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Creators/Authors contains: "McCoy, Scott W"

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  1. Predicting where runoff‐generated debris flows might occur during rainfall on steep, recently burned terrain is challenging. Studies of mass‐movement processes in unburned areas indicate that event locations are well‐predicted by rainfall anomaly,R*, in which peak observed rainfall is normalized by local rainfall climatology. Here, we use remote and field methods to map debris flows triggered within the 2020 Dolan Fire burn area in coastal California, demonstrate that a short‐durationR*metric predicts debris‐flow occurrence more effectively than absolute peak intensity or longer‐duration rainfall metrics, and show that incorporating anR*criterion into an existing debris‐flow likelihood model can reduce false positive predictions and improve accuracy. We testR* at three other climatically distinct fires in California, demonstrating its utility for mapping likely debris‐flow locations in different climates. We also consider howR*can benefit postfire debris‐flow prediction given recent increases in climatological variability within individual burn perimeters. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available August 28, 2026
  2. The size, frequency, and geographic scope of severe wildfires are expanding across the globe, including in the Western United States. Recently burned steeplands have an increased likelihood of debris flows, which pose hazards to downstream communities. The conditions for postfire debris‐flow initiation are commonly expressed as rainfall intensity‐duration thresholds, which can be estimated given sufficient observational history. However, the spread of wildfire across diverse climates poses a challenge for accurate threshold prediction in areas with limited observations. Studies of mass‐movement processes in unburned areas indicate that thresholds vary with local climate, such that higher rainfall rates are required for initiation in climates characterized by frequent intense rainfall. Here, we use three independent methods to test whether initiation of postfire runoff‐generated debris flows across the Western United States varies similarly with climate. Through the compilation of observed thresholds at various fires, analysis of the spatial density of observed debris flows, and quantification of feature importance at different spatial scales, we show that postfire debris‐flow initiation thresholds vary systematically with short‐duration rainfall‐intensity climatology. The predictive power of climatological data sets that are readily available before a fire occurs offers a much‐needed tool for hazard management in regions that are facing increased wildfire activity, have sparse observational history, and/or have limited resources for field‐based hazard assessment. Furthermore, if the observed variation in thresholds reflects long‐term adjustment of the landscape to local climate, rapid shifts in rainfall intensity related to climate change will likely induce spatially variable shifts in postfire debris‐flow likelihood. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available June 1, 2026
  3. Waterfalls are often interpreted as transient, upstream‐propagating features that mark changes in external conditions. Thus, waterfalls are commonly used to infer past tectonic and climatic forcing, making understanding the controls on waterfall erosion central to predicting how external perturbations move through landscapes. Surprisingly, there exist few direct field measurements of waterfall erosion, and existing waterfall retreat measurements are rarely paired with measurements of waterfall morphology and frequency, which, theory suggests, modulate retreat rates. This lack of data limits our ability to test existing theory and explore how waterfalls alter reach‐scale bedrock erosion rates. Here, we use cosmogenic10Be accumulated in bedrock riverbeds to measure erosion rates in fluvial reaches with varying waterfall frequency and morphology. We find that waterfall‐rich reaches erode one to five times faster than the landscape average, and that reach‐averaged erosion rates increase with increasing waterfall frequency. We develop a new, process‐based model combining waterfall and planar‐channel erosion to explore mechanistic controls on the relative erosion rate between waterfall‐rich and waterfall‐free reaches. This model predicts that reach‐averaged erosion rates increase with waterfall frequency at low sediment supply, consistent with our field measurements, but that waterfalls can also slow reach‐averaged erosion rates for high sediment supply, large grain sizes, low water discharge, or large plunge pools. Our work is consistent with previous suggestions that waterfall erosion rates may decrease in low drainage areas and can influence long‐profile morphology. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2025
  4. Abstract. Debris flows regularly traverse bedrock channels that dissect steep landscapes, but our understanding of bedrock erosion by debris flows and their impact on steepland morphology is still rudimentary. Quantitative models of steep bedrock channel networks are based on geomorphic transport laws designed to represent erosion by water-dominated flows. To quantify the impact of debris flow erosion on steep channel network form, it is first necessary to develop methods to estimate spatial variations in bulk debris flow properties (e.g., flow depth, velocity) throughout the channel network that can be integrated into landscape evolution models. Here, we propose and evaluate two methods to estimate spatial variations in bulk debris flow properties along the length of a channel profile. We incorporate both methods into a model designed to simulate the evolution of longitudinal channel profiles that evolve in response to debris flow and fluvial processes. To explore this model framework, we propose a general family of debris flow erosion laws where erosion rate is a function of debris flow depth and channel slope. Model results indicate that erosion by debris flows can explain the occurrence of a scaling break in the slope–area curve at low-drainage areas and that upper-network channel morphology may be useful for inferring catchment-averaged erosion rates in quasi-steady landscapes. Validating specific forms of a debris flow incision law, however, would require more detailed model–data comparisons in specific landscapes where input parameters and channel morphometry can be better constrained. Results improve our ability to interpret topographic signals within steep channel networks and identify observational targets critical for constraining a debris flow incision law. 
