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  1. Free, publicly-accessible full text available January 1, 2023
  2. Background: COVID-19 vaccines have been approved and made available. While questions of vaccine allocation strategies have received significant attention, important questions remain regarding the potential impact of the vaccine given uncertainties regarding efficacy against transmission, availability, timing, and durability. Methods: We adapted a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to examine the potential impact on hospitalization and mortality assuming increasing rates of vaccine efficacy, coverage, and administration. We also evaluated the uncertainty of the vaccine to prevent infectiousness as well as the impact on outcomes based on the timing of distribution and the potential effects of waning immunity. Findings: Increased vaccine efficacy againstmore »disease reduces hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19; however, the relative benefit of transmission blocking varied depending on the timing of vaccine distribution. Early in an outbreak, a vaccine that reduces transmission will be relatively more effective than one introduced later in the outbreak. In addition, earlier and accelerated implementation of a less effective vaccine is more impactful than later implementation of a more effective vaccine. These findings are magnified when considering the durability of the vaccine. Vaccination in the spring will be less impactful when immunity is less durable. Interpretation: Policy choices regarding non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and face mask use, will need to remain in place longer if the vaccine is less effective at reducing transmission or distributed slower. In addition, the stage of the local outbreak greatly impacts the overall effectiveness of the vaccine in a region and should be considered when allocating vaccines.« less
  3. Abstract The prediction of reactor antineutrino spectra will play a crucial role as reactor experiments enter the precision era. The positron energy spectrum of 3.5 million antineutrino inverse beta decay reactions observed by the Daya Bay experiment, in combination with the fission rates of fissile isotopes in the reactor, is used to extract the positron energy spectra resulting from the fission of specific isotopes. This information can be used to produce a precise, data-based prediction of the antineutrino energy spectrum in other reactor antineutrino experiments with different fission fractions than Daya Bay. The positron energy spectra are unfolded to obtainmore »the antineutrino energy spectra by removing the contribution from detector response with the Wiener-SVD unfolding method. Consistent results are obtained with other unfolding methods. A technique to construct a data-based prediction of the reactor antineutrino energy spectrum is proposed and investigated. Given the reactor fission fractions, the technique can predict the energy spectrum to a 2% precision. In addition, we illustrate how to perform a rigorous comparison between the unfolded antineutrino spectrum and a theoretical model prediction that avoids the input model bias of the unfolding method.« less