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Abstract Navigating uncertainty is a critical challenge in all fields of science, especially when translating knowledge into real-world policies or management decisions. However, the wide variance in concepts and definitions of uncertainty across scientific fields hinders effective communication. As a microcosm of diverse fields within Earth Science, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) provides a useful crucible in which to identify cross-cutting concepts of uncertainty. The CMS convened the Uncertainty Working Group (UWG), a group of specialists across disciplines, to evaluate and synthesize efforts to characterize uncertainty in CMS projects. This paper represents efforts by the UWG to build a heuristic framework designed to evaluate data products and communicate uncertainty to both scientific and non-scientific end users. We consider four pillars of uncertainty: origins, severity, stochasticity versus incomplete knowledge, and spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Using a common vocabulary and a generalized workflow, the framework introduces a graphical heuristic accompanied by a narrative, exemplified through contrasting case studies. Envisioned as a versatile tool, this framework provides clarity in reporting uncertainty, guiding users and tempering expectations. Beyond CMS, it stands as a simple yet powerful means to communicate uncertainty across diverse scientific communities. 

La Niña climate anomalies have historically been associated with substantial reductions in the atmospheric CO₂growth rate. However, the 2021 La Niña exhibited a unique near-neutral impact on the CO₂growth rate. In this study, we investigate the underlying mechanisms by using an ensemble of net CO₂fluxes constrained by CO₂observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 in conjunction with estimates of gross primary production and fire carbon emissions. Our analysis reveals that the close-to-normal atmospheric CO₂growth rate in 2021 was the result of the compensation between increased net carbon uptake over the tropics and reduced net carbon uptake over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Specifically, we identify that the extreme drought and warm anomalies in Europe and Asia reduced the net carbon uptake and offset 72% of the increased net carbon uptake over the tropics in 2021. This study contributes to our broader understanding of how regional processes can shape the trajectory of atmospheric CO₂concentration under climate change. 

Abstract Water stress regulates land‐atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchanges in the tropics; however, its role remains poorly characterized due to the confounding roles of radiation, temperature and canopy dynamics. In particular, uncertainty stems from the relative roles of plant‐available water (supply) and atmospheric water vapor deficit (demand) as mechanistic drivers of photosynthetic carbon (C) uptake variability. Using satellite measurements of gravity, CO₂and fluorescence to constrain a mechanistic carbon‐water cycle model from 2001 to 2018, we found that the interannual variability (IAV) of water stress on photosynthetic C uptake was 52% greater than the combined effects of other factors. Surprisingly, the dominance of water stress on C uptake IAV was greater in the wet tropics (94%) than in the dry tropics (26%). Plant‐available water supply and atmospheric demand both contributed to the IAV of water stress on photosynthetic C uptake across the tropics, but the IAV of demand effects was 21% greater than the IAV of supply effects (33% greater in the wet tropics and 6% greater in the dry tropics). We found that the IAV of water stress on C uptake was 24% greater than the IAV of the combination of other factors in the net land‐atmosphere C sink in the whole tropics, 26% greater in the wet tropics, and 7% greater in the dry tropics. Given the recent trends in tropical precipitation and atmospheric humidity, our findings indicate that water stress——from both supply and demand——will likely dominate the climate response of land C sink across tropical ecosystems in the coming decades. 

Living tissues and some engineering materials contain water. When a wet material loses water, high triaxial tensile stress may build up and cause instability. The mechanism of instability under triaxial tension has attracted great attention, but quantitative study remains an ongoing chal- lenge. Here we develop an experimental method to apply well-controlled triaxial tensile stress and observe osmotic instability in situ. We synthesize a hydrogel in an elastomer tube with strong adhesion between them. The elastomer dissolves minute amount of water, but allows water to diffuse out and places the hydrogel under homogeneous, equal-triaxial, tensile stress. We develop a method to determine the stress as a function of time. The transparent setup enables observation of various types of osmotic instabilities, including cavity nucleation, crack propagation, and surface undulation. Notably, our method enables the measurement of crack speed from ~10−5 m/ s to a limit comparable to the Rayleigh wave speed ~1 m/s. We observe a large jump in crack speed at a critical energy release rate. This work opens opportunities to study the physics of soft materials under high triaxial tension. 

Abstract The Arctic–Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO₂fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic–Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO₂sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean ± standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, −548 ± 140 Tg C yr⁻¹; trend, −14 Tg C yr⁻¹;P < 0.001), more than 30% of the region was a net CO₂source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO₂sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic–Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, −319 ± 140 Tg C yr⁻¹; trend, −9 Tg C yr⁻¹), and the permafrost region becomes CO₂neutral (budget, −24 ± 123 Tg C yr⁻¹; trend, −3 Tg C yr⁻¹), underscoring the importance of fire in this region. 

Abstract CRISPR-Cas12a is an RNA-guided, programmable genome editing enzyme found within bacterial adaptive immune pathways. Unlike CRISPR-Cas9, Cas12a uses only a single catalytic site to both cleave target double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) (cis-activity) and indiscriminately degrade single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) (trans-activity). To investigate how the relative potency of cis- versus trans-DNase activity affects Cas12a-mediated genome editing, we first used structure-guided engineering to generate variants of Lachnospiraceae bacterium Cas12a that selectively disrupt trans-activity. The resulting engineered mutant with the biggest differential between cis- and trans-DNase activity in vitro showed minimal genome editing activity in human cells, motivating a second set of experiments using directed evolution to generate additional mutants with robust genome editing activity. Notably, these engineered and evolved mutants had enhanced ability to induce homology-directed repair (HDR) editing by 2–18-fold compared to wild-type Cas12a when using HDR donors containing mismatches with crRNA at the PAM-distal region. Finally, a site-specific reversion mutation produced improved Cas12a (iCas12a) variants with superior genome editing efficiency at genomic sites that are difficult to edit using wild-type Cas12a. This strategy establishes a pipeline for creating improved genome editing tools by combining structural insights with randomization and selection. The available structures of other CRISPR-Cas enzymes will enable this strategy to be applied to improve the efficacy of other genome-editing proteins. 

Abstract Atmospheric humidity and soil moisture in the Amazon forest are tightly coupled to the region’s water balance, or the difference between two moisture fluxes, evapotranspiration minus precipitation (ET-P). However, large and poorly characterized uncertainties in both fluxes, and in their difference, make it challenging to evaluate spatiotemporal variations of water balance and its dependence on ET or P. Here, we show that satellite observations of the HDO/H 2 O ratio of water vapor are sensitive to spatiotemporal variations of ET-P over the Amazon. When calibrated by basin-scale and mass-balance estimates of ET-P derived from terrestrial water storage and river discharge measurements, the isotopic data demonstrate that rainfall controls wet Amazon water balance variability, but ET becomes important in regulating water balance and its variability in the dry Amazon. Changes in the drivers of ET, such as above ground biomass, could therefore have a larger impact on soil moisture and humidity in the dry (southern and eastern) Amazon relative to the wet Amazon.