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Abstract This paper describes Epihiper, a state-of-the-art, high performance computational modeling framework for epidemic science. The Epihiper modeling framework supports custom disease models, and can simulate epidemics over dynamic, large-scale networks while supporting modulation of the epidemic evolution through a set of user-programmable interventions. The nodes and edges of the social-contact network have customizable sets of static and dynamic attributes which allow the user to specify intervention target sets at a very fine-grained level; these also permit the network to be updated in response to nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as school closures. The execution of interventions is governed by trigger conditions, which are Boolean expressions formed using any of Epihiper’s primitives (e.g. the current time, transmissibility) and user-defined sets (e.g. people with work activities). Rich expressiveness, extensibility, and high-performance computing responsiveness were central design goals to ensure that the framework could effectively target realistic scenarios at the scale and detail required to support the large computational designs needed by state and federal public health policymakers in their efforts to plan and respond in the event of epidemics. The modeling framework has been used to support the CDC Scenario Modeling Hub for COVID-19 response, and was a part of a hybrid high-performance cloud system that was nominated as a finalist for the 2021 ACM Gordon Bell Special Prize for high performance computing-based COVID-19 Research. 

We present MacKenzie, a HPC-driven multi-cluster workflow system that was used repeatedly to configure and execute fine-grained US national-scale epidemic simulation models during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mackenzie supported federal and Virginia policymakers, in real-time, for a large number of “what-if” scenarios during the COVID-19 pandemic, and continues to be used to answer related questions as COVID-19 transitions to the endemic stage of the disease. MacKenzie is a novel HPC meta-scheduler that can execute US-scale simulation models and associated workflows that typically present significant big data challenges. The meta-scheduler optimizes the total execution time of simulations in the workflow, and helps improve overall human productivity. As an exemplar of the kind of studies that can be conducted using Mackenzie, we present a modeling study to understand the impact of vaccine-acceptance in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the US. We use a 288 million node synthetic social contact network (digital twin) spanning all 50 US states plus Washington DC, comprised of 3300 counties, with 12 billion daily interactions. The highly-resolved agent-based model used for the epidemic simulations uses realistic information about disease progression, vaccine uptake, production schedules, acceptance trends, prevalence, and social distancing guidelines. Computational experiments show that, for the simulation workload discussed above, MacKenzie is able to scale up well to 10 K CPU cores. Our modeling results show that, when compared to faster and accelerating vaccinations, slower vaccination rates due to vaccine hesitancy cause averted infections to drop from 6.7M to 4.5M, and averted total deaths to drop from 39.4 K to 28.2 K across the US. This occurs despite the fact that the final vaccine coverage is the same in both scenarios. We also find that if vaccine acceptance could be increased by 10% in all states, averted infections could be increased from 4.5M to 4.7M (a 4.4% improvement) and total averted deaths could be increased from 28.2 K to 29.9 K (a 6% improvement) nationwide. 

Motivated by a wide range of applications, research on agent-based models of contagion propagation over networks has attracted a lot of attention in the literature. Many of the available software systems for simulating such agent-based models require users to download software, build the executable, and set up execution environments. Further, running the resulting executable may require access to high performance computing clusters. Our work describes an open access software system (NetSimS) that works under the “Modeling and Simulation as a Service” (MSaaS) paradigm. It enables users to run simulations by selecting models and parameter values, initial conditions, and networks through a web interface. The system supports a variety of models and networks with millions of nodes and edges. In addition to the simulator, the system includes components that enable users to choose initial conditions for simulations in a variety of ways, to analyze the data generated through simulations, and to produce plots from the data. We describe the components of NetSimS and carry out a performance evaluation of the system. We also discuss two case studies carried out on large networks using the system. NetSimS is a major component within net.science, a cyberinfrastructure for network science. 

Networkrepresentationsofsocio-physicalsystemsareubiquitous,examplesbeingsocial(media)networks and infrastructurenetworkslikepowertransmissionandwatersystems.Themanysoftwaretoolsthatanalyze and visualizenetworks,andcarryoutsimulationsonthem,requiredifferentgraphformats.Consequently, it isimportanttodevelopsoftwareforconvertinggraphsthatarerepresentedinagivensourceformatintoa required representationinadestinationformat.Fornetwork-basedcomputations,graphconversionisakey capability thatfacilitatesinteroperabilityamongsoftwaretools.Thispaperdescribessuchasystemcalled GraphTrans to convertgraphsamongdifferentformats.Thissystemispartofanewcyberinfrastructure for networksciencecalled net.science. Wepresentthe GraphTrans system designandimplementation, results fromaperformanceevaluation,andacasestudytodemonstrateitsutility. 

Wedescribeasoftwaresystemcalled ExecutionManager (abbreviated EM) thatcontrolstheexecutionof third-party software(TPS)foranalyzingnetworks.Basedonaconfigurationfilethatcontainsaspecification for theexecutionofeachTPS,thesystemlaunchesanynumberofstand-aloneTPScodes,iftheprojected executiontimeandthegraphsizearewithinuser-imposedlimits.Asystemcapabilityistoestimate the runningtimeofaTPScodeonagivennetworkthroughregressionanalysis,tosupportexecution decision-making by EM. Wedemonstratetheusefulnessof EM in generatingnetworkstructureparameters and distributions,andinextractingmeta-datainformationfromtheseresults.Weevaluateitsperformance on directedandundirected,simpleandmulti-edgegraphsthatrangeinsizeoversevenordersofmagnitude in numbersofedges,upto1.5billionedges.Thesoftwaresystemispartofacyberinfrastructurecalled net.science for networkscience. 

Contagion dynamics on networks are used to study many problems, including disease and virus epidemics, incarceration, obesity, protests and rebellions, needle sharing in drug use, and hurricane and other natural disaster events. Simulators to study these problems range from smaller-scale serial codes to large-scale distributed systems. In recent years, Python-based simulation systems have been built. In this work, we describe a new Python-based agent-based simulator called CSonNet. It differs from codes such as Epidemics on Networks in that it performs discrete time simulations based on the graph dynamical systems formalism. CSonNet is a parallel code; it implements concurrency through an embarrassingly parallel approach of running multiple simulation instances on a user-specified number of forked processes. It has a modeling framework whereby agent models are composed using a set of pre-defined state transition rules. We provide strong-scaling performance results and case studies to illustrate its features. 

Networks are readily identifiable in many aspects of society: cellular telephone networks and social networks are two common examples. Networks are studied within many academic disciplines. Consequently, a large body of (open-source) software is being produced to perform computations on networks. A cyberinfrastructure for network science, called net.science, is being built to provide a computational platform and resource for both producers and consumers of networks and software tools. This tutorial is a hands-on demonstration of some of net.science’s features.