allows for accounting for inertial overshoot and, in addition, makes the computation more effective. Quake-DFN is compared against three publicly available simulation results: (1) the rupture of a planar fault with uniform prestress (SEAS BP5-QD), (2) the propagation of a rupture across a stepover separating two parallel planar faults (RSQSim and FaultMod), and (3) a branch fault system with a secondary fault splaying from a main fault (FaultMod). Examples of injection-induced earthquake simulations are shown for three different fault geometries: (1) a planar fault with a wide range of initial stresses, (2) a branching fault system with varying fault angles and principal stress orientations, and (3) a fault network similar to the one that was activated during the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma, earthquake sequence. The simulations produce realistic earthquake sequences. The time and magnitude of the induced earthquakes observed in these simulations depend on the difference between the initial friction and the residual friction μi−μf, the value of which quantifies the potential for runaway ruptures (ruptures that can extend beyond the zone of stress perturbation due to the injection). The discrete fault simulations show that our simulator correctly accounts for the effect of fault geometry and regional stress tensor orientation and shape. These examples show that Quake-DFN can be used to simulate earthquake sequences and, most importantly, magnitudes, possibly induced or triggered by a fluid injection near a known fault system. 

SUMMARY Earthquakes come in clusters formed of mostly aftershock sequences, swarms and occasional foreshock sequences. This clustering is thought to result either from stress transfer among faults, a process referred to as cascading, or from transient loading by aseismic slip (pre-slip, afterslip or slow slip events). The ETAS statistical model is often used to quantify the fraction of clustering due to stress transfer and to assess the eventual need for aseismic slip to explain foreshocks or swarms. Another popular model of clustering relies on the earthquake nucleation model derived from experimental rate-and-state friction. According to this model, earthquakes cluster because they are time-advanced by the stress change imparted by the mainshock. This model ignores stress interactions among aftershocks and cannot explain foreshocks or swarms in the absence of transient loading. Here, we analyse foreshock, swarm and aftershock sequences resulting from cascades in a Discrete Fault Network model governed by rate-and-state friction. We show that the model produces realistic swarms, foreshocks and aftershocks. The Omori law, characterizing the temporal decay of aftershocks, emerges in all simulations independently of the assumed initial condition. In our simulations, the Omori law results from the earthquake nucleation process due to rate and state friction and from the heterogeneous stress changes due to the coseismic stress transfers. By contrast, the inverse Omori law, which characterizes the accelerating rate of foreshocks, emerges only in the simulations with a dense enough fault system. A high-density complex fault zone favours fault interactions and the emergence of an accelerating sequence of foreshocks. Seismicity catalogues generated with our discrete fault network model can generally be fitted with the ETAS model but with some material differences. In the discrete fault network simulations, fault interactions are weaker in aftershock sequences because they occur in a broader zone of lower fault density and because of the depletion of critically stressed faults. The productivity of the cascading process is, therefore, significantly higher in foreshocks than in aftershocks if fault zone complexity is high. This effect is not captured by the ETAS model of fault interactions. It follows that a foreshock acceleration stronger than expected from ETAS statistics does not necessarily require aseismic slip preceding the mainshock (pre-slip). It can be a manifestation of a cascading process enhanced by the topological properties of the fault network. Similarly, earthquake swarms might not always imply transient loading by aseismic slip, as they can emerge from stress interactions. 

We investigate the influence of thermal stresses on induced seismicity in the context of geothermal energy production at Brawley and Coso in California. We resort to thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling and used measurements of surface deformation to validate our simulations. We find that thermal stresses induced by fluid injections for geothermal energy production play an important role in either triggering or impeding seismicity. We speculate that thermal stresses may also play an important role in inducing fracturing and seismicity in other context of fluid injection for CO2 storage, disposal of wastewater or unconventional oil and gas production for example