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  5. Weathering and transport of potentially acid generating material (PAGM) at abandoned mines can degrade downstream environments and contaminate water resources. Monitoring the thousands of abandoned mine lands (AMLs) for exposed PAGM using field surveys is time intensive. Here, we explore the use of Remotely Piloted Aerial Systems (RPASs) as a complementary remote sensing platform to map the spatial and temporal changes of PAGM across a mine waste rock pile on an AML. We focus on testing the ability of established supervised and unsupervised classification algorithms to map PAGM on imagery with very high spatial resolution, but low spectral sampling. At the Perry Canyon, NV, USA AML, we carried out six flights over a 29-month period, using a RPAS equipped with a 5-band multispectral sensor measuring in the visible to near infrared (400–1000 nm). We built six different 3 cm resolution orthorectified reflectance maps, and our tests using supervised and unsupervised classifications revealed benefits to each approach. Supervised classification schemes allowed accurate mapping of classes that lacked published spectral libraries, such as acid mine drainage (AMD) and efflorescent mineral salts (EMS). The unsupervised method produced similar maps of PAGM, as compared to supervised schemes, but with little user input. Our classified multi-temporal maps, validated with multiple field and lab-based methods, revealed persistent and slowly growing ‘hotspots’ of jarosite on the mine waste rock pile, whereas EMS exhibit more rapid fluctuations in extent. The mapping methods we detail for a RPAS carrying a broadband multispectral sensor can be applied extensively to AMLs. Our methods show promise to increase the spatial and temporal coverage of accurate maps critical for environmental monitoring and reclamation efforts over AMLs. 
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  6. Abstract Steep landscapes evolve largely by debris flows, in addition to fluvial and hillslope processes. Abundant field observations document that debris flows incise valley bottoms and transport substantial sediment volumes, yet their contributions to steepland morphology remain uncertain. This has, in turn, limited the development of debris‐flow incision rate formulations that produce morphology consistent with natural landscapes. In many landscapes, including the San Gabriel Mountains (SGM), California, steady‐state fluvial channel longitudinal profiles are concave‐up and exhibit a power‐law relationship between channel slope and drainage area. At low drainage areas, however, valley slopes become nearly constant. These topographic forms result in a characteristically curved slope‐area signature in log‐log space. Here, we use a one‐dimensional landform evolution model that incorporates debris‐flow erosion to reproduce the relationship between this curved slope‐area signature and erosion rate in the SGM. Topographic analysis indicates that the drainage area at which steepland valleys transition to fluvial channels correlates with measured erosion rates in the SGM, and our model results reproduce these relationships. Further, the model only produces realistic valley profiles when parameters that dictate the relationship between debris‐flow erosion, valley‐bottom slope, and debris‐flow depth are within a narrow range. This result helps place constraints on the mathematical form of a debris‐flow incision law. Finally, modeled fluvial incision outpaces debris‐flow erosion at drainage areas less than those at which valleys morphologically transition from near‐invariant slopes to concave profiles. This result emphasizes the critical role of debris‐flow incision for setting steepland form, even as fluvial incision becomes the dominant incisional process. 
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  7. Abstract River profiles are shaped by climatic and tectonic history, lithology, and internal feedbacks between flow hydraulics, sediment transport and erosion. In steep channels, waterfalls may self‐form without changes in external forcing (i.e., autogenic formation) and erode at rates faster or slower than an equivalent channel without waterfalls. We use a 1‐D numerical model to investigate how self‐formed waterfalls alter the morphology of bedrock river longitudinal profiles. We modify the standard stream power model to include a slope threshold above which waterfalls spontaneously form and a rate constant allowing waterfalls to erode faster or slower than other fluvial processes. Using this model, we explore how waterfall formation alters both steady state and transient longitudinal profile forms. Our model predicts that fast waterfalls create km‐scale reaches in a dynamic equilibrium with channel slope held approximately constant at the threshold slope for waterfall formation, while slow waterfalls can create local channel slope maxima at the location of slow waterfall development. Furthermore, slow waterfall profiles integrate past base level histories, leading to multiple possible profile forms, even at steady‐state. Consistency between our model predictions and field observations of waterfall‐rich rivers in the Kings and Kaweah drainages in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, supports the hypothesis that waterfall formation can modulate river profiles in nature. Our findings may help identify how bedrock channels are influenced by waterfall erosion and aid in distinguishing between signatures of external and internal perturbations, thereby strengthening our ability to interpret past climate and tectonic changes from river longitudinal profiles. 
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  8. Facets formed along the footwalls of active normal‐fault blocks display a variety of longitudinal profile forms, with variations in gradient, shape, degree of soil cover, and presence or absence of a slope break at the fault trace. We show that a two‐dimensional, process‐oriented cellular automaton model of facet profile evolution can account for the observed morphologic diversity. The model uses two dimensionless parameters to represent fault slip, progressive rock weathering, and downslope colluvial‐soil transport driven by gravity and stochastic disturbance events. The parameters represent rock weathering and soil disturbance rates, respectively, scaled by fault slip rate; both can be derived from field‐estimated rate coefficients. In the model's transport‐limited regime, slope gradient depends on the ratio of disturbance to slip rate, with a maximum that represents the angle of repose for colluvium. In this regime, facet evolution is consistent with nonlinear diffusion models of soil‐mantled hillslope evolution. Under the weathering‐limited regime, bedrock becomes partly exposed but microtopography helps trap some colluvium even when facet gradient exceeds the threshold angle. Whereas the model predicts a continuous gradient from footwall to colluvial wedge under transport‐limited behavior, fully weathering‐limited facets tend to develop a slope break between footwall and basal colluvium as a result of reduced transport efficiency on the rocky footwall slope. To the extent that the model provides a reasonable analogy for natural facets, its behavior suggests that facet profile morphology can provide useful constraints on relative potential rates of rock weathering, soil disturbance, and fault slip. 
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