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Abundant proxy records suggest a profound reorganization of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~21,000 y ago), with the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) shoaling significantly relative to the present-day (PD) and forming Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water (GNAIW). However, almost all previous observational and modeling studies have focused on the zonal mean two-dimensional AMOC feature, while recent progress in the understanding of modern AMOC reveals a more complicated three-dimensional structure, with NADW penetrating from the subpolar North Atlantic to lower latitude through different pathways. Here, combining²³¹Pa/²³⁰Th reconstructions and model simulations, we uncover a significant change in the three-dimensional structure of the glacial AMOC. Specifically, the mid-latitude eastern pathway (EP), located east of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and transporting about half of the PD NADW from the subpolar gyre to the subtropical gyre, experienced substantial intensification during the LGM. A greater portion of the GNAIW was transported in the eastern basin during the LGM compared to NADW at the PD, resulting in opposite²³¹Pa/²³⁰Th changes between eastern and western basins during the LGM. Furthermore, in contrast to the wind-steering mechanism of EP at PD, the intensified LGM EP was caused primarily by the rim current forced by the basin-scale open-ocean convection over the subpolar North Atlantic. Our results underscore the importance of accounting for three-dimensional oceanographic changes to achieve more accurate reconstructions of past AMOC. 

Very high tropical alpine ice cores provide a distinct paleoclimate record for climate changes in the middle and upper troposphere. However, the climatic interpretation of a key proxy, the stable water oxygen isotopic ratio in ice cores (δ¹⁸O_ice), remains an outstanding problem. Here, combining proxy records with climate models, modern satellite measurements, and radiative-convective equilibrium theory, we show that the tropical δ¹⁸O_iceis an indicator of the temperature of the middle and upper troposphere, with a glacial cooling of −7.35° ± 1.1°C (66% CI). Moreover, it severs as a “Goldilocks-type” indicator of global mean surface temperature change, providing the first estimate of glacial stage cooling that is independent of marine proxies as −5.9° ± 1.2°C. Combined with all estimations available gives the maximum likelihood estimate of glacial cooling as −5.85° ± 0.51°C. 

Abstract Understanding the hydroclimate representations of precipitationδ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸O_p) in tropical South America (TSA) is crucial for climate reconstruction from available speleothem caves. Our preceding study (Part I) highlights a heterogeneous response in millennial hydroclimate over the TSA during the last deglaciation (20–11 ka before present), characterized by a northwest–southeast (NW–SE) dipole in both rainfall andδ¹⁸O_p, with opposite signs between central-western Amazon and eastern Brazil. Mechanisms of suchδ¹⁸O_pdipole response are further investigated in this study with the aid of moisture tagging simulations. In response to increased meltwater discharge, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) migrates southward, causing a moisture source location shift and depleting the isotopic value of the vapor transported into eastern Brazil, which almost entirely contributes to theδ¹⁸O_pdepletion in eastern Brazil (SE pole). In contrast, the moisture source location change and local condensation change (due to the lowering convergence level and increased rain reevaporation in unsaturated subcloud layers) contribute nearly equally to theδ¹⁸O_penrichment in the central-western Amazon (NW pole). Therefore, although a clear inverse relationship betweenδ¹⁸O_pand rainfall in both dipole regions seems to support the “amount effect,” we argue that the local rainfall amount only partially interprets the millennialδ¹⁸O_pchange in the central-western Amazon, whileδ¹⁸O_pdoes not document local rainfall change in eastern Brazil. Thus, the paleoclimate community should be cautious when usingδ¹⁸O_pas a proxy for past local precipitation in the TSA region. Finally, we discuss the discrepancy between the model and speleothem proxies on capturing the millennialδ¹⁸O_pdipole response and pose a challenge in reconciling the discrepancy. Significance StatementWe want to comprehensively understand the hydroclimate footprints ofδ¹⁸O_pand the mechanisms of the millennial variability ofδ¹⁸O_pover tropical South America with the help of water tagging experiments performed by the isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). We argue that the millennialδ¹⁸O_pchange in eastern Brazil mainly documents the moisture source location change associated with ITCZ migration and the change of the isotopic value of the incoming water vapor, instead of the local rainfall amount. In contrast, the central-western Amazon partially documents the moisture source location shift and local precipitation change. Our study cautions that one should not simply resort to the isotopic “amount effect” to reconstruct past precipitation in tropical regions without studying the mechanisms behind it. 

Abstract Oxygen isotope speleothems have been widely used to infer past climate changes over tropical South America (TSA). However, the spatial patterns of the millennial precipitation and precipitationδ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸O_p) response have remained controversial, and their response mechanisms are unclear. In particular, it is not clear whether the regional precipitation represents the intensity of the millennial South American summer monsoon (SASM). Here, we study the TSA hydroclimate variability during the last deglaciation (20–11 ka ago) by combining transient simulations of an isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM) and the speleothem records over the lowland TSA. Our model reasonably simulates the deglacial evolution of hydroclimate variables and water isotopes over the TSA, albeit underestimating the amplitude of variability. North Atlantic meltwater discharge is the leading factor driving the TSA’s millennial hydroclimate variability. The spatial pattern of both precipitation andδ¹⁸O_pshow a northwest–southeast dipole associated with the meridional migration of the intertropical convergence zone, instead of a continental-wide coherent change as inferred in many previous works on speleothem records. The dipole response is supported by multisource paleoclimate proxies. In response to increased meltwater forcing, the SASM weakened (characterized by a decreased low-level easterly wind) and consequently reduced rainfall in the western Amazon and increased rainfall in eastern Brazil. A similar dipole response is also generated by insolation, ice sheets, and greenhouse gases, suggesting an inherent stability of the spatial characteristics of the SASM regardless of the external forcing and time scales. Finally, we discuss the potential reasons for the model–proxy discrepancy and pose the necessity to build more paleoclimate proxy data in central-western Amazon. Significance StatementWe want to reconcile the controversy on whether there is a coherent or heterogeneous response in millennial hydroclimate over tropical South America and to clearly understand the forcing mechanisms behind it. Our isotope-enabled transient simulations fill the gap in speleothem reconstructions to capture a complete picture of millennial precipitation/δ¹⁸O_pand monsoon intensity change. We highlight a heterogeneous dipole response in precipitation andδ¹⁸O_pon millennial and orbital time scales. Increased meltwater discharge shifts ITCZ southward and favors a wet condition in coastal Brazil. Meanwhile, the low-level easterly and the summer monsoon intensity reduced, causing a dry condition in the central-western Amazon. However, the millennial variability of hydroclimate response is underestimated in our model, together with the lack of direct paleoclimate proxies in the central-west Amazon, complicating the interpretation of changes in specific paleoclimate events and posing a challenge to constraining the spatial range of the dipole. Therefore, we emphasize the necessity to increase the source of proxies, enhance proxy interpretations, and improve climate model performance in the future. 

North Atlantic cooling during Heinrich Stadial 1 triggered an east-west precipitation dipole over the tropical Indian Ocean.