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Abstract This paper describes stratospheric waves in ERA5 and evaluates the contributions of different types of waves to the driving of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Because of its higher spatial resolution compared to its predecessors, ERA5 is capable of resolving a broader spectrum of waves. It is shown that the resolved waves contribute to both eastward and westward accelerations near the equator, mainly by the way of the vertical flux of zonal momentum. The eastward accelerations by the resolved waves are mainly due to Kelvin waves and small-scale gravity (SSG) waves with zonal wavelengths smaller than 2000 km, whereas the westward accelerations are forced mainly by SSG waves, with smaller contributions from inertio-gravity and mixed Rossby–gravity waves. Extratropical Rossby waves disperse upward and equatorward into the tropical region and impart a westward acceleration to the zonal flow. They appear to be responsible for at least some of the irregularities in the QBO cycle.

Abstract The dynamics and momentum budget of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are examined in ERA5. Because of ERA5’s higher spatial resolution compared to its predecessors, it is capable of resolving a broader spectrum of atmospheric waves and allows for a better representation of the wave–mean flow interactions, both of which are of crucial importance for QBO studies. It is shown that the QBO-induced mean meridional circulation, which is mainly confined to the winter hemisphere, is strong enough to interrupt the tropical upwelling during the descent of the westerly shear zones. Since the momentum advection tends to damp the QBO, the wave forcing is responsible for both the downward propagation and for the maintenance of the QBO. It is shown that half the required wave forcing is provided by resolved waves during the descent of both westerly and easterly regimes. Planetary-scale waves account for most of the resolved wave forcing of the descent of westerly shear zones and small-scale gravity (SSG) waves with wavelengths shorter than 2000 km account for the remainder. SSG waves account for most of the resolved forcing of the descent of the easterly shear zones. The representation of the mean fields in the QBO is very similarmore »in ERA5 and ERA-Interim but the resolved wave forcing is substantially stronger in ERA5. The contributions of the various equatorially trapped wave modes to the QBO forcing are documented in Part II.« less

Abstract. Forecasts of Pacific jet variability are used to predictstratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and tropical-to-extratropicalmoisture export (TME) during boreal spring over the Pacific–North Americanregion. A retrospective analysis first documents the regionality of STT andTME for different Pacific jet patterns. Using these results as a guide,Pacific jet hindcasts, based on zonal-wind forecasts from the European Centrefor Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecasting System, areutilized to test whether STT and TME over specific geographic regions may bepredictable for subseasonal forecast leads (3–6 weeks ahead of time). Largeanomalies in STT to the mid-troposphere over the North Pacific, TME to thewest coast of the United States, and TME over Japan are found to have the bestpotential for subseasonal predictability using upper-level wind forecasts. STTto the planetary boundary layer over the intermountain west of the UnitedStates is also potentially predictable for subseasonal leads but likely onlyin the context of shifts in the probability of extreme events. While STT andTME forecasts match verifications quite well in terms of spatial structure andanomaly sign, the number of anomalous transport days is underestimatedcompared to observations. The underestimation of the number of anomaloustransport days exhibits a strong seasonal cycle, which becomes steadily worseas spring progresses into summer.

The exponential increase in precipitation with increasing column saturation fraction (CSF) is used to investigate the role of moisture in convective coupling. This simple empirical relationship between precipitation and CSF is shown to capture nearly all MJO-related variability in TRMM precipitation, ~80% of equatorial Rossby wave–related variability, and ~75% of east Pacific easterly wave–related variability. In contrast, this empirical relationship only captures roughly half of TRMM precipitation variability associated with Kelvin waves, African easterly waves, and mixed Rossby–gravity waves, suggesting coupling mechanisms other than moisture are playing leading roles in these phenomena. These latter phenomena have strong adiabatically forced vertical motions that could reduce static stability and convective inhibition while simultaneously moistening, creating a more favorable convective environment. Cross-spectra of precipitation and column-integrated dry static energy show enhanced coherence and an out-of-phase relationship in the Kelvin wave, mixed Rossby–gravity wave, and eastward inertio-gravity wave bands, supporting this narrative. The cooperative modulation of precipitation by moisture and temperature anomalies is shown to shorten the convective adjustment time scale (i.e., time scale by which moisture and precipitation are relaxed toward their “background” state) of these phenomena. Speeding the removal of moisture anomalies relative to that of temperature anomalies may allow the lattermore »to assume a more important role in driving moist static energy fluctuations, helping promote the gravity wave character of these phenomena.

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Realistically representing the multiscale interactions between moisture and tropical convection remains an ongoing challenge for weather prediction and climate models. In this study, we revisit the relationship between precipitation and column saturation fraction (CSF) by investigating their tendencies in CSF–precipitation space using satellite and radar observations, as well as reanalysis. A well-known, roughly exponential increase in precipitation occurs as CSF increases above a “critical point,” which acts as an attractor in CSF–precipitation space. Each movement away from and subsequent return toward the attractor results in a small net change of the coupled system, causing it to evolve in a cyclical fashion around the attractor. This cyclical evolution is characterized by shallow and convective precipitation progressively moistening the environment and strengthening convection, stratiform precipitation progressively weakening convection, and drying in the nonprecipitating and lightly precipitation regime. This behavior is evident across a range of spatiotemporal scales, suggesting that shortcomings in model representation of the joint evolution of convection and large-scale moisture will negatively impact a broad range of spatiotemporal scales. Novel process-level diagnostics indicate that several models, all implementing versions of the Zhang–McFarlane deep convective parameterization, exhibit unrealistic coupling between column moisture and convection.