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  1. Abstract

    This study illustrates the considerable improvement in accuracy achievable for long‐lead forecasts (18 months) of the Ocean Niño Index (ONI) through the utilization of a long short‐term memory (LSTM) machine learning algorithm. The research assesses the predictive potential of eight predictors from both tropical and extratropical regions constructed based on sea surface temperature, outgoing longwave radiation, sea surface height and zonal and meridional wind anomalies. In comparison to linear regression model forecasts, the LSTM model outperforms them for both the tropical and extratropical predictor sets. Among all the predictors, the western North Pacific (WNP) index demonstrates the highest prediction skill in ONI forecasts, followed by the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) index and then the sea surface height index. While other predictors help the LSTM model to forecast either the phase variation of the amplitude variation of the observed ONI, the extratropical WNP predictor enables the LSTM model to forecast both variations. This superiority can be attributed to the involvement of SST anomalies in the WNP region in both tropical and extratropical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics, allowing for the utilization of predictive potential from both components of ENSO dynamics. The study also concludes that the extratropical ENSO dynamics provide a robust source of predictability for long‐lead ENSO forecasts, which can be effectively harnessed using the LSTM model.

     
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  2. Abstract Antarctic Bottom Water is primarily formed via overflows of dense shelf water (DSW) around the Antarctic continental margins. The dynamics of these overflows therefore influence the global abyssal stratification and circulation. Previous studies indicate that dense overflows can be unstable, energizing topographic Rossby waves (TRW) over the continental slope. However, it remains unclear how the wavelength and frequency of the TRWs are related to the properties of the overflowing DSW and other environmental conditions, and how the TRW properties influence the downslope transport of DSW. This study uses idealized high-resolution numerical simulations to investigate the dynamics of overflow-forced TRWs and the associated downslope transport of DSW. It is shown that the propagation of TRWs is constrained by the geostrophic along-slope flow speed of the DSW and by the dynamics of linear plane waves, allowing the wavelength and frequency of the waves to be predicted a priori. The rate of downslope DSW transport depends nonmonotonically on the slope steepness: steep slopes approximately suppress TRW formation, resulting in steady, frictionally dominated DSW descent. For slopes of intermediate steepness, the overflow becomes unstable and generates TRWs, accompanied by interfacial form stresses that drive DSW downslope relatively rapidly. For gentle slopes, the TRWs lead to the formation of coherent eddies that inhibit downslope DSW transport. These findings may explain the variable properties of TRWs observed in oceanic overflows, and they imply that the rate at which DSW descends to the abyssal ocean depends sensitively on the manifestation of TRWs and/or nonlinear eddies over the continental slope. 
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    A bstract The search for long-lived particles (LLP) is an exciting physics opportunity in the upcoming runs of the Large Hadron Collider. In this paper, we focus on a new search strategy of using the High Granularity Calorimeter (HGCAL), part of the upgrade of the CMS detector, in such searches. In particular, we demonstrate that the high granularity of the calorimeter allows us to see “shower tracks” in the calorimeter, and can play a crucial role in identifying the signal and suppressing the background. We study the potential reach of the HGCAL using a signal model in which the Standard Model Higgs boson decays into a pair of LLPs, h → XX . After carefully estimating the Standard Model QCD and the misreconstructed fake-track backgrounds, we give the projected reach for both an existing vector boson fusion trigger and a novel displaced-track-based trigger. Our results show that the best reach for the Higgs decay branching ratio, BR( h → XX ), in the vector boson fusion channel is about $$ \mathcal{O} $$ O (10 − 4 ) with lifetime cτ X ∼ 0 . 1–1 meters, while for the gluon gluon fusion channel it is about $$ \mathcal{O} $$ O (10 − 5 –10 − 6 ) for similar lifetimes. For longer lifetime cτ X ∼ 10 3 meters, our search could probe BR( h → XX ) down to a few × 10 − 4 (10 − 2 ) in the gluon gluon fusion (vector boson fusion) channels, respectively. In comparison with these previous searches, our new search shows enhanced sensitivity in complementary regions of the LLP parameter space. We also comment on many improvements can be implemented to further improve our proposed search. 
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  5. ABSTRACT Previous studies linked the increase of the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) rainfall to tropical Indian Ocean warming during extreme El Niños’ (e.g., 1982/83 and 1997/98 extreme El Niños) decaying summer. This study finds the linkage to be different for the recent 2015/16 extreme El Niño’s decaying summer, during which the above-normal rainfalls over MLRYR and northern China are respectively linked to southeastern Indian Ocean warming and western tropical Indian Ocean cooling in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The southeastern Indian Ocean warming helps to maintain the El Niño–induced anomalous lower-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific Ocean and southern China, which enhances moisture transport to increase rainfall over MLRYR. The western tropical Indian Ocean cooling first enhances the rainfall over central-northern India through a regional atmospheric circulation, the latent heating of which further excites a midlatitude Asian teleconnection pattern (part of circumglobal teleconnection) that results in an above-normal rainfall over northern China. The western tropical Indian Ocean cooling during the 2015/16 extreme El Niño is contributed by the increased upward latent heat flux anomalies associated with enhanced surface wind speeds, opposite to the earlier two extreme El Niños. 
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  6. Abstract Detection of a gravitational-wave signal of non-astrophysical origin would be a landmark discovery, potentially providing a significant clue to some of our most basic, big-picture scientific questions about the Universe. In this white paper, we survey the leading early-Universe mechanisms that may produce a detectable signal—including inflation, phase transitions, topological defects, as well as primordial black holes—and highlight the connections to fundamental physics. We review the complementarity with collider searches for new physics, and multimessenger probes of the large-scale structure of the Universe. 
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  7. Abstract We lay out a comprehensive physics case for a future high-energy muon collider, exploring a range of collision energies (from 1 to 100 TeV) and luminosities. We highlight the advantages of such a collider over proposed alternatives. We show how one can leverage both the point-like nature of the muons themselves as well as the cloud of electroweak radiation that surrounds the beam to blur the dichotomy between energy and precision in the search for new physics. The physics case is buttressed by a range of studies with applications to electroweak symmetry breaking, dark matter, and the naturalness of the weak scale. Furthermore, we make sharp connections with complementary experiments that are probing new physics effects using electric dipole moments, flavor violation, and gravitational waves. An extensive appendix provides cross section predictions as a function of the center-of-mass energy for many canonical simplified models. 
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