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Creators/Authors contains: "Kuster, Charles"

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  1. Abstract Heavy precipitation events and their associated flooding can have major impacts on communities and stakeholders. There is a lack of knowledge, however, about how stakeholders make decisions at the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales (i.e., 2 weeks to 3 months). To understand how decisions are made and S2S predictions are or can be used, the project team for “Prediction of Rainfall Extremes at Subseasonal to Seasonal Periods” (PRES 2 iP) conducted a 2-day workshop in Norman, Oklahoma, during July 2018. The workshop engaged 21 professionals from environmental management and public safety communities across the contiguous United States in activities to understand their needs for S2S predictions of potential extended heavy precipitation events. Discussions and role-playing activities aimed to identify how workshop participants manage uncertainty and define extreme precipitation, the time scales over which they make key decisions, and the types of products they use currently. This collaboration with stakeholders has been an integral part of PRES 2 iP research and has aimed to foster actionable science. The PRES 2 iP team is using the information produced from this workshop to inform the development of predictive models for extended heavy precipitation events and to collaboratively design new forecast products with our stakeholders, empowering them to make more-informed decisions about potential extreme precipitation events. 
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  2. null (Ed.)
    A multi-radar analysis of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma, U.S. supercell is presented using three Weather Surveillance Radars 1988 Doppler (WSR-88Ds) and PX-1000, a rapid-scan, polarimetric, X-band radar, with a focus on the period between 1930 and 2008 UTC, encompassing supercell maturation through rapid tornado intensification. Owing to the 20-s temporal resolution of PX-1000, a detailed radar analysis of the hook echo is performed on (1) the microphysical characteristics through a hydrometeor classification algorithm (HCA)—inter-compared between X- and S-band for performance evaluation—including a hail and debris class and (2) kinematic properties of the low-level mesocyclone (LLM) assessed through ΔVr analyses. Four transient intensifications in ΔVr prior to tornadogenesis are documented and found to be associated with two prevalent internal rear-flank downdraft (RFD) momentum surges, the latter surge coincident with tornadogenesis. The momentum surges are marked by a rapidly advancing reflectivity (ZH) gradient traversing around the LLM, descending reflectivity cores (DRCs), a drop in differential reflectivity (ZDR) due to the advection of smaller drops into the hook echo, a decrease in correlation coefficient (ρhv), and the detection of debris from the HCA. Additionally, volumetric analyses of ZDR and specific differential phase (KDP) signatures show general diffusivity of the ZDR arc even after tornadogenesis in contrast with explosive deepening of the KDP foot downshear of the updraft. Similarly, while the vertical extent of the ZDR and KDP columns decrease leading up to tornadogenesis, the phasing of these signatures are offset after tornadogenesis, with the ZDR column deepening the lagging of KDP. 
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  3. null (Ed.)
    Abstract Tornadic supercells moved across parts of Oklahoma on the afternoon and evening of 9 May 2016. One such supercell, while producing a long-lived tornado, was observed by nearby WSR-88D radars to contain a strong anticyclonic velocity couplet on the lowest elevation angle. This couplet was located in a very atypical position relative to the ongoing cyclonic tornado and to the supercell’s updraft. A storm survey team identified damage near where this couplet occurred, and, in the absence of evidence refuting otherwise, the damage was thought to have been produced by an anticyclonic tornado. However, such a tornado was not seen in near-ground, high-resolution radar data from a much closer, rapid-scan, mobile radar. Rather, an elongated velocity couplet was observed only at higher elevation angles at altitudes similar to those at which the WSR-88D radars observed the strong couplet. This paper examines observations from two WSR-88D radars and a mobile radar from which it is argued that the anticyclonic couplet (and a similar one ~10 min later) were actually quasi-horizontal vortices centered ~1–1.5 km AGL. The benefits of having data from a radar much closer to the convective storm being sampled (e.g., better spatial resolution and near-ground data coverage) and providing more rapid volume updates are readily apparent. An analysis of these additional radar data provides strong, but not irrefutable, evidence that the anticyclonic tornado that may be inferred from WSR-88D data did not exist; consequently, upon discussions with the National Weather Service, it was not included in Storm Data. 
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