Search for: All records

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) supplies vital rainfall for over one billion people. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) markedly affects the EASM, but its impacts are more robust following El Niño than La Niña. Here, we show that this asymmetry arises from the asymmetry in ENSO evolution: though most El Niño events last for one year, La Niña events often persist for 2-3 years. In the summers between consecutive La Niña events, the concurrent La Niña opposes the delayed effect of the preceding winter La Niña on the EASM, causing a reduction in the magnitude and coherence of climate anomalies. Results from a large ensemble climate model experiment corroborate and strengthen the observational analysis with an order of magnitude increase in sample size. The apparent asymmetry in the impacts of the ENSO on the EASM can be reduced by considering the concurrent ENSO, in addition to the ENSO state in the preceding winter. This has important implications for seasonal climate forecasts.

There is compelling evidence that atmospheric moisture may either increase or decrease midlatitude eddy kinetic energy (EKE). We reconcile these findings by using a hierarchy of idealized atmospheric models to demonstrate that moisture energizes individual eddies given fixed large-scale background winds and temperatures but makes those background conditions less favorable for eddy growth. For climates similar to the present day, the latter effect wins out, and moisture weakens midlatitude eddy activity. The model hierarchy includes a moist two-layer quasigeostrophic (QG) model and an idealized moist general circulation model (GCM). In the QG model, EKE increases when moisture is added to simulations with fixed baroclinicity, closely following a previously derived scaling. But in both models, moisture decreases EKE when environmental conditions are allowed to vary. We explain these results by examining the models’ mean available potential energy (MAPE) and by calculating terms in the models’ Lorenz energy cycles. In the QG model, the EKE decreases because precipitation preferentially forms on the poleward side of the jet, releasing latent heat where the model is relatively cold and decreasing the MAPE, hence the EKE. In the moist GCM, the MAPE primarily decreases because the midlatitude stability increases as the model is moistened, with reduced meridional temperature gradients playing a secondary role. Together, these results clarify moisture’s role in driving the midlatitude circulation and also highlight several drawbacks of QG models for studying moist processes in midlatitudes.

The mechanisms by which clouds impact the variability of the mid‐latitude atmosphere are poorly understood. We use an idealized, dry atmospheric model to investigate the relationship between Atmospheric Cloud Radiative Effects (ACRE) and annular mode persistence. We force the model with time‐varying diabatic heating that mimics the observed ACRE response to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Realistic ACRE forcing reduces annular mode persistence by 5 days (−16%), which we attribute to a weakening of low‐frequency eddy forcing via modified low‐level temperature gradients, though this effect is partly compensated by reduced frictional damping due to zonal wind anomalies becoming more top‐heavy. The persistence changes are nonlinear with respect to the amplitude of ACRE forcing, reflecting nonlinearities in the response of the eddy forcing. These results highlight the ACRE's impact on low‐frequency eddy forcing as the dominant cause of changes in annular mode persistence.

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is associated with a zonal band of strong precipitation that migrates meridionally over the seasonal cycle. Tropical precipitation also migrates zonally, such as from the South Asian monsoon in Northern Hemisphere summer (JJA) to the precipitation maximum of the west Pacific in Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF). To explore this zonal movement in the Indo-Pacific sector, we analyze the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation using a 2D energetic framework and study idealized atmosphere–ocean simulations with and without ocean dynamics. In the observed seasonal cycle, an atmospheric energy and precipitation anomaly forms over South Asia in northern spring and summer due to heating over land. It is then advected eastward into the west Pacific in northern autumn and remains there due to interactions with the Pacific cold tongue and equatorial easterlies. We interpret this phenomenon as a “monsoonal mode,” a zonally propagating moist energy anomaly of continental and seasonal scale. To understand the behavior of the monsoonal mode, we develop and explore an analytical model in which the monsoonal mode is advected by low-level winds, is sustained by interaction with the ocean, and decays due to the free tropospheric mixing of energy.

Northern Mexico is home to more than 32 million people and is of significant agricultural and economic importance for the country. The region includes three distinct hydroclimatic regions, all of which regularly experience severe dryness and flooding and are highly susceptible to future changes in precipitation. To date, little work has been done to characterize future trends in either mean or extreme precipitation over northern Mexico. To fill this gap, we investigate projected precipitation trends over the region in the NA-CORDEX ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations. We first verify that these simulations accurately reproduce observed precipitation over northern Mexico, as derived from the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) product, demonstrating that the NA-CORDEX ensemble is appropriate for studying precipitation trends over the region. By the end of the century, simulations forced with a high-emissions scenario project that both mean and extreme precipitation will decrease to the west and increase to the east of the Sierra Madre highlands, decreasing the zonal gradient in precipitation. We also find that the North American monsoon, which is responsible for a substantial fraction of the precipitation over the region, is likely to start later and last approximately three weeks longer. The frequency of extreme precipitation events is expected to double throughout the region, exacerbating the flood risk for vulnerable communities in northern Mexico. Collectively, these results suggest that the extreme precipitation-related dangers that the region faces, such as flooding, will increase significantly by the end of the century, with implications for the agricultural sector, economy, and infrastructure